Making unilateral trade liberalisation beneficial to the poor

In this paper, we investigate the impacts of unilateral import liberalisation by a representative South Asian developing economy, Nepal, and demonstrate those conditions required to make the impacts ‘pro-poor.’ Applying the Computable General Equilibrium model to Social Accounting Matrix data, we conclude that import liberalisation is growth-enhancing but that, unfortunately, the rich benefit more than do the poor. We envisage a restructured but plausible model economy that requires a transformational period of ten years, and simulate unilateral trade liberalisation but, in the context of a dynamic model. We conclude that improvement in efficiency parameters, reorganisation of investment patterns, along with reallocation of factors of production by both household group and activity type are required to make growth accrued by import liberalisation ‘pro-poor’ in developing economies such as that of Nepal.     

药品不良反应损害补偿制度相关理论探讨

目的:探讨我国建立药品不良反应(ADR)补偿制度的理论基础。方法:根据我国国情分析我国ADR补偿制度的理论依据。结论:运用公平原则和企业社会责任建立适合我国国情的ADR补偿制度势在必行。     

Restricted forecasting with VAR models: An analysis of a test for joint compatibility between restrictions and forecasts

A restricted forecasting compatibility test for Vector Autoregressive Error Correction models is analyzed in this work. It is shown that a variance–covariance matrix associated with the restrictions can be used to cancel out model dynamics and interactions between restrictions. This allows us to interpret the joint compatibility test as a composition of the corresponding single restriction compatibility tests. These tests are useful for appreciating the contribution of each and every restriction to the joint compatibility between the whole set of restrictions and the unrestricted forecasts. An estimated process adjustment for the test is derived and the resulting feasible joint compatibility test turns out to have better performance than the original one. An empirical illustration of the usefulness of the proposed test makes use of Mexican macroeconomic data and the targets proposed by the Mexican Government for the year 2003.     

The local impact of typhoons on economic activity in China: A view from outer space

We examine the impact of typhoons on local economic activity in coastal China. To capture potential damages from an individual typhoon we use historical typhoon track data in conjunction with a detailed wind-field model. We then combine our damage proxy with satellite derived nightlight intensity data to construct a panel data set that allows us to estimate the impact of typhoons at a spatially highly disaggregated level (approx. 1 km). Our results show that typhoons have a negative and significant, but short-term, impact on local activity – a typhoon that is estimated to destroy 50% of the property reduces local economic activity by 20% for that year. Over our period of analysis (1992–2010) total net economic losses are estimated to be in the region of $US 28.34 billion. To assess the damage risk from future typhoons we use simulated probability distributions of typhoon occurrence and intensity and combine these with our estimated effects. Results suggest that expected annual losses are likely to be around $US 0.54 billion.     

Regional integration: an empirical assessment of Russia

Using a statistical model of commodity trade, we quantify the evolution of regional economic integration within Russia during 1995–1999, and explore potential determinants of this evolution. Our integration measure exhibits rich regional variation that, when aggregated to the national level, fluctuates substantially over time. In accounting for this behavior, we draw in part on theoretical models that emphasize the potential role of openness to international trade and regional disparities in income in threatening economic integration. Controlling for a host of additional regional- and national-level variables, we find a strong negative correspondence between openness to international trade and internal economic integration.     

Is there a diversification “cost” of Shari’ah compliance? Empirical evidence from Malaysian equities

Islamic equity portfolios work with a smaller investment universe given the filtering of non-Shari’ah compliant stocks. It has been theoretically argued that this culminates in suboptimal portfolio diversification, which in turn adversely affects risk-adjusted returns. We offer empirical evidence that such a conceived portfolio diversification “penalty” is far from a foregone conclusion, at least empirically. Our results tend to indicate that Islamic portfolios are not invariably handicapped in terms of portfolio diversification. We also explored dimensions that may account for differences in the relative investment performance between Islamic and conventional portfolios, such as portfolio constraints, short selling and market conditions. We believe this paper is among the first to apply substantial empirical analysis specifically with respect to the portfolio diversification perspective on Islamic equity investments.     

省际贸易对中国经济增长的贡献研究

研究目标：考察省际贸易对经济增长的贡献。研究方法：区分结构影响与部门影响的因素分解模型。研究发现：第一,消费对中国经济增长的贡献比重在下降;省际调出因素和出口因素的贡献比重在上升。第二,1987年,省际调出仅在3个省份是经济增长的第一贡献因素;2007年,省际调出则在11个省份成为经济增长的第一贡献因素。第三,从省份视角看,尽管出口对经济增长的贡献比重在上升,但在2007年,省际调出贡献比重仍然是出口贡献比重的3.5倍;从部门视角看,省际调出的贡献比重也依然大于出口的贡献比重。第四,在将因素贡献比重变化的来源区分为结构影响与部门影响之后,不管是消费贡献比重的下降,还是省际调出和出口贡献比重的上升,部门影响均发挥着主导作用。研究创新：将省际贸易引入关于经济增长的因素分解模型。研究价值：对于目前步入“新常态”的中国经济,省际贸易可以成为未来中国经济新的增长点。     

基于融资考虑对股权回报率确定方法的选择

上市公司在股票市场上融资时面临两类融资考虑问题:其一是资本结构的"溢出效应",它提高了股权回报率;其二是市场投资者的认知偏差,它可能提高或者降低要求的股权回报率。FAR与NEER是确定股权回报率的两类截然不同的方法:FAR有利于实现公司价值最大化目标,而NEER能够促使短期股价最大化。在通过比较这两类方法的异同后指出,在不同的融资考虑组合下,公司应根据自身情况选择适合的方法确定项目投资要求的股权回报率。     

Longitudinal analysis of entrepreneurship and competitiveness dynamics in Latin America

This study analyzes the relationship between entrepreneurial dynamics in Latin-American countries and the level of competitiveness these countries show. Based on the research conducted by Wennekers et al. [Small Business Economics, 24(3):293–309, 2005] that demonstrates a U-shaped relationship between the country’s rate of entrepreneurship and its level of competitiveness and economic development, we hypothesize that Latin-American countries have a descending behaviour under the U-shaped curve approach. The results from three regression models support this hypothesis and suggest that competitiveness and economic growth deter entrepreneurial dynamics on Latin-American countries. We discuss that Latin-American countries need to improve some structural factors to achieve a high level of entrepreneurial dynamics.

我国房地产上市公司绩效测算与比较

为了解我国房地产企业的绩效状况,以经济增加值作为绩效的代表指标,选取沪深A股91家房地产上市公司为样本,测算其2001-2012年绩效并开展产业内外的对比分析。结果显示：（1）2001—2012年,以经济增加值衡量的样本房地产上市公司绩效均值为0．99,不同房地产上市公司之间绩效差异程度较大,低于平均绩效水平的样本公司数量较多,样本公司的绩效均值在2006年以前为负,2006年以后为正;（2）房地产上市公司的绩效均值高于建筑业上市公司但低于制造业上市公司,不同所有权结构、地域和主营业务的公司绩效均值差异较大。