新兴产业的投资扩张、产品补贴与资源错配

研究目标：分析新兴产业资源错配程度以及投资扩张、产品补贴对资源错配的影响。研究方法：在H&K模型基础上,通过推导静态一般均衡求解模型测算2009～2014年中国光电产业的资源配置效率。研究发现：中国光电产业存在较为严重的资源配置扭曲,导致光电企业全要素生产率过低;“双反”加速了光电企业的优胜劣汰,在一定程度上提升了资源配置效率;政府扶持与地区间竞争所引致的投资扩张是引发光电产业资源配置效率低下的主要原因。研究创新：构建单一产业下基于一般均衡求解的资源错配模型,并从资源错配视角衡量产业政策效应。研究价值：有利于短期扶持性政策更好地发挥生产率增长效应。     

Stage-gate process for life sciences and medical innovation investment

Life science innovation has led to significant improvements in clinical outcomes and has been a source of financial growth for individuals and institutions capable of performing appropriate investments in this sector. Several groups have developed methodologies to assist medical technology innovators in the design and development activities. Unfortunately, these tools have not aided the general investment community to profit from these enterprises. This situation has contributed to a general reduction in risk capital directed towards life sciences compared to other industries. We review the current investment practices in the life science sector and present a comprehensive stage-gate model that aims to captures this investment process. An analysis of best practices and in-depth interviews with 68 life sciences investors and entrepreneurs worldwide are used to support such model. A single case-control study comparing life science investment execution within two similar investment firms was conducted to evaluate feasibility in the implementation of these practices. The stage-gate model includes (I) General vision and investment strategy definition; (II) Venture search, screening and rapid pre-evaluation; (III) Due diligence and negotiation of terms; (IV) Portfolio management, evaluation, and exit. The difference in execution of investment and results from a post-performance Root Cause Analysis were consistent with a reduction in perceived risk from the case company trained with the proposed model compared to the control. This suggests that our developed model and process may be useful in encouraging life sciences investment via evidence-based evaluations.     

The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample

We empirically assess whether the negative response of private consumption and private investment to fiscal consolidation usually expected is reversed. We focus on a sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018 to determine episodes of fiscal consolidations using three alternative measures of the cyclically adjusted primary balance: (1) an International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Economic Outlook (WEO) based measure, (2) a Hodrick-Prescott–based measure, and (3) a measure based on Hamilton (2018). We find that, first, increases in government consumption have a Keynesian effect on real per capita private consumption; second, tax increases have a positive effect on private consumption when a fiscal consolidation occurs; and, third, fiscal contraction has a crowding-in effect on private investment. Moreover, expansionary fiscal consolidations occur in highly indebted advanced economies, in particular, after an increase in taxes. We conclude that the negative effects of taxation on private consumption are larger when developing economies are experiencing a financial crisis and are not consolidating.     

What has caused China’s economic growth?

Economic growth is driven by numerous factors. However, traditional economic theory focuses on certain key reasons, while ignoring the impact of other factors. Since 1978, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth, but also faces low per capita GDP. To clarify the driving forces behind this situation, we used per capita GDP to represent China’s economic growth and performed total factor analysis based on 13 variables in 7 socioeconomic dimensions using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the 40 years since China opened to the west in 1978. We found similar determinants in different regressions. Internal trade, privatization and investment were the primary factors driving Chinese economic development. Surprisingly, we found that the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth (per capita GDP) was weak. Education had a much smaller contribution than science and technology. Using per capita income as the dependent variable to provide a robustness test, we found that China’s income distribution has not paralleled its economic development and the distribution of the benefits of GDP growth to citizens must be improved. China’s experience demonstrates that promoting economic growth requires coordinated development of many factors, and that different policy preferences should be adopted to meet different economic development conditions.     

Equilibrium mean–variance reinsurance and investment strategies for a general insurance company under smooth ambiguity

This work investigates the equilibrium investment and reinsurance strategies for a general insurance company under smooth ambiguity. The general insurance company holds shares of an insurance company and a reinsurance company. The claims of the insurer follow a compound Poisson process. The insurer can divide part of the insurance risk to the reinsurer. Besides, the insurer and reinsurer both participate in the financial market and invest in cash and stock. However, the general insurance company is ambiguous about the insurance and financial risks and is an ambiguity-averse manager (AAM). The uncertainties over the insurance and financial risks are described by second-order distributions. The AAM aims to maximize the average performance of the weighted sum surplus process of the insurer and reinsurer under the mean–variance criterion and smooth ambiguity. We present the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) system for the optimization problem combining the mean–variance criterion and smooth ambiguity. In the case that the second-order distributions are Gaussian, we obtain the closed-forms of the equilibrium reinsurance and investment strategies. At the end of this work, sensitivity analyses are presented to show the economic behaviors of the AAM.     

CEO optimism,CEO selection,compensation, and corporate investment decision: The case of CEOs who were rehired as CEOs by another firms after turnover

What happens to CEOs after they are let go by their firm? This study is designed to investigate CEOs who are rehired as CEOs by another firms after turnover. CEOs defined as “moderately optimistic” and those who left voluntarily from their departing firms, are younger, have better prior performance, and work in larger firms are found to have a greater likelihood of being rehired as a CEO by another employer. Moreover, new-hire firms with higher growth opportunity and higher R&D expenditures are found to be significantly more willing to hire overconfident CEOs. Furthermore, more-optimistic CEOs are found to receive higher total compensation from their new-hire firms than CEOs who are less optimistic. Finally, overconfident CEOs working in firms with high growth opportunity and higher R&D show a significantly greater tendency toward increasing firm investment.     

企业投资效率演进与中国总产出波动

本文将企业投资效率的变动过程引入包含名义和实际刚性等多种结构特征的新凯恩斯主义宏观模型,并用贝叶斯极大似然方法估计了模型的结构参数。边际数据密度比较结果显示,刚性价格-工资模型能够较好的解释实际数据。同时,我们还就企业投资效率冲击对实际总产出波动的解释力和历史贡献进行了评估,波动性分解的结果说明投资效率冲击对产出波动具有30%以上的解释力,是所有冲击中贡献最大的。历史分解和反事实模拟的结果显示投资效率是动态演化的,在本届政府的两个任期内,投资效率呈现总体改善趋势,相对于十五计划时期,十一五计划时期的投资效率更稳定、效率水平也更高。投资效率改善对2006年后产出增长有显著拉动作用,需要强调的是,如果没有投资效率改善所形成的产出拉动,2008年金融危机所导致的经济衰退要比实际情形严重很多倍。     

一种改进的不完全指数复制方法

本文在考虑交易成本和投资组合动态调整的基础上,建立混合整数线性规划模型,引入内核搜索分析框架进行近似求解,并利用沪深300进行实证研究。研究发现,一是相比于基本内核搜索法,增强型内核搜索法仅在基准指数成分股数量很大时才会较大幅度提高求解质量;二是考虑投资组合动态调整的模型不仅更稳健,而且跟踪的继承性和保持性更好,尤其适用于单边市场;三是过度刻画现实交易特征一定程度上会降低不完全指数复制模型的复制和预测效果。     

瞪羚企业认定是否提高了企业创新质量

瞪羚企业认定是我国创新驱动发展战略的重要措施,旨在培育高科技、高成长性企业,促进科技进步和经济高质量发展。为研究瞪羚企业认定能否切实提升企业创新质量,利用2005-2018年新三板企业数据和PSM-DID方法研究瞪羚企业认定对企业创新质量的影响及作用机制。结果发现：①瞪羚企业认定对企业创新质量有正向促进效应,且这种效应在地区和企业层面均存在异质性;②人力投入是瞪羚企业认定发挥作用的重要渠道;③制度因素对瞪羚企业认定影响的调节效应有限,意味着我国市场化改革和知识产权保护工作仍需进一步完善。最后,为政府有效开展瞪羚企业认定工作、促进企业提高创新质量提出政策建议。     

二代继任方式、家族权威与家族企业创新投入

代际传承背景下家族企业创新投入是家族企业治理研究领域的重要问题。分析和检验了差异化二代继任方式如何影响家族企业创新投资水平,以及二者关系是否会依赖于家族权威差异而发生变化。研究结果发现：与渐进型二代继任相比,激进型二代继任会削减家族企业创新投入;二代继任方式与家族企业创新投入关系受到家族权威的影响。在家族成员权威和非家族创业元老权威较重的企业,激进型继任者对家族企业创新投入的削弱效应更显著。进一步研究发现,二代继任3年后,激进型继任者对家族企业创新投入的负面影响显著下降,且其削弱效应在规模较大企业以及创立时间较长的企业中更显著。