The optimal carbon tax mechanism for managing carbon emissions

Along Pigouvian lines, the carbon tax not only exceeds the carbon emission damage imposed on society, but ignores the potential cost from deliberate carbon abatement, which in turn challenges the stability and optimality of the Pigouvian solution. For correcting these distortions, this paper amends the standard Pigouvian version by using piecewise tax functions to approximate the social damage curve of carbon emissions. An optimal carbon tax mechanism is designed, where the tax is endogenously determined from social welfare maximization. With the help of a modification instrument, the carbon tax corrects emitters’ non-optimal individual decision and the social optimum is implemented efficiently. How to put the carbon tax into practice is examined under both the deterministic and stochastic modeling settings. In both cases, we demonstrate the structure and effectiveness of the carbon tax in detail. Moreover, a flexible adjustment tax scheme is proposed, which may produce the double-dividend effect that reduces carbon emissions and relieves financial burden of carbon abatement simultaneously. These may improve the application of market-based carbon-reducing tools in public management and pollution regulation.     

碳减排约束下中国工业企业信用评级

在碳达峰、碳中和目标愿景下,工业企业碳减排约束逐步趋强,有必要将碳要素相关风险纳入信用评级,合理区分不同企业信用风险水平。本文基于金融稳定视角提出一套碳减排约束下工业企业信用评级方法,即在评估企业碳减排绩效的同时,兼顾企业资金偿付能力,实现生态和经济效益平衡。研究表明:一是评级过程不仅关注企业自身信用风险水平的纵向比较,同时考虑企业间、企业与银行系统间信用风险传染效应以防控系统性金融风险;二是基于系统重要性工业企业的信用等级将全体工业企业划分至四类等级区间,进而将九分类等级划分问题转化为二分类问题,规避等级划分的“组合爆炸”困扰;三是基于“小范围遍历+序列前向选择算法”搜索不同等级间最优临界样本,既避免评级虚高给商业银行带来信贷损失,也不会因评级过低阻碍企业绿色低碳转型。 本文可为商业银行有效预警低碳转型风险、制定绿色信贷决策提供一定参考。     

城市创新能否助力低碳经济发展——创新型城市试点政策对碳强度的影响评估及机制分析

创新是城市发展的力量之源，低碳是城市发展的必由之路。将创新型城市试点作为一项准自然实验，利用2005—2018年全国275个城市面板数据，采用多期双重差分方法，评估创新型城市试点对降低碳强度的政策效应及作用机制。研究发现：第一，创新型城市试点政策能够在降低碳强度的基础上推动低碳经济发展，各类试点政策的推动效果依次为碳排放权交易政策>创新型城市政策>智慧城市政策>低碳城市政策>环境保护重点监控政策；第二，创新型城市试点政策可以通过规模经济效应、技术进步效应与结构转型效应3条路径助力低碳经济发展；第三，城市特质会影响创新型城市试点政策效应发挥，创新型城市试点政策对碳强度的抑制效果呈现由东到西递增的地理空间差序格局、由高到低递减的城市等级差序格局，在人口规模与抑制效果之间呈现倒U型作用，并且资源型城市的抑制效果显著大于非资源型城市。     

Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading,financial uncertainties,and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis

This paper investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading (CET), financial uncertainties, and Chinese stocks in different industries over the period from 19th December 2013 to 21st March 2022. We utilized a novel quantile framework including rolling window quantile regression method, quantile-on-quantile method, and causality-in-quantiles method to implement this research more comprehensively and accurately. Our contributions and findings, empirical in nature, are as follows: (i) In the early establishing stage of the carbon market, with a bullish market situation, carbon emission trading has a negative impact on most industry stocks. In the developing and improving stage of the carbon market, different industries have different impact situations. (ii) We find that the effects of financial uncertainty on stocks are stronger than CET on stocks. We also find that the dependence structures between CET, financial uncertainty, and industry stocks are asymmetric in most industries, and there are many mutation structures with significant risks in extreme situations. (iii) Carbon emissions trading, crude oil volatility, and US stock volatility all have strong causal relationships with Chinese industry stocks. (iv) We also provide policy suggestions to relevant countries to balance carbon market and stock markets and avoid risks from financial uncertainty in different industries.     

Why is Japan’s carbon emissions from road transportation declining?

Average fuel efficiency of vehicles improved substantially over the last three decades in Japan. Yet, the carbon emissions from on-road passenger vehicles continued to increase until 2000, and then turned to a steadily declining trend. We empirically investigate this disparity. To that end, we apply an analogue of the Copeland-Taylor decomposition, combined with an empirically estimated behavioral model of car ownership and utilization choice, to economically decompose vehicle carbon emissions into the scale, composition, and technique effects over our study period, 1990–2015. We find that exogenous demographic changes such as population size, driver’s license holdings, or labor migration across regions can only explain this disparity partially. After accounting for endogenous changes in household’s geographically-explicit transport demand by the estimated behavioral model, the predicted emissions match the time path of the observed emissions surprisingly well. Of all the factors in the behavioral model, the fuel cost per unit of driving accounts for the largest share of the total variation in the observed emissions. Our result indicates that 60% of the technique effect is offset by the perverse effect of induced transport demand due to the lower fuel cost. Importantly, the induced demand comes from both the intensive margin (driving) and the extensive margin (car ownership).     

铁碳合金相图的计算机处理技术

介绍了“铁碳合金相图ＣＡＩ课件”中的图形处理技术，阐述了拟合曲线的方法、曲线的绘制及其他相关处理技术。