2010年北京三次产业发展预测与研究

本文通过对北京三次产业发展的现状分析,研究了三次产业的生产结构、分配结构、经济效 益和经济结构的演变过程,指出目前存在的主要问题并结合模型对2010年北京的三次产业做了预测展望。     

能效改善与能源节约：助力还是阻力

研究目标：测算中国分行业的能源回弹效应与综合能耗系数。研究方法：通过编制含能源实物流量的价值型能源投入产出可比价序列表,测算出能源回弹效应与综合能耗系数,结合行业综合能耗情况分析了能源回弹效应的行业异质性。研究发现：各行业在能耗方面表现迥异,能源回弹效应也存在典型的行业异质性;中国整体经济能源回弹程度并不高,能效改善可以有效节约能源,但整体经济低能源回弹的表象也掩盖了部分行业能源效率无改善和高能耗行业高能源回弹的事实。研究创新：从系统与结构的视角审视了行业的综合能耗情况,并给出了一种基于能源投入产出表的能源回弹效应计算方法。研究价值：有助于提出整体经济结构优化与节能减排的行业政策。     

适应能源新形势促进节能认证工作新发展

能源问题是全球共同关注的一个战略性问题。中国是能源消费大国,能源需求大,而国内能源贮备不足,节能任务十分迫切。为适应新形势下的节能需要,文章建议应采取节能认证的手段,大力促进节能工作的发展。     

人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各产业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的分析

研究构建了一个可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)以量化估算人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各部门的影响。根据最新的中国2005年投入产出表编制了中国2005年社会核算矩阵作为CGE模型的基础数据集。研究表明:除服务业、建筑业外,人民币实际汇率升值使大部分产业产出下降,升值的财富效应导致国内购买力增强,服务业、建筑业产出随之增加;升值使农业部门的农业劳动力需求减少,服务业、建筑业的劳动力需求增加,大部分非农行业的劳动力需求也都趋于减少。     

试论里海地区的地缘政治意义

“地缘政治”是指地理上的缘由给国家带来了政治上的影响。里海的能源吸引着全世界的目光,相关大国如美国、俄罗斯、环里海国家以及印度和日本都纷纷加入了里海的能源竞争中,里海地区的地缘政治意义愈发突出。     

Are the interdependence characteristics of the US and Canadian energy equity sectors nonlinear and asymmetric?

Nonlinear, symmetric, and asymmetric dependence characteristics in energy equity sectors matter to portfolio investors and risk managers because of the risks and diversification opportunities they entail. Specifically, nonlinear dependence dynamics between assets are harder to predict, monitor, and manage, and can make investment positions go wrong unexpectedly. In this paper, we investigate whether the dependence dynamics of US and Canadian large-capitalized energy equity portfolios are nonlinear, symmetric, or asymmetric. We draw our results by implementing a robust copula approach based on time-varying parameter copulas and vine copula methods. Both time varying parameter and vine-copula methods indicate that the Canadian energy sector portfolio is driven by nonlinear negative tail asymmetric dependence during the global financial crisis and when the full sample period is employed. On the other hand, it displays nonlinear symmetric dependence during the oil price crisis, implying the need for close monitoring and rebalancing and a more continuous assessment of long investment positions. The US energy sector portfolio is driven by positive tail asymmetric dependence, and by symmetric dependence dynamics during crisis and non-crisis periods.     

The causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth: evidence from the G7 countries

This article re-examines the nature of the causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in G7 countries over the period from 1965 to 2011. We employ the Granger causality procedure proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. Our overall empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis for the panel while the individual country results confirm the same result with the exception of the case of UK, where the conservation hypothesis is confirmed, showing that GDP causes natural gas consumption in the country. These results make policies that promote the consumption of natural gas risk-free with regard to their effects to the economic growth and development levels.     

新常态下中国节能服务产业发展新方向:与PPP模式的集成研究

为了实现新常态下节能服务产业转型,探索中国节能服务产业发展新方向,以集成论为基础理论框架,首先通过分析节能服务产业与PPP模式集成所需要的集成单元、集成条件和集成界面,证明了二者集成的可行性,解决了能否集成的问题;其次,在集成单元和集成界面确定的基础上,设计出节能服务产业与PPP模式之间的集成模式,解决了怎样集成的问题;最后,识别出影响节能服务产业与PPP模式所构成的集成体发展的集成环境,解决了哪些因素会影响集成体发展的问题。     

The effectiveness of home energy audits: A case study of Jackson,Wyoming

This study examines the factors that influence households to adopt modifications recommended by home energy audits and whether these audits lead to significant reductions in electricity use. Household decisions after the audits are recorded along with the corresponding recommended modifications and the offers for co-funding. A discrete choice model of the household decision after the audit is estimated. The results indicate that the potential improvement in heating efficiency from the proposed modifications increase the probability of implementing conservation measures. Co-funding offers also significantly raise the odds of accepting the modifications but are relatively less important than anticipated efficiency improvements. Several approaches are used to determine whether and how much energy is saved after the audits. Electricity demand models are estimated using data two years before and after each household audit. For households who decide to modify their houses after the audit, monthly average electricity use per square foot decreases 7%. While there is an estimated 2% reduction in electricity use attributed to the audit by households who decided not to adopt the proposed modifications, this reduction is not statistically significant, casting doubt on the presence of modifications in behavior from the audit information itself. For all households audited, the results from the electricity demand models suggest that the LVE home energy audit program reduced household electricity use 4.7%. In contrast, a differences-in-differences approach using synthetic control groups based upon a smaller but still sizeable sample of 2000 observations finds that home energy audits reduce household electricity use by more than 10%. Overall, these findings suggest that home audits result in modest but significant reductions in energy use and that co-funding encourages investments that otherwise may not be privately optimal.     

能源新论——兼论树立科学的能源观

能源在人类社会中是一个历史范畴,不同文明时期的主导能源之间有着深刻的历史联系。工业社会的主导能源本质上是化学能源,这决定了它的局限性。面对工业能源危机,人类必须开拓出比化学能源更深层次的新能源,这就是物理能源。物理能源的开发利用及其向主导能源的转化,是今日经济社会发展的必然趋势。