Utility of gambling I: entropy modified linear weighted utility

Behavioral axioms about preference orderings among gambles and their joint receipt lead to numerical representations consisting of a subjective utility term plus a term depending upon the events and the subjective weights. The results here are for uncertain alternatives, in much the same sense as Savage’s usage. Several open problems are described. Results for the risky case are in a second article.      

Inter-Firm and Intra-Firm Efficiency Measures

Intra-firm efficiencyinvolves computing a particular firm's efficiency degree overtime relative to the firm-specific production frontier. Inter-firmefficiency reveals a particular firm's performance over timerelative to the ``best practice frontier' among the set of comparablefirms. These efficiency measures are related by an inter-firmcatch-up component reflecting differences in technology acrossfirms. Those measures are estimated for Dutch pot-plant firmsusing the Generalized Maximum Entropy formalism. The empiricalresults suggest the inter-firm catch-up component is the majordeterminant of inter-firm efficiency.     

Does trend inflation make a difference?

Although the average inflation rate of developed countries in the postwar period has been greater than zero, much of the extensive literature on monetary policy has employed models that assume zero steady-state inflation. In comparing four estimated medium–scale NK DSGE models with real and nominal frictions, we seek to shed light on the quantitative implications of omitting trend inflation, that is, positive steady–state inflation. We compare certain population characteristics and the IRFs for the four models by applying two loss functions based on a point distance criterion and on a distribution distance criterion, respectively. Finally, we compare the RMSE forecasts and we consider also an indirect inference test. We repeat the analysis for three sub-periods: the Great Inflation, the Great Moderation and the union of the two periods. We do not find strong evidence that a model with trend inflation should always be preferred. During periods of high inflation or when a backward-looking component, indexed to past inflation, is not incorporated in the model, using a model that employs trend inflation can improve the analysis. Nevertheless, where there is uncertainty concerning the change of an inflation regime, such as the recent drop, we suggest adopting a traditional approach that does not use trend inflation.     

Filling in the blanks: network structure and interbank contagion

The network pattern of financial linkages is important in many areas of banking and finance. Yet, bilateral linkages are often unobserved, and maximum entropy serves as the leading method for estimating counterparty exposures. This paper proposes an efficient alternative that combines information-theoretic arguments with economic incentives to produce more realistic interbank networks that preserve important characteristics of the original interbank market. The method loads the most probable links with the largest exposures consistent with the total lending and borrowing of each bank, yielding networks with minimum density. When used in a stress-testing context, the minimum-density solution overestimates contagion, whereas maximum entropy underestimates it. Using the two benchmarks side-by-side defines a useful range that bounds the cost of contagion in the true interbank network when counterparty exposures are unknown.     

城镇化与金融支持的协调度分析——以新疆生产建设兵团为例

建立城镇化与金融支持度评价指标体系,运用熵权法对城镇化与金融支持度指标体系进行综合评价,并基于综合得分进行城镇化与金融支持协调度分析。结果表明：1990-2010年间兵团城镇化综合得分呈明显上升趋势,金融支持综合得分增速较为平稳,其中金融支持结构、人口城镇化年环比为负增长;兵团城镇化与金融支持存在耦合关系,彼此作用、相互促进,同时二者的协调性不存在显著的时间差异。     

长江经济带科学竞争力评价及区域异质性分析

科学竞争力是推动国家科技自立自强,实现创新发展的源能力。提升科学竞争力对实现长江经济带高质量发展具有关键意义,也有助于促进全国区域发展战略实现。从科学资源存量、科学资源投入、科学成果产出3个维度构建科学竞争力评价体系,利用加权熵权法计算出长江经济带11个省市在全国的科学竞争力排名,探究2009-2018年科学竞争力变化趋势,并通过计算赫芬达尔指数对区域异质性进行分析。研究发现：从发展趋势看,2009-2018年该区域科学竞争力整体呈上升趋势,增长了29.97%;从区域差异看,科学竞争力呈现自下游向上游的显著梯级递减趋势,上下游地区差异巨大;从科学竞争力核心指标看,长江经济带在全国占有明显优势,但存在科学资源存量与投入占优、科技成果产出水平相对较低的问题。据此,提出长江经济带应精准布局高质量创新载体、建设科学家群落、培育科学联合体、搭建省际科学协同联盟等建议。     

知识整合视角下企业技术创新能力评价

随着科技的发展,知识作为一种关键资源在企业技术创新过程中发挥着越来越重要的作用。系统分析企业技术创新能力影响因素,从创新投入、主体协同、创新产出、创新环境4个方面构建基于知识整合的企业技术创新能力评价指标体系,并综合运用熵值法和TOPSIS法构建企业技术创新能力评价模型,进而选取智能装备制造行业的5家企业进行实证研究,提出相关对策建议。     

序数空间中企业战略风险与企业绩效关系研究——基于中国纺织业面板数据分析

依据序数空间中的熵理论,将战略风险转化为企业在战略参考系统内收益排名的下降带来的负面不确定信息,构建序数战略风险度量模型度量企业战略风险,克服了传统的均值方差等度量方法的局限性。运用2001～2009的中国纺织业相关数据,构建面板数据随机效应模型对企业战略风险与绩效关系进行分析,结果表明战略风险和企业的净资产收益率及总资产周转率呈负相关关系,企业非流动资产周转率和股息支付率对企业战略风险正向影响较小。     

基于层次熵分析法的云台山风景区旅游资源评价

旅游资源评价是一个综合的、多准则的、多因素的复杂问题,它对于地区旅游资源的开发和合理利用具有重要作用。本文利用层次分析法和熵技术相结合,构建出包含资源价值、景区环境和旅游条件等3个准则层因子和13个子准则层因子的云台山风景区旅游资源评价模型。通过科学系统的评价,得到了相对准确的评价结果,观赏性、休闲性、环境质量等因素在旅游资源开发中扮演着越来越重要的角色。     

“风险熵”量度税务筹划风险研究

税务筹划的实施由于诸多不确定因素的存在而面临着错综复杂的风险是一个不争的事实。本文根据风险是事件本身的不确定性这一特征,提出了一个称为“风险熵”的新概念。在此基础上,应用概率统计理论推导“风险熵”的数学表达式以作为税务筹划方案风险程度的评价指标。