融资渠道与中国区域技术创新

运用2011-2016年中国内地31个省份面板数据,通过固定效应模型检验不同融资渠道对全国以及东中西部地区技术创新的影响。结果表明：①债权融资在整体上对技术创新影响不显著,分地区看,其在东部地区发挥了促进作用,而在中西部地区则起到抑制作用;②从整体及中西部地区看,股权融资对技术创新的影响不显著,且抑制了东部地区技术创新;③对股市板块进行细分后,整体上股权融资中只有创业板股权融资显著促进了技术创新水平提升,主板和中小板的作用均不显著。     

信息披露、透明度与资本成本

信息披露对公司权益资本成本影响的研究对上市公司与监管机构都有着非常深刻的意义 ,然而披露水平与权益资本成本之间的联系往往并不明确 ,特别是在发展中国家。本文运用 2 0 0 2年前在上海证券交易所上市的 51 6家公司数据 ,检验了上市公司权益资本成本与其自愿披露水平的关系。在控制了公司规模与财务风险变量之后 ,本文结论显示 :上市公司信息披露水平的提高有助于降低公司的权益资本成本     

A Model Forecasting Risk for Emerging Market Currencies

In this paper, we propose a risk forecasting model for emerging market currencies. Our model is based on the Markov regime switch which is constructed by exploiting daily equity market information, and we show that our model outperforms the existing model using macroeconomic information. We evaluate it by the performance measures, the goodness-of-fit and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.     

Can stochastic discount factor models explain the cross-section of equity returns?

We propose a multivariate test of the capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) of the cross-sectional variation in equity returns in which we compare cross-sectional variation in equity returns to the cross-sectional variation in their conditional covariance with stochastic discount factors. We use a multivariate generalized heteroskedasticity in mean model to estimate 25 portfolios that are formed on size and the book-to-market ratio. Each portfolio is allowed to have its own no-arbitrage condition. We find that although the conditional covariances of returns with consumption exhibit negative variation across size, they do not vary across the book-to-market ratio. Thus, C-CAPM can capture the size effect, but not the value effect. The fit is, however, improved by allowing the coefficients on the consumption covariances to be different. The value effect appears to be associated with the book-to-market ratio as well as size. On its own the book-to-market ratio does not generate additional information about average returns to C-CAPM. A possible explanation for these findings is that both small and low book-to-market ratio firms are expected to have higher rates of growth.     

Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging

We propose using the statistical method of Bagging to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample for multivariate regression models. Bagging allows for the flexible and efficient extraction of valuable informational content from a large set of predictors, leading to statistically and economically significant gains relative to not only the historical mean, but also other soft-threshold methods such as forecast combinations and shrinkage estimators in our empirical results. Furthermore, we find that the source of economic gains for Bagging primarily comes from the fact that it encourages the investor to actively manage portfolio by flexibly utilizing short selling or leveraging to better time the market following correctly prognosticated trends. However, other strategies such as forecast combinations keep the equity shares nearly fixed regardless of the predicted market prospect.     

Measuring resource inequalities: The concepts and methodology for an area-based Gini coefficient

Although inequalities in income and expenditure are relatively well researched, comparatively little attention has been paid, to date, to inequalities in resource use. This is clearly a shortcoming when it comes to developing informed policies for sustainable consumption and social justice. This paper describes an indicator of inequality in resource use called the AR-Gini. The AR-Gini is an area-based measure of resource inequality that estimates inequalities between neighbourhoods with regard to the consumption of specific consumer goods. It is also capable of estimating inequalities in the emissions resulting from resource use, such as carbon dioxide emissions from energy use, and solid waste arisings from material resource use. The indicator is designed to be used as a basis for broadening the discussion concerning ‘food deserts’ to inequalities in other types of resource use. By estimating the AR-Gini for a wide range of goods and services we aim to enhance our understanding of resource inequalities and their drivers, identify which resources have highest inequalities, and to explore trends in inequalities. The paper describes the concepts underlying the construction of the AR-Gini and its methodology. Its use is illustrated by pilot applications (specifically, men's and boys' clothing, carpets, refrigerators/freezers and clothes washer/driers). The results illustrate that different levels of inequality are associated with different commodities. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some possible policy implications of the AR-Gini.     

基于主成分分析和BP神经网络算法的股权众筹风险评价研究

近年来,随着股权众筹的迅速发展,其在实际运作中风险评估和防范问题引起了人们的关注.基于此,本文首先利用主成分分析的方法构建了股权众筹风险评估指标体系,其次,利用BP神经网络以众投邦平台股权众筹项目为例进行了实证研究.结果显示:众筹风险评估指标体系由审核估值风险、发起人能力风险、项目本身风险、法律风险、经营风险、监管风险及流动性风险等七个指标构成;BP神经网络的方法在股权众筹风险评估方面是可行且有效的.研究结论可为我国股权众筹风险评估和防控及金融风险防控具有重要的理论及现实意义.     

上市公司控制权争夺的动机及其特征

本文结合国内外研究成果以及我国当前的市场环境,对可能成为控制权争夺目标的公司会具备什么样的财务特征、股权结构以及公司治理进行了分析,以寻找上市公司控制权争夺的真正动机和目的.我们研究发现:上市公司经营业绩越差,债务比率越高,当年具有增发或配股资格,产权的可转让性越低,产权性质为国有企业和终极控制人为国有企业或政府机构时,其控制权被争夺的可能性也越高.     

资本结构与代理成本关系研究评述

资本结构与代理成本之间的关系始终是研究者关注的焦点。本文认为,资本结构中权益资本和债务资本会引发不同的代理成本,其产生的根源在于管理者与股东以及债权人与权益投资者之间存在不同的利益格局。在第一类和第二类代理冲突中,债务均具有重要的地位,但债务在第二类代理冲突中的作用与第一类冲突中显著不同。当企业股权集中时,大股东掌握着企业的实际控制权,企业的主要代理问题成为控股大股东与中、小股东之间的代理问题,这会导致其资本结构的代理成本与第一类和第二类代理成本显著不同。     

Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models

In this article, we study the time-varying market neutrality of equity market neutral hedge funds. We use data from the Hedge Fund Research? Equity Market Neutral Index (HFRX EH), which represents the performance of a portfolio of individual equity market neutral hedge funds. For each day, we measure different levels of association of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&;P 500) index and the HFRX EH. We use non-linear dynamic conditional score models of location, scale and copula that, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been applied in the body of literature on hedge funds. We study whether the neutrality of the HFRX EH that is evidenced in the body of literature for the period of April 1993–April 2003 also holds for the following decade, for the period of May 2003–December 2016. We estimate different average levels of association for the pre-, during- and post-periods of the US financial crisis of 2008. We find that the association of the S&;P 500 and the HFRX EH, on average, is significantly positive for the pre- and post-periods of the financial crisis, and it is significantly negative for the period during the financial crisis.