Ireland’s 2010 EU/IMF intervention: Costs and benefits

This paper examines the costs and benefits of the EU/IMF rescue package for Ireland, on November 29, 2010. We analyze the costs of the intervention and the subsequent increase in value of debt and/or equity issued by Irish banks, the Irish government, and European banks with substantial holdings of Irish debt. The total initial value increase around the announcement amounts to €5.59bln at a realized taxpayers’ cost of €4.23bln. While the value increase depends on somewhat generous assumptions, it further increases by €2.8bln up to Ireland’s exit in December 2013. About €3.1bln of the value created indirectly supports the European banking sector, indicating that substantial benefits arise from systemic risk containment.     

Japanese stock market reaction to announcements of news affecting auditors’ reputation: The case of the Olympus fraud

The revelation of accounting fraud by the Olympus Corporation gave rise to shareholder allegations of audit failure against Olympus’ auditors—Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC and KPMG AZSA LLC—in 2011. In this study, we investigate whether the auditors’ affiliation with Olympus contributes to divergent perceptions of audit quality in the event of news announcements affecting the reputation of Olympus’ auditors. First, we use a nonparametric generalized rank event study methodology on 918 sample firms from the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) to observe Japanese investors’ perceptions of auditor reputation as proxied by abnormal returns. Second, we perform a multivariate linear regression on firms’ abnormal returns after controlling for firm-specific variables. We find that Japanese investors do not respond to negative or neutral reputational information arising from news announcements concerning Olympus’ auditors for firms affiliated and not affiliated with those auditors. In the absence of legal penalties imposed on Olympus’ auditors, we argue that Japanese investors consider the Olympus fraud case as an expected occurrence of audit failure due to a lack of evidence suggesting systematic audit failure on the part of Olympus’ auditors and an expectation of lower audit quality in the Japanese capital market. As a result, Japanese investors do not consider news announcements affecting the Olympus auditors’ reputation as sufficient evidence to change their prior expectation regarding the reputations of the audit firms affiliated with the Olympus fraud case.     

The impact of sovereign credit ratings on Eurobond yields: Evidence from Africa

The importance of sovereign credit ratings and Eurobonds issued by governments have come to the fore in Africa in the last decade. We examine whether changes in sovereign credit ratings impact Eurobond yields in 8 countries over the period of 2014–2019. Our approach reviews rating changes impact on Eurobond yields utilising the event study methodology. Our findings reflect that, on average, close to a third of rating actions directly impact bond yields in African countries. The statistically significant events include the downgrades of South Africa and Namibia to non-investment grade in 2017 reflecting critical transitions and bond investors’ reactions. Overall, the low percentage of a third, relative to previous international studies, suggests that largely rating changes are anticipated, do not have much new information and perhaps the perceived power of credit rating agencies may be overstated. In our view, the results reflect that pre-announcements of rating review dates since 2014 makes rating actions predictable and less impactful to bond yields. In addition, they reflect that bond investors adjust in real time as new information come in, resulting in less reliance on the opinions of CRAs and using their own assessments.     

What is science’s crisis really about?

Present day reasoning about difficulties in science reproducibility, science governance, and the use of science for policy could benefit from a philosophical and historical perspective. This would show that the present crisis was anticipated by some scholars of these disciplines, and that diagnoses were offered which are not yet mainstream among crisis-aware disciplines, from statistics to medicine, from bibliometrics to biology. Diagnoses in turn open the path to possible solutions. This discussion is urgent given the impact of the crises on public trust in institutions. We ask whether the present crisis may be seminal in terms of drawing attention to alternative visions for the role of Science in society, and its relevant institutional arrangements. We finish by offering a number of suggestions in this direction.     

Optimal portfolio composition and the CAPM

It is commonly assumed that the CAPM implies that all investors hold a balanced portfolio, “the market portfolio,” and investors just determine the proportion of their wealth held in the market portfolio and the risk-free asset. That this is patently at odds with observed investor behavior is sometimes used to justify rejecting the CAPM. However, by assuming that substitute securities exist, in this paper we still obtain the CAPM, although investors neither hold all of the assets in the market nor a balanced shareholding in the assets they do hold.     

“达芬奇密码”新解——新形势下企业舆论危机管理探析

当前,以互联网为代表的新媒体迅猛发展,企业舆论环境不确定性增强,舆论危机呈高发态势.2011年,央视报道达芬奇家居股份有限公司造假的“达芬奇事件”,成为当年企业舆论危机标志性事件.文章以该事件为样本,剖析新形势下企业舆论危机管理机理、参与各方的博弈行为,提出新形势下企业应对舆论危机的基本方式方法.     

事件结构隐喻研究综述

事件结构概念是哲学中的核心概念.事件结构概念的理解是通过隐喻的方式实现的.本文在Lakoff & Johnson的《当代隐喻理论》和《体验哲学》背景下,分别对ESM理论的提出及其在隐喻体系中的地位、哲学基础等方面加以概述.在参阅文献的基础上,对当前国内外ESM研究现状进行综述.     

Do Trademark Infringement Lawsuits Affect Brand Value: A Stock Market Perspective

Many firms find that they can benefit from copying orotherwise misusing the trademarks of their competitors. Firmsthat have maintained a positive brand image are likely to fightany dilution or eventual loss of their trademark by using lawsuitsagainst offending firms. These lawsuits help to staunch any lossesto the brand and leave the potential for the benefits from thetrademark to flow back to the firm. These benefits will be temperedby legal costs, potential infringement by other firms in futureand the need to file lawsuits in response. In contrast, firmsthat have infringed on a trademark are likely to lose if theowner of the trademark challenges them in court. This study relatesthe stock returns of firms to the filing of lawsuits to defendtrademarks. We study the impact of both the filing of the lawsuitand the eventual verdict of the court on the stock market valueof defendant and plaintiff firms. The protection of a trademarkby a plaintiff using a lawsuit resulted in a negative returnto the shareholders of the defendant firm that infringed on thetrademark. The returns to the plaintiff firms were mixed andof marginal magnitude due to offsetting factors although largefirms experienced positive returns.     

“Bring the numbers and stories together”: Valuing events

This article introduces a Valuation Studies approach, in which valuation is seen as a social practice, to studying the outcomes of events. Drawing on material gathered around the Arctic Winter Games organized in Nuuk, Greenland in 2016, we exemplify how researchers working together across disciplinary and methodological boundaries can engage together with events stakeholders in making event values knowable beyond the confines of traditional evaluation. Analytically, we use Callons’ concepts on framing and overflows to exemplify alternative outcomes of events. We argue that a valuation approach offers an iterative understanding of event outcomes which encourages economics and constructivist research to collaborate on exploring event worth and making event overflows knowable and valuable.     

Intensity-based framework and penalty formulation of optimal stopping problems

Financial derivatives commonly contain premature termination clauses, which are embedded rights held by the holder or writer. Well known examples of these stopping rights include the early exercise right in American options, the callable right in callable securities and the prepayment right in mortgage loans. In this paper, we show how to model the mortgagor's prepayment in mortgage loans and the issuer's call in the American warrant as an event risk using the intensity based approach, where the propensity of prepayment or calling is modeled by the intensity of a Poisson process. We illustrate that the corresponding pricing formulation resembles the penalty approximation approach commonly used in the solution of the linear complementarity formulation of an optimal stopping problem. We obtain several theoretical results on the prepayment strategies of mortgage loans and calling policies of American warrants. We also propose robust second order accurate numerical schemes for solving the penalty formulation of an optimal stopping problem.