Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution — an evolutionary approach

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.     

我国能源强度的演变机理及影响因素分析

本文从能源强度演变的视角对我国能源强度差异性进行理论分析,并对影响我国能源强度差异的主要因素进行了分析,最后根据理论分析结果提出关于我国能耗目标实现和节能减排的针对性政策建议。     

新贸易保护主义的特征演变及其理论依据

新贸易保护主义是特指二战以来西方发达国家的各种贸易保护理论及其政策措施。20世纪90年代以来,新贸易保护主义原有的特征产生了一些变化,表现为更多地寻求多边贸易体系下的合法性保护;对进口保护的重新重视;从非关税措施的明显性保护转向隐蔽性保护;从单纯贸易政策转向经济、竞争政策,这些演变背后存在众多的理论支持,研究这些演变及其理论依据具有重要的理论与现实意义。     

企业主流与新流创新演进机理研究

激烈的市场竞争使人们意识到，企业既需要维持创新发展优势而抢占主流市场，又需要创造新的企业发展优势而赢取未来主流市场。着眼于这一关键任务，实现主流与新流创新演进成为企业持续发展的重点。因此，基于生物进化理论、企业进化理论和企业DNA理论，提出主流与新流创新演进经过了生成、变异、选择、协同阶段。深入研究主流与新流创新的生成、变异、选择、协同机理，并与企业创新发展实践相结合，为企业未来主流创新提供具体路径指导。     

An evolutionary complex systems perspective on urban health

Deliberations about how to govern complex problems of urban health and wellbeing sustainably have often been implicitly biased by ideas such as being ‘human-scale’ or ‘people-centered.’ With increasing urban populations and increasing urban system interconnectivity, many cities have transformed into city regions or clusters, and the external effects of urban growth are carried mainly by the marginalized and the environment putting urban health increasingly at risk. Here we address the question of why human societies have not been better at collectively adapting to the challenges of urbanization and global environmental change? We build a theoretical framework of multi-level selection, complex systems evolution, and governance, following which we then present ‘human-scale’ and ‘people-centered’ ideas of urban development as expressions of two types of socio-political organization with different degrees of self-organization. We found several reasons for which the maladies of current urban development emerged and the seeming inability to resolve them. First, urban systems became increasingly interconnected and evolved into ultrasocial superorganisms, displaying preference to sustain themselves as a whole rather than their subordinates. Second, the difference in scaling effects between the biological and the social network contributed to the mismatch between rapid urban growth and slow adaptation. Furthermore, institutions of decreased variety reinforce themselves and become dominant, creating a positive feedback mechanism and promoting invasive and exploitative exponential growth, but they also reduce the creativity and resilience of urban systems. We also found that both the “human-scale” and the “people-centered” approaches acknowledge the exponential growth and decreasing variety in urban systems, and advocate for correcting the mismatches. To incorporate people's needs and values for long-term, truly sustainable urban health governance, we recommend combining the self-organizing, evolutionary feature of “human-scale” and the coordinative, political feature of “people-centeredness.”     

创新网络领域知识主题研究述评

在知识经济时代，创新网络在企业创新中扮演着重要角色，而研究网络中知识要素的产生、传播、吸收等问题对了解企业网络化创新具有重要意义。基于国内外核心文献数据库，收集创新网络领域知识要素相关文献，并结合文献计量分析方法，对该领域近30年有关知识主题研究的演化规律、整体趋势等进行梳理。结果表明，国内外研究年度发文量均呈现3个阶段变化趋势，且分别拥有各自重要载文期刊，国内研究已形成核心团队，而国外并未形成；国内外研究既有相同之处，也存在差异性，且均形成较为清晰的研究框架；在演化规律上，国内横向拓展和纵向深化研究特征显著，而国外更加注重纵向深入探索分析，研究内容也更加分散；在未来前沿热点分析上，中外学者关注内容既有相同点，也有不同点，知识协同、知识惯例、企业数字化转型对知识影响的研究是未来关注重点。     

The Business Values Scorecard within BAE Systems: The evolution of a performance measurement system

This paper explores the evolution of a performance measurement system in BAE Systems, a UK aerospace company. In 1994, the company embarked on a culture change project, which focused the organisation on five key values: performance, people, customers, partnerships, and innovation and technology. Tracing the mechanisms used to implement these values through the culture change project, the study describes the introduction of the “Business Values Scorecard” (BVS), which provided a way of translating the five key values into a coherent set of performance measures. The paper contrasts the BVS in BAE Systems with the balanced scorecard (BSC) of Kaplan and Norton, emphasising the importance of “coherence”, rather than cause-and-effect relationships. Furthermore, the BVS was not simply designed and then implemented; instead it evolved over an extended period of time. Finally, while it reflected the strategic vision of senior managers, the BVS was used as a tool to enable strategy to emerge from within the organisation, rather than as a mechanism for cascading down the hierarchy the strategy previously established by top-level managers. However, although the profitability of the company increased significantly over the period of the culture change project, many other things were also changing; consequently, it is not possible to isolate the effects on profits of introducing the BVS. Nevertheless, the belief within BAE Systems is that the BVS has made an important contribution to the recent success of the company.     

战略性新兴产业系统自组织条件:耗散结构研究

战略性新兴产业系统是一个具备开放性、非平衡性、非线性和随机涨落的动态体系。依据普利高津的耗散结构理论,对战略性新兴产业系统的演化发展条件、运行机制进行定性研究,得出系统演化状态随着系统总熵变化而变化的结论。总熵越低,体系的演变成长状况越有序;总熵越高,体系的有序度越低。此外,通过构建战略性新兴产业系统的布鲁塞尔器(Brusselator)模型,对该系统自组织演化发展条件,即耗散结构产生的条件进行了量化研究。     

Detecting self-organisational change in economic processes exhibiting logistic growth

This paper offers an econometric methodology for the detection of self-organisational change (defined in terms of the presence of time irreversibility, structural change and fundamental uncertainty) in economic processes that follow logistic diffusion growth paths in historical time. The approach we adopted is built upon recent developments in `moving window' spectral methods which are applied to the scaled residuals generated by estimated logistic diffusion models. We illustrate the use of such methods by examining the case of a financial instrument, namely, the Australian Building Society Deposit, which experienced logistic growth in its market share until bank deregulation was enacted in the 1980s. We show that there is clear evidence that self-organisational change is present over the historical period considered.     

NVC龙企功能升级模式演进及机理纵向案例研究——技术自主性视角

国内龙头企业核心技术自主可控成为制约NVC（国内价值链）功能升级的关键问题。通过文献归纳,以能力自主与产权自主解构技术自主性内涵,并根据产品平台与技术轨道双维度划分NVC龙企功能升级模式。基于“能力—战略—行为—绩效（RSCP）”分析框架,选取华为海思公司作为纵向案例研究对象,探索技术自主性视角下NVC龙企功能升级模式及演进机理。结果发现,模块创新与知识产权创造能力通过产品渐进升级模式提升供应链;架构创新与知识产权布局能力可以调整技术轨道,通过产品突破升级模式I打通创新链;架构创新、模块创新和知识产权运营能力可以变革技术轨道,通过产品突破升级模式II主导价值链。