Exchange Rate Economics

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative “behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development strategy is to permit a correct appraisal of the dangers of Dutch disease. Empirically it seems that from the standpoint of promoting development it is preferable to have a mildly undervalued rate. The paper concludes by examining implications for exchange rate regimes.

人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响

改革开放以来,我国凭借国内生产的成本优势在国际贸易中获取了大量利益。出口刺激了经济的快速增长,然而持续顺差带来的本币升值问题却成为我国经济发展中的两难。虽然汇率升值可能造成出口部门竞争力下降,但是,理论上讲,汇率的升值也能够缓解国内通货膨胀的压力,并且能够降低进口原材料价格,从而降低国内的生产成本。然而,自汇改以来,人民币的升值并没有减缓通胀压力,相反的,升值一直伴随着物价的上涨,于此同时,人民币汇率、国内资产价格和物价之间的联动越来越明显。本文从人民币汇率预期、资产价格和物价的关系入手,研究人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响。结果表明,人民币升值预期会导致我国国内生产成本的上涨,即成本优势的丧失。     

利率市场化、商业银行信贷与企业融资行为

利率市场化是提升金融资源配置效率的重要手段。本文通过分析利率市场化对商业银行信贷和企业融资行为的影响机制和理论模型,比较利率管制、利差管制和利率市场化条件下资本所有者、资本中介者和资本需求者的行为模式,指出利率市场化对资本所有者的收益、资本中介者的经营效率以及企业的融资结构、企业融资约束的放松都产生了积极正向的效应。"十二五"期间,我国需要有计划、有步骤、坚定不移地推进利率市场化改革,并以此为契机,提升商业银行经营效率,优化企业融资结构,缓解企业尤其是中小企业的融资困境。     

汇率冲击和行业就业调整

根据Campa和Goldberg的贸易结构理论,我们对国内15个行业就业和汇率间的关系进行了实证研究。结果发现大多数行业在汇率冲击后的反应和理论一致,即人民币升值会抑制其就业增长,而贬值有利于其就业扩张,尤其是对高开放度和劳动密集型行业影响显著。但由于其他行业就业汇率弹性并不显著,因此降低了整体就业汇率弹性的显著性。此外,由于我国各行业开放度高于美国,因此就业汇率弹性也较大。     

税制改革和国有商业银行资本充足率的内源性提升

金融部门被认为是现代市场经济的枢纽和命脉,其效率水平会对整个经济的效率水平产生基础性影响。资本充足率是衡量银行抵御风险能力和稳健性的重要指标,我国国有商业银行资本充足率状况不容乐观。税收作为国家主要政策手段,是金融发展的重要制度因素。文章从税制改革角度,探讨提升国有商业银行资本充足率的问题。     

人民币汇率调整对我国产业结构的影响分析

我国长期实施汇率低估以及固定汇率制度,使我国的经济结构遭到扭曲,产业结构不能得到优化,影响了国民收入水平的持续提升。中国人民银行于2005年7月21日宣布,人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,人民币汇率制度实行以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节,有管理的浮动汇率制度,并且使人民币升值1.9%。这一决定的实施能够使汇率水平逐渐向均衡汇率水平靠拢,汇率的形成机制逐渐得到完善,而且能够使我国经济结构进行有序调整,使我国的产业结构得到优化升级。     

Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

人民币实际汇率调整趋势与中国经济转型

1978年以来的人民币实际汇率呈现出长期的贬值态势,本文结合中国经济改革的历程深入分析了实际汇率贬值的内在机制,认为市场化进程中的制度变迁和技术进步是其根本原因。而目前经济的内外失衡所引发的实际汇率和名义汇率的升值压力,本质上是深层次市场化改革推进受阻后经济结构扭曲的外在表现。本文认为,以汇率形成机制改革为主要内容的名义的市场化改革只能缓解而无法根除这种压力,推行土地、劳动力和自然资源等要素价格在内的实际的市场改革才是纠正内外失衡,缓解汇率升值压力的治本之道。     

我国高校科研“投入产出最小化”现象成因与对策研究

高校虽是我国三大科研主体之一,但其科研活动却广受诟病。在已有研究的基础上,深入分析我国高校科技成果转化率较低的主客观原因,发现高校科研系统存在着“投入产出最大化”悖论。基于“外部性”与“零和博弈”等经典理论,提出了“投入产出最小化”概念。根据“投入产出最小化”现象的本质和成因,从强化激励、加强监管、改善环境3个方面提出了系统性对策与建议。“投入产出最小化”现象的提出,为分析当前高校科研活动绩效提供了新的研究视角,对相关问题的进一步探讨具有借鉴意义。     

Instability in the dividend policy of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) corporations: evidence from an emerging market

Dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in emerging markets is significantly different from the widely accepted dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in developed markets. This study provides evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), an emerging European stock market, and analyses empirically whether the ISE corporations follow stable cash dividend policies in a regulatory environment that imposed mandatory dividend policies. Unlike the empirical results supporting the stable dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in developed markets, the empirical results show that the ISE corporations follow unstable cash dividend policies and the main factor that determines the amount of cash dividends is the earnings of the corporation in that year.