STOCK‐BOND CO‐MOVEMENTS AND FLIGHT‐TO‐QUALITY IN G7 COUNTRIES: A TIME‐FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

This paper examines co‐movement between stock returns and changes in 10‐year government bond yields as well as flight‐to‐quality behaviour in G7 countries. We conduct the wavelet squared coherence analysis to explore the dynamics in both time and frequency domain. Our results provide evidence of positive co‐movements, which vary over time and across investment horizon. The higher co‐movement is found to be more concentrated in the lower frequency bands. We further analyse the dynamic nature of the scale‐dependent wavelet correlations and find that the correlations are highly volatile and significantly increase across different time scales during the episodes of equity market turbulence. The increase in correlations reflects flights from stocks to safer bond investments as a result of dramatic changes in investor sentiment and risk aversion at times of market stress.     

Semitractability of optimal stopping problems via a weighted stochastic mesh algorithm

In this paper, we propose a Weighted Stochastic Mesh (WSM) algorithm for approximating the value of discrete‐ and continuous‐time optimal stopping problems. In this context, we consider tractability of such problems via a useful notion of semitractability and the introduction of a tractability index for a particular numerical solution algorithm. It is shown that in the discrete‐time case the WSM algorithm leads to semitractability of the corresponding optimal stopping problem in the sense that its complexity is bounded in order by with being the dimension of the underlying Markov chain. Furthermore, we study the WSM approach in the context of continuous‐time optimal stopping problems and derive the corresponding complexity bounds. Although we cannot prove semitractability in this case, our bounds turn out to be the tightest ones among the complexity bounds known in the literature. We illustrate our theoretical findings by a numerical example.     

Lottery mindset,mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the MAX effect regarding lottery mindset in the Chinese stock market. The MAX effect significantly affects stock returns through quintile portfolio and cross-sectional regression analyses. The most-overpriced stock groups, as categorized by mispricing index, show more support for the MAX effect. However, the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) effect continues regardless of consideration for the MAX effect, indicating that the MAX effect is not a source of the IVOL effect. Our results suggest that the MAX effect, which is highly relevant for overpriced stocks, might have information for determining stock price, and appears to be independent from information of the IVOL effect in the Chinese stock market.     

The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.     

Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

Valuation of VIX and target volatility options with affine GARCH models

In this paper we propose semiclosed-form solutions, subject to an inversion of the Fourier transform, for the price of VIX options and target volatility options under affine GARCH models based on Gaussian and Inverse Gaussian distributions. We illustrate the advantage of the proposed analytic expressions by comparing them with those obtained from benchmark Monte–Carlo simulations. The empirical performance of the two affine GARCH models is tested using different calibration exercises based on historical returns and market quotes on VIX and SPX options.     

Working capital (mis)management – impact of executive age

Several recent studies have used the upper echelons theory to explain the impact of personal traits of top executives on various corporate policies. In this, first of its kind, study we find that older executives invest more in working capital; take longer to convert inventories to cash; and pay their suppliers sooner. These findings are consistent with the argument that risk aversion increases with executive age. Our findings indicate that executive age has significant bearing on working capital management policies. This study also initiates new avenues in research relating behavioral aspect of executives with short‐term financial management.     

#br# 融资融券加大了沪深股市波动吗*

融资融券设计初衷是通过融资加强市场流动性和通过融券提供投资者规避价格下跌风险的金融工具，改善由供求关系严重失衡导致市场巨幅震荡的局面，实现资本市场长期稳定的目标。实际操作中，融资融券疏通货币市场和资本市场间的资金流动，撬动巨额资金涌入股市；融资规模扩张过快而融券做空力量薄弱，业务结构发展严重失衡，导致两融业务具有“小冲击、大波动”的金融加速效应，放大了外部冲击引起股价上涨和下跌的幅度。协整回归分析表明，两融业务规模的扩张和收缩对上证指数涨跌具有显著的同向影响。TGARCH事件模型结果进一步证实融资融券从稳定股价到加剧波动的功能变化。随着标的股票扩容和业务常规化，两融业务导致股市投机过度，加剧了沪深两市的资产价格异动，没有达到平抑波动的设计预期。     

Extendible stock loan

In this paper, the model of extendible stock loan with forbearance is proposed. The loan is extendible, so as to prevent immediate losses or to prevent subsequent price drop; while the forbearance is granted only when the pledged share’s value is above threshold, so as to mitigate the risk-taking behavior induced by the extension. The non-synchronization of the liquidation of insolvent stock loans also alleviates the downward leverage spiral in a market downturn. Numerical analysis shows that fair extendible stock loan rates increase with the forbearance level as well as extension period, and loan rates are quite sensitive to the change of asset volatility and debt ratio. For lenders waiving the interest rates during extension period, their burden grows with extension rapidly when they grant looser forbearance and when asset volatility or loan-to-value is higher. Some suggestions are made accordingly. First, lenders offering uniform extendible loan rate can let borrowers choose between looser forbearance with shorter extension, or tighter forbearance with longer extension. Second, if the loan rate is priced fairly, lower margin requirement can only be accomplished with tighter forbearance. More looser forbearance worth higher rates.     

Expanding airport capacity of cities under uncertainty: Strategies to mitigate congestion

Airport capacity constraints are increasingly challenging the growth of air traffic. At the same time, decision-making about airport capacity investments is extremely complex, involving trade-offs. This paper’s objective is to optimise a privately owned airport system’s capacity investment decision in a city under demand uncertainty. Next to the investment size, our real options model incorporates the timing of the investment, as well as the cost of congestion. The results reveal that the larger a city’s initial airport capacity, the smaller its investment will relatively be and the lower the occupancy rate threshold at which investment will take place. We also show that, in case of a higher demand growth combined with more demand uncertainty, the city will benefit from a significantly larger investment, but made later at a higher occupancy rate. In this case, cities with a small initial capacity will sometimes even more than double current capacity. Higher airport charges and an increase in non-aeronautical revenues both lead to a later investment in more capacity, due to the increased project attractiveness. An increase in congestion costs results in a larger investment made earlier, in order to eliminate delays. Airport operational cost and capacity holding cost increases both lead to smaller investments.