ARE LONG-HORIZON STOCK RETURNS PREDICTABLE? A BOOTSTRAP ANALYSIS

This paper examines empirical evidence of predictability of long-horizon real and excess stock returns in the UK using univariate as well as multivariate Variance Ratio tests. In order to estimate the sampling distribution of the test statistics, artificial histories ofstock returns are generated from their empirical distribution using the bootstrap method. This allows the construction of significance levels of the test statistic which are free from distributional assumptions. The empirical results indicate that there is no evidence of mean reversion in stock prices even if a wider information set to forecast stock returns is used and that the significance of historical Variance Ratio statistics has been overstated by previous studies.     

Monte Carlo Evaluation of Greeks for Multidimensional Barrier and Lookback Options

In this paper, we consider the problem of the numerical computation of Greeks for a multidimensional barrier and lookback style options: the payoff function depends in a rather general way on the minima and maxima of the coordinates of the d -dimensional underlying asset process. Using Malliavin calculus techniques, we derive additional weights that enable computation of the Greeks using Monte Carlo simulations. Numerical experiments confirm the efficiency of the method. This work is a multidimensional extension of previous results (see Gobet and Kohatsu-Higa 2001 ).     

Immunizing Foreign Exchange Contracts Against Swap Rate and Volatility Risks

Swap rate risk, also called the problem of' "maturity gaps," originates from foreign currency holdings whenever the involved contracts have differing maturities. Such differing maturities give rise to a sensitivity of the portfolio values with respect to the "swap rate," or differential between the relative interest rates in two countries. Volatility risk, which typically affects only currency contracts having asymmetric payoffs (such as currency options), gives rise to a sensitivity of portfolio values with respect to changes in the exchange rate volatility. In this article we show how currency portfolios may be immunized , or made insensitive, to both swap rate risk and volatility risk, in the sense of Macaulay's (1938) classical treatment of interest rate risk. The European currency option contract is the primary subject of our discussion, since we show that both ordinary forward contracts and other complicated currency contracts are equivalent to suitable combinations of European currency options.     

循环经济理论在城市垃圾处理行业中的应用

本文从循环经济的3R原则出发,构建了基于循环经济理念的城市垃圾处理模式,探讨了该模式实施时存在的障碍并从政策法规、宣传教育、技术研发和资金投入四个方面提出了应对策略。     

金融控股公司：商业银行——实践混业经营的组织模式选择

在当前状况下,构建金融控股公司是我国商业银行实践混业经营的一种有效的组织模式选择,其原因除了金融控股公司特有的组织结构和经营方式上的特征外,还能有效地避开法律对于混业经营的限制;有效阻断银行、证券、保险和其他金融业务的风险传递;有利于进行金融监管。现阶段以商业银行为主导构建金融控股公司、实践混业经营的过程中,应该把握好若干主要方面,即国有商业银行的股份制改造、组织机构整合与上市;利用兼并、收购、合并等手段实现扩张;对现有不规范的金融控股公司进行规范和完善;还要注重建立内部“防火墙”制度。     

Allocating Control over Firms: Stock Markets versus Membership Markets

The theory of the firm must explain howdecision-making powers are allocated between suppliersof capital and labor. Most large enterprises awardformal control to investors rather than workers. Isuggest here that this asymmetry can be traced in partto differences between stock markets and membershipmarkets as institutional mechanisms for allocatingcontrol over firms. The attractive theoreticalproperties of membership markets are examined, alongwith some factors that may account for their rarity inpractice. These practical difficulties help explainthe rarity of labor-managed firms themselves, alongwith various facts about their design, behavior, anddistribution across industries.     

基于增量与流量关系的企业财务状况动态研究——总资产增加的原因与结构分析

企业财务分析的核心是对于财务状况的分析。影响财务状况的变量包括资产负债存量及其变化所引致的增量,现金流量和收入费用流量是导致增量的本质因素。本文分析了增量与流量之间存在的各类关系,并着重从总资产增加的原因与结构上进行了探讨。     

Mickey Mouse and the IDioT principle for assessing research contribution: discussion of ‘Is the relationship between investment and conditional cash flow volatility ambiguous,asymmetric or both?’

Keefe and Tate ( 2013 ) provide both interesting and worthwhile insights into whether, under what circumstances and to what extent cash flow volatility impacts corporate investment. In the current paper, I have two related goals. First, more narrowly, I provide a constructively critical commentary on salient aspects of their empirical strategy, giving particular emphasis to the key drivers of Keefe and Tate's contribution to the literature. Second, illustrated in the context of Keefe and Tate, my broader goal is to give general advice especially aimed at novice researchers on how to make any empirical study more appealing to a critical reader.     

确定我国企业家合理报酬的一种简易方法

以发达国家企业家的平均报酬为其人均GDP的倍数作为基准,通过一定的方法,可以确定出我国企业家合理的平均报酬、基本工资,由此,还可以确定出某企业企业家的合理报酬、基本工资,以及奖金、股权数量和股票期权数量。