Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

征税成本领先性假设与中国税务组织结构优化——兼析中国国税、地税机构是否存在合并趋势

本文从征税成本领先性假设出发探讨了中国税务组织结构的优化问题 ,并分析了社会各界广泛关注的中国国税、地税机构是否存在合并趋势的问题。本文在对中国现行税务组织机构运行绩效考察的基础上 ,发现中国征税成本曲线呈抛物线状 ,表明中国征税成本正呈递减趋势。以此为出发点 ,本文详细论证了中国国税、地税机构不存在合并的趋势 ,相反 ,分设更为彻底却是今后的发展趋势 ,得出了与一般看法不同的结论 ,并对优化中国税务组织结构提出了政策建议     

Is capital a collusion device?

Summary. We examine how irreversible capital reduces the possibility of a duopoly to sustain implicit collusion by grim strategies, when the product is homogenous and firms compete in quantities. Compared with the case of reversible capital, there are two countervailing effects: Deviation from an existing collusion is less attractive, because capital once installed causes costs forever. But the punishment will also be less severe due to the high capacity the deviating firm can build before punishment starts. The last effect dominates, meaning that the commitment value of capital is negative for all firms. If capital is irreversible, collusion breaks down for realistic magnitudes of interest rates. Received: April 30, 1999; revised version: November 30, 2001     

Economic liberalization and welfare in a model with an informal sector

The paper reexamines the conventional results relating to inflow of foreign capital, removal of protectionism and structural reform programmes, in a small open economy in terms of a two-sector general equilibrium model with an informal sector. The paper shows that in the presence of labour market distortion and a protectionist policy, inflow of foreign capital may be desirable irrespective of the pattern of trade of the economy due to its favourable impact on welfare. But the welfare implications of tariff reductions and/or structural adjustment programmes, such as deregulating the formal sector labour market, depend crucially on the economy's trade pattern. The paper provides an answer to the question as to whether in a developing economy labour market reform and tariff reform should go hand-in-hand or whether one should precede the other for welfare improvement.
JEL classification: F10, F13, F21, O17.     

从广西看大西南出海通道建设

广西在大西南出海通道的建设中占有极其重要的地位，本文采用网络模型，按现状与规划路网两种情况，综合考虑陆上距离和去不同方向市场的海上距离，分析了北海（代表广西港口群）、湛江、广州等三条出海通道的三个港。各自的吸引范围。并由此得出了一些有益的结论。     

Teams, Firms and the Evolution of Profit Seeking Behavior

Even as advances in information theory over the last quarter century have cast increasing doubt on the proposition that firms successfully maximize profits, the objective of profit maximization continues to be an axiomatic feature of the neoclassical theory of the firm. This paper attempts to improve our understanding firms by treating the objective function as an open question. Specifically, an ontogenetic thought experiment is undertaken to address the question of what differentiates production teams from firms by asking why team members would sell their control rights to a principal, thereby transforming the team into a firm. What results is an account of the emergence of the objective of profit seeking. Profit seeking emerges endogenously as a more fit alternative than the objective of value maximization, which is less capable of coping with uncertainty through purposive adaptation.     

内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场的战略模式选择

内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场对其自身发展壮大和西藏居民健康状况的改善具有双重的意义，因此对进入的战略模式选择的研究是至关重要的。本文分析了内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场的必要性、可行性，在此基础上研究了进入市场的四种主要战略模式选择，阐述了不同战略模式的特征。希望本文的研究能够给我国制药企业的发展和西藏的医疗卫生进步作出贡献。     

企业高技能型人才培养机制构建新探

随着科学技术的高速发展,我国工业企业高技能型人才出现了严重的短缺现象,应引起有关部门及企业界人士的高度重视.培养大批高级专业技术人才与高级技工人才有利于增强企业的竞争能力,应针对高技能型人才的目前状况,确定相应的培养途径和措施.     

科研开发与经济增长——兼论科研开发的溢出效应

经济划分为科研部门和非科研部门，科研开发对经济增长的作用及科研对非科研部门具有外溢效应。1999-2003年30个省市自治区的面板数据表明，科研开发对经济增长具有较大的拉动作用，同时科研开发部门对其他部门的外溢作用明显为正。     

汇率决定理论的新近发展:文献综述

传统汇率决定理论对于现实经济中汇率实际变动情况的解释能力十分低下.20世纪80年代以来,学术界不断寻求突破,以期为汇率如何决定这一基本命题提供更为合理的解释.在这一过程中,不断有新的文献出现,从不同的方面对传统的汇率理论进行补充、发展和替代.鉴于此,本文试图对汇率决定理论的新近发展进行梳理和介绍,借以为国内经济学界研究汇率决定问题提供一个理论参考.