美国金融业对外直接投资流向的实证分析

美国1995年～2000年金融业对外直接投资流向分布极不均衡,对投资流向分布进行统计分析发现,非金融领域直接投资、1994年金融业对外直接投资存量、双边贸易量、东道国经济金融发展水平是金融业对外直接投资的主要决定因素,证明了邓宁国际生产折衷主义理论对金融业对外直接投资的解释力。据此简要分析美国对中国金融领域直接投资现状,并分析了今后发展趋势。     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

构造与市场经济相适应的现代公有制形式

公有制的改革与发展问题是建设有中国特色社会主义经济的核心问题。要完善社会主义初级阶段基本经济制度，实现公有制与市场经济的结合，只在公有制的实现形式上做文章是不够的，还必须高度重视和认其解决公有制本身的存在形式即公有制形式问题。     

关于可持续发展理论与实践的若干思考

可持续发展理论与实践的深入有赖于在四个方面的重新认识：首先，可持续发展是观念性、战略性实践性的统一；其次，可持续发展是层次性与阶段性的统一；第三，可持续发展是区域性与综合性的统一；最后， 制度变革与创新是影响可持续发展的关键因素。     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

征税成本领先性假设与中国税务组织结构优化——兼析中国国税、地税机构是否存在合并趋势

本文从征税成本领先性假设出发探讨了中国税务组织结构的优化问题 ,并分析了社会各界广泛关注的中国国税、地税机构是否存在合并趋势的问题。本文在对中国现行税务组织机构运行绩效考察的基础上 ,发现中国征税成本曲线呈抛物线状 ,表明中国征税成本正呈递减趋势。以此为出发点 ,本文详细论证了中国国税、地税机构不存在合并的趋势 ,相反 ,分设更为彻底却是今后的发展趋势 ,得出了与一般看法不同的结论 ,并对优化中国税务组织结构提出了政策建议     

Is capital a collusion device?

Summary. We examine how irreversible capital reduces the possibility of a duopoly to sustain implicit collusion by grim strategies, when the product is homogenous and firms compete in quantities. Compared with the case of reversible capital, there are two countervailing effects: Deviation from an existing collusion is less attractive, because capital once installed causes costs forever. But the punishment will also be less severe due to the high capacity the deviating firm can build before punishment starts. The last effect dominates, meaning that the commitment value of capital is negative for all firms. If capital is irreversible, collusion breaks down for realistic magnitudes of interest rates. Received: April 30, 1999; revised version: November 30, 2001     

Economic liberalization and welfare in a model with an informal sector

The paper reexamines the conventional results relating to inflow of foreign capital, removal of protectionism and structural reform programmes, in a small open economy in terms of a two-sector general equilibrium model with an informal sector. The paper shows that in the presence of labour market distortion and a protectionist policy, inflow of foreign capital may be desirable irrespective of the pattern of trade of the economy due to its favourable impact on welfare. But the welfare implications of tariff reductions and/or structural adjustment programmes, such as deregulating the formal sector labour market, depend crucially on the economy's trade pattern. The paper provides an answer to the question as to whether in a developing economy labour market reform and tariff reform should go hand-in-hand or whether one should precede the other for welfare improvement.
JEL classification: F10, F13, F21, O17.     

从广西看大西南出海通道建设

广西在大西南出海通道的建设中占有极其重要的地位，本文采用网络模型，按现状与规划路网两种情况，综合考虑陆上距离和去不同方向市场的海上距离，分析了北海（代表广西港口群）、湛江、广州等三条出海通道的三个港。各自的吸引范围。并由此得出了一些有益的结论。