Narrative construction of expatriate experience and career cycle: discursive patterns in Finnish stories of international

Expatriate experience is not only a disconnected occasion for cross-cultural anxiety and adjustment but also an important event in the process of self-development and learning. Following this view and arguing for a discursive approach, the paper focuses on ways in which expatriates themselves tell and interpret their development and movement across expatriate career cycle. Meaning systems connecting expatriate job with previous and following work experiences in career stories of Finnish engineers and managers were identified using a combination of narrative and discourse analysis. No evidence was found of an autonomous expatriate discourse but, in contrast, expatriate career cycle was narrated using available organizational repertoires of development and career. Describing and discussing the meaning-making properties of three identified discourses - bureaucratic, occupational and enterprising - the paper emphasizes the organizational environment of expatriate experience while acknowledging the limits of these contemporary career vocabularies in addressing individual learning and change in cross-cultural settings.     

一种基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯索赔校正模型

Btihlmann模型是贝叶斯方法在经验费率厘定中最为著名的应用，然而该模型在结构参数先验信息不足的情况下，并不能得出参数的无偏后验估计。本文针对传统方法的不足，运用基于MCMC模拟的贝叶斯方法对历史数据进行校正，通过Gibbs抽样构造出一种多层Poisson模型稳态分布的马尔可夫链，动态模拟出索赔频率的后验分布以及缺失参数值的后验估计，改进了传统的索赔校正模型，提高了计算的精度。利用WinBUGS软件包进行建模分析，证明了该模型的直观性与有效性。     

国际生物经济发展政策及对我国的启示

被誉为"第四次浪潮"的生物经济是一种全新的经济形态,将成为21世纪20年代后世界经济发展的主体。为了能成为生物经济浪潮的引领者,世界各国都制定了各种优惠政策来促进生物经济的发展,充分发挥生物经济对经济社会的推动作用。对在生物经济领域领先国家的生物技术产业发展政策进行梳理和分析,并在此基础上提出发展我国生物技术产业的政策和建议。     

借鉴韩国经验稳健发展我国创业板市场

创业板市场,又称二板市场,是给创业型企业上市融资的股票市场。为应对全球金融危机和建设创新型国家的需要,我国于2009年10月23日开设创业板市场。韩国科斯达克市场成功发展为世界上发展最迅速、最具活力、处于领先行列的创业板市场。其成功经验值得在创业板市场上处于初创时期的我国借鉴。     

私有信息、评级偏差和中国评级机构的市场声誉

考虑到评级机构拥有市场声誉的本质在于其可以通过扭曲评级从而对市场产生影响,本文分两步研究中国发行人付费评级机构的市场声誉:第一步,将信用评级对各种基本面因素进行回归,并以实际评级与回归预测值的差值作为评级偏差的量度。与既有文献相比,本文的重要改进是在基本面因素中引入了发债企业与各评级机构(分支机构)最短距离的均值和方差,这能较好地控制因发债企业私有信息可能造成的选择偏误。第二步,考察评级偏差和机构特征如何影响企业的发债成本。研究表明,中国评级机构作为一个整体具有显著的市场声誉,但各评级机构之间存在很大的差异性。最后,考虑到评级机构与发债企业在选址上可能会有集聚效应,我们基于高铁开通事件进行双重差分检验,研究表明本文结论是稳健的。     

Rating Agencies – An Experimental Analysis of Their Remuneration Model

Does it matter who pays for ratings? Yes, but not for the rating agencies’ behavior. These are the findings of our experiment where we analyze the effect of the remuneration model of rating agencies on their assessments as well as on investors’ and issuers’ behavior. First, we find that rating agencies’ assessments are comparable whether the agency is (partially) paid by issuers, investors or solely by the experimenter. Issuers, on the other hand, more often do not return investor's trust when they or investors pay for ratings. Further, investors more often act according to the agencies’ recommendations when they have to pay for this information.     

对产业集群客户授信风险管理的思考

贷款客户集中度是衡量贷款风险的一项重要指标。特别是2008年世界金融危机发生后,各国都在防范金融风险上加强控制,随着巴塞尔协议3逐步广泛得到世界各国的认同和实施,贷款集中度问题越来越应该引起重视。但是,由于事实上的微观动作,贷款集中有趋重的趋势,其中产业集群客户授信是重要手段。本文结合授信风险管理存在的问题提出建议。     

Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts

If ‘learning by doing’ is important for macro-forecasting, newcomers might be different from regular, established participants. Stayers may also differ from the soon-to-leave. We test these conjectures for macro-forecasters’ point predictions of output growth and inflation, and for their histogram forecasts. Histogram forecasts of inflation by both joiners and leavers are found to be less accurate, especially if we suppose that joiners take time to learn. For GDP growth, there is no evidence of differences between the groups in terms of histogram forecast accuracy, although GDP point forecasts by leavers are less accurate. These findings are predicated on forecasters being homogeneous within groups. Allowing for individual fixed effects suggests fewer differences, including leavers’ inflation histogram forecasts being no less accurate.     

政策推动还是市场驱动?--基于文本挖掘技术的绿色金融发展指数计算及影响因素分析

本文运用文本挖掘法测算了2012~2017年全国31个省市区绿色金融发展指数水平,在此基础之上,首次较为全面地检验了政策推动、金融发展、生态环境和经济基础四大类因素对各地绿色金融发展水平的影响,并分别对2012~2014年、2015~2017年两个时间段子样本,以及东、中、西部三个区域子样本进行了进一步检验。实证结果表明:从全国来看,地方专门政策和金融发展水平是推动我国各地绿色金融发展的关键变量,但金融发展水平的影响并不稳定,且有赖于地方政策的实施;从时间上看,金融发展水平和地方政策推动分别是2015年前后我国各地绿色金融发展的主要影响因素,2015年后政策的出台进一步增强了金融发展对绿色金融的推动作用;分区域看,由金融发展水平主导的、自下而上的绿色金融创新在东部地区更为活跃,而西部地区则更有赖于地方政策主导的、自上而下的支持。     

日本碳税实践经验及启示

2014年政府工作报告指出要做好环保税立法相关工作,而目前国内关于环保税中碳税的开征仍存在着争议。日本自2007年开始实施碳税方案以来,取得了明显的成效,在碳税实践方面拥有着丰富的经验。因此,本文在对日本碳税实践方案以及我国实际情况进行深入研究与分析的基础上,提出日本碳税实践经验对中国的四点启示：中国开征碳税应从国情出发,低起点、有步骤地推进碳税开征;将碳税与现有的能源税收相结合;做好课税的相关优惠政策与配套工作;加强碳税宣传与监督。