阪神大地震的灾后重建工作及其启示

从机构设置、立法、规划、资金投放情况等方面对阪神大地震的灾后重建工作进行了梳理,并引出对四川大地震灾后重建工作的5点启示:灾后重建工作中必须明确各级政府的支出责任;重建工作要重视发挥地方政府的作用;重建规划应按照轻重缓急统筹进行;产业复兴要把产业结构调整升级放在重要地位;产业复兴要把中小企业作为重点扶持对象.     

出口与增长:中国三十年经验实证(1978-2008)

改革开放三十年来,我国经济和时外贸易成就斐然.那么,对外贸易与经济增长两者之间究竟是什么关系,中国奇迹般的经济增长何以能够实现,出口对于增长贡献了什么,我们从出口和增长的关联中能够得到哪些经验.本文在全面解析三十年经济成就以及参考国内外文献的基础上,实证检验和分析了出口推动中国经济增长的作用,并从中总结和得到了相关的经验扣结论.     

Testing time-homogeneity of rating transitions after origination of debt

When modelling rating transitions as continuous-time Markov processes, in practice, time-homogeneity is a common assumption, yet restrictive, in order to reduce the complexity of the model. This paper investigates whether rating transition probabilities change after the origination of debt. Accordingly, we develop a likelihood-ratio test for the hypothesis of time-homogeneity. The alternative is a step function of transition intensities. The test rejects time-homogeneity for rating transitions observed over 7 years in a real corporate portfolio. Especially 1-year transition probabilities increase over the first year after origination. This time effect suggests that banks should manage their credit portfolios with respect to the age of debt.      

新能源基地建设的实践模式与经验借鉴

在世界主要国家竞相发展新能源技术、抢占新一轮经济和科技竞争制高点背景下,新能源产业正成为最富活力、最具前景的战略性新兴产业.系统总结国内外先进新能源基地建设的实践模式发现,新能源基地建设需要加强组织领导、实施新能源基地发展战略,创新体制机制、设立新能源基地建设专项基金,依托特色优势、打造新能源产业发展战略高地,培育龙头...     

干部经历会影响农户选择电商销售渠道吗?——基于荔枝种植户的实证分析

基于印记理论,选取2020年广东和广西两省荔枝主产区的964户种植户作为调研对象,运用logit模型进行实证分析,探索干部经历对农户选择电商销售渠道的影响。结果显示:干部经历对荔枝种植户采用电商销售具有显著的正向影响,而农户自身具有的销售渠道资源也是荔枝种植户选择电商销售的动力之一,其与干部经历带有的政治资本共同推动种植户选择电商销售。因此,要发挥具有干部经历的农户在农产品电商发展中的带头人作用,培育当地的销售服务团队与提供更多的销售渠道资源,并联合社会多方力量加大对农产品电商销售的培训力度。     

我国大学科技园发展现状与对策建议

随着知识经济的飞速发展,大学科技园受到越来越多的关注,成为许多国家新的经济增长点,然而在我国由于大学所有制和市场竞争体制的影响,大学科技园在实际建设中遇到许多新问题。本文通过对国内外大学科技园运营状况进行对比,指出了我国在发展大学科技园过程中所遇到的问题和产生的原因,并提出了相应的解决建议。     

结构性违约、信用分层与评级机构的策略性反应——来自中国信用债市场的证据

2014年以来,以主要集中于民企的"结构性违约"宣告了中国信用债市场刚性兑付的"结构性打破",债券市场进入了新的发展阶段。利用2013-2017年债券数据,本文深入分析了结构性违约对评级机构行为和效率的影响,主要有如下发现：首先,信用评级的市场公信力会因政府隐性担保导致的"刚性兑付"而削弱;其次,结构性违约爆发之后,信用评级的整体效率有所提升,但在不同发行主体呈现分化,对于非城投类企业,信用评级对发行利差的影响显著增大,意味着评级公信力的显著提升,而对于城投类企业,评级效率并未明显改善;进一步研究表明,出现这种情况的原因在于评级机构在违约后采取了差异化的评级策略,对于违约风险较大的非城投类债券,评级机构倾向采取"收紧评级"的策略;对于违约风险较低的城投债,评级机构倾向于采取"放宽评级"的策略。这种策略性行为是导致市场"信用分层"的重要原因,并有可能推升民营企业的融资成本。     

A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies

Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system requires the large-scale introduction of novel energy demand and supply technologies. Such novel technologies are often expensive at the point of their market introduction but eventually become cheaper due to technological learning. In order to quantify potentials for price and cost decline, the experience curve approach has been extensively applied to renewable and non-renewable energy supply technologies. However, its application to energy demand technologies is far less frequent. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. We find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%. This finding is consistent with the results for energy supply technologies and for manufacturing in general. Learning rates for individual energy demand technologies are symmetrically distributed around the arithmetic mean of the data sample. Absolute variation of learning rates within individual technology clusters of 7 ± 4%-points and between technology clusters of 7 ± 5%-points both contribute to the overall variability of learning rates. Our results show that technological learning is as important for energy demand technologies as it is for energy supply technologies. Applying the experience curve approach to forecast technology costs involves, however, unresolved uncertainties, as we demonstrate in a case study for the micro-cogeneration technology.     

农村金融发展:现状、问题及对策——以吉林省辽源市为例

本文以辽源市农村金融体系建设现状为基础,通过对农村金融发展新特点的研究,深入挖掘目前农村金融体系建设的新问题,进而借鉴国际的先进经验,探讨中国在后危机背景下,如何发展农村金融,进一步提出促进农村金融发展的相关建议。     

Information direction, website reputation and eWOM effect: A moderating role of product type

This article examines how the electronic word of mouth (eWOM) information direction (positive vs. negative) and a website's reputation (established vs. unestablished) contribute to the eWOM effect. The article describes a study focusing on the moderating role of the product type (search vs. experience). The results of the experiment show that the eWOM effect is greater for negative eWOM than for positive eWOM, greater for established websites than for unestablished websites, and greater for experience goods than for search goods. The results support the moderating effects of product type on the eWOM information direction-website reputation-eWOM effect relationship. The impact of negative eWOM on the eWOM effect is greater for experience goods than for search goods. Similarly, the impact of website reputation on the eWOM effect is greater for experience goods than for search goods. The findings provide managerial implications for an Internet marketing strategy.