基于TOPSIS法的临空经济发展阶段评价模型构建——以国内区域航空枢纽城市为例

为深入了解对临空经济发展阶段产生影响的各因素重要程度及其内部联系，提升各城市临空经济发展阶段，需要构建科学客观准确的临空经济发展阶段评价模型。基于波特钻石理论模型与“港、产、城”理论、临空经济内涵，选取5个一级指标、12个二级指标、35个三级指标构成临空经济发展阶段评价指标体系，采用客观的熵值法与主观的层次分析法相结合的组合赋权法计算临空经济发展阶段影响因素的组合权重，采用组合权重与标准化数据构成的改进型TOPSIS法构建临空经济发展阶段评价模型。以中国8个区域航空枢纽城市沈阳、郑州、西安、乌鲁木齐、昆明、成都、重庆和武汉为例，进行实证研究。结果表明，成都、重庆临空经济发展阶段处于发展后期，郑州、西安和武汉的临空经济发展阶段处于发展前期，沈阳、乌鲁木齐和昆明的临空经济发展阶段处于起步期。     

Model combinations through revised base rates

Standard selection criteria for forecasting models focus on information that is calculated for each series independently, disregarding the general tendencies and performance of the candidate models. In this paper, we propose a new way to perform statistical model selection and model combination that incorporates the base rates of the candidate forecasting models, which are then revised so that the per-series information is taken into account. We examine two schemes that are based on the precision and sensitivity information from the contingency table of the base rates. We apply our approach on pools of either exponential smoothing or ARMA models, considering both simulated and real time series, and show that our schemes work better than standard statistical benchmarks. We test the significance and sensitivity of our results, discuss the connection of our approach to other cross-learning approaches, and offer insights regarding implications for theory and practice.     

基于博弈论组合赋权的通航机场短途运输服务质量评价

为评价国内通用航空短途运输的服务质量，建立了总共六个维度、二十四个指标服务质量评价体系并发放问卷对某一通航机场进行服务质量调查。采用博弈论组合赋权的方法对指标进行赋权兼顾主观权重与客观权重，运用模糊综合评价的方法找到某些维度评分不高的问题及原因，针对具体问题给出相关建议，对于提高通用航空服务质量与促进通航发展具有一定的理论及现实意义。