SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位——汇率市场波动传染与波动聚类的实时甄别

随着人民币国际化进程的逐步推进,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位引人瞩目。本文基于非线性MSBIARCH模型,实时甄别人民币市场与美元市场、英镑市场、日元市场、欧元市场之间的波动传染关系,以及波动传染作用下汇率市场的波动聚类态势,进而识别SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位,旨在为及时防范并规避人民币市场的波动风险提供参考。研究发现,汇率市场经由“经济基本面”“市场情绪”以及“市场预期”对外发挥波动传染作用,人民币市场与美元市场之间存在双向波动传染关系,与英镑市场、欧元市场以及日元市场之间存在单向波动传染关系。不同汇率市场之间的波动传染关系表现出时间区制转移特征,汇率市场的波动聚类态势也呈现时变特征。汇率市场发挥波动传染作用的时间与汇率市场呈现波动聚类态势的时间相匹配,均集中在极端经济事件期、不规则事件期以及政策颁布事件期。国际汇率市场的波动传染作用导致了人民币市场的波动聚类态势,而人民币市场的波动传染作用仅强化了国际汇率市场的波动聚类态势,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化程度有待进一步提高。     

The impact of external reference price on consumer price expectations

Comparative pricing practices are frequently used where actual product prices are accompanied by higher external reference prices. All types of stores, regular-price department stores as well as discount stores, use comparative price claims to frame price deals as attractive [Marketing Science 4 (1985) 199]. In this paper, a quadratic model is specified for the impact of external reference price (ERP) on consumer price expectations. Based on the research on communication discrepancy and advertising claim discrepancy, which in turn draw on assimilation-contrast, attribution, and prospect theories, we hypothesize a quadratic effect of external reference prices on consumer price expectations. An interactive, computer-controlled experiment using multiple levels of ERP is used to estimate the proposed model. As hypothesized, support for an inverted U-shape relationship is found between consumers’ updated price expectations and the difference between ERP and initial price expectations. That is, as the difference between ERP and subjects’ initial price expectations increases, subjects’ updated price expectations increase to a point and then start to decrease. We find that the fit of the quadratic model specification for the effect of external reference price on price expectations is noticeably superior to that of linear, logarithmic, square root, and S-shaped specifications. Finally, we provide implications of our results for both retail managers and for regulatory authorities alike.     

Contracting Under Endogenous Risk

Agents make decisions by trading off cost, return and risk. The literature, however, does not consider the impact of risk on action choice. We show that this tradeoff has important implications for the firm. First, the firm may provide no insurance in the salary. Since the agents action choice will determine her risk, the salary cannot compensate her for it. Second, the firm may not be able to design an incentive scheme to implement particularly risky actions. Finally, the firm may not be able to design a scheme in which the agent splits her effort across multiple tasks. This is particularly problematic for tasks that are technological substitutes.     

绿色供应链研究述评

绿色供应链是改变传统环境治理与企业发展关系的一种方法,它的发展对于促进企业和社会的可持续发展有着重要的影响。需要指出的是,绿色供应链的研究从其概念的提出到现在仅仅只有10多年,还有很多领域等待开发。不仅需要新的理论研究来支撑,还需要研究者多进行实证定量研究,来解决实际中存在的问题。     

基于PanelData模型的FDI与对外贸易关系实证研究——以浙江省为例

关于FDI与对外贸易之间的关系,学术界一直没有定论。本文利用PanelData模型,对浙江省FDI与进出口贸易之间的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明:浙江省11地市FDI对进出口贸易存在显著的创造效应和固定效应,浙东北地区FDI对进出口贸易的创造效应和固定效应明显大于浙西南地区,区域差异性较大。对此,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

Internal Marketing at Continental Airlines: Convincing Employees that Management Knows Best

Maintaining a high level of customer service quality is necessary for success, particularly for firms in service industries, but employees need to be motivated to provide it. Management can provide the motivation through the use of compensation schemes and internal marketing. In this paper we examine profit sharing compensation schemes that reward employees for achieving customer service objectives. We discuss how such schemes should be implemented, and explain why management needs to convince employees through internal marketing programs about the benefits of its scheme. We obtain the optimal amount of profit that the firm should share with employees, and the optimal effort it should spend on internal marketing. Finally, we relate the analysis to a successful scheme implemented by Continental Airlines.     

The Propensity To Sue: Why Do People Seek Legal Actions?

Tort costs as a fraction of U.S. GDP have increased over three-fold in the past 50 years, now hovering slightly above two percent. Although there has been much ink spilled blaming the plaintiffs’ bar and so-called hellhole jurisdictions, less has been written about the behavior and attitudes of individual plaintiffs. Using a unique survey from the RAND Corporation, this paper empirically analyzes the perceptual and economic factors that affect the decision of an injured party to seek legal action. We find that, independent of economic incentives, perception of fault is the most important factor in the decision to make a claim. On average, a person who blames another person or firm for his or her injury is four times more likely to claim regardless of the type of injury involved. Unsurprisingly, the severity of injury—either as perceived by the claimant or as measured by actual injury during the accident—is another key factor in explaining the claiming rate. Also, as expected, there is a negative relation between age and claiming behavior. Somewhat unexpectedly, whether the person has had experience with filing before has no independent effect on the decision to claim. JEL Classification K41     

The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and key features of the data at the country and global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories accounting for this discrepancy.     

Business Ethics versus Economic Incentives:<Emphasis Type="Italic">Contemporary Issues and Dilemmas</Emphasis>

Contemporary economic thought presumes that individuals in a society always act according to their self-interest or private economic incentives, while important ethical motivations for action, such as a concern for others and public interest, are largely ignored. This paper is based on my experience of teaching an undergraduate course that highlighted the divergence between economic incentives and ethical motives for action in present-day life and business. Teaching tools such as lectures, case and group discussions were employed to address important ethical dilemmas of individuals and managers in contemporary societies. Readings underscored the evolving relationship of business ethics and economic incentives, and the relevance of ancient ethical principles (e.g., Ethics of Interdependence, and Ethics of Prudence and Self-Development) to present-day business ethics. The course emphasized the imminent need in contemporary societies to reduce the divergence between economic incentives and ethical motives for action, and called for a greater understanding of business ethics today, given the complex ethical concerns that managers confront in the current global environment.     

对中国经济改革与发展的国际评价

本文结合中国改革开放的历程和国际发展实践的变化,以及近年来中国参与国际财经合作的过程,回顾了国际社会对中国改革和发展的看法的演变,介绍了中国入世后国际舆论的最新动态,由此得出了对内深化改革、对外有效协调国际经济利益关系的重要启示.