Hot Money and Quantitative Easing: The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on the Chinese Economy

We develop a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FA‐VAR) model to estimate the effects that unanticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy and economic policy uncertainty have on the Chinese housing, equity, and loan markets. We find the decline in the U.S. policy rate since the Great Recession has led to a significant increase in Chinese housing investment. One possible reason for this effect is the substantial increase in the inflow of “hot money” into China. The responses of Chinese variables to U.S. shocks at the zero lower bound are different from those responses in normal times.     

U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Monetary policy in the United States has been documented to have switched from reacting weakly to inflation fluctuations during the 1970s, to fighting inflation aggressively from the early 1980s onward. In this paper, I analyze the impact of the U.S. monetary policy regime switches on the Eurozone. I construct a New Keynesian two‐country model where foreign (U.S.) monetary policy switches regimes over time. I estimate the model for the U.S. and the Euro Area using quarterly data and find that the United States has switched between those two regimes, in line with existing evidence. I show that foreign regime switches affect home (Eurozone) inflation and output volatility and their responses to shocks, substantially, as long as the home central bank commits to a time‐invariant interest rate rule reacting to domestic conditions only. Optimal policy in the home country instead requires that the home central bank reacts strongly to domestic producer‐price inflation and to international variables, such as imported goods relative prices. In fact, I show that currency misalignments and relative prices play a crucial role in the transmission of foreign monetary policy regime switches internationally. Interestingly, I show that only marginal gains arise for the Euro Area when the European Central Bank (ECB) adjusts its policy according to the monetary regime in the United States. Thus, a simple time‐invariant monetary policy rule with a strong reaction to Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and relative prices is enough to counteract the effects of monetary policy switches in the United States.     

International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada

The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by implementing quantitative easing, or large‐scale asset purchases, when its conventional policy rate reached the zero lower bound. We assess the international spillover effects of this quantitative easing program on the Canadian economy in a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework, by considering a counterfactual scenario in which the Federal Reserve's long‐term asset holdings do not rise in response to the recession. We find that U.S. quantitative easing boosted Canadian output, mainly through the financial channel.     

Industry Costs of Equity: Incorporating Prior Information

I examine whether incorporating economically motivated prior information yields more accurate forecasts of industry costs of equity. I find that incorporating the long‐run mean of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) parameters and the industry characteristics in the cross section produces more accurate parameter estimates, which subsequently translate into more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts of industry costs of equity. The outperformance of this method over rolling‐window estimates becomes larger as the forecast horizon extends into the future. These findings provide evidence that the CAPM parameters have a long‐run mean‐reversion property and correlate with the industry characteristics in a systematic way.     

ETF Premiums and Liquidity Segmentation

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) provide a means for investors to access assets indirectly that may be accessible at a high cost otherwise. I show that liquidity segmentation can explain the tendency for ETFs to trade at a premium to net asset value (NAV) as well as the life‐cycle pattern in premiums. ETFs with larger NAV tracking error standard deviations (TESDs) tend to trade at higher premiums and the liquidity benefits offered by foreign ETFs and fixed income ETFs are revealed to be the most valuable to investors. Further tests validate that TESD has the desirable properties of a liquidity segmentation measure.     

Multi-scale tests for serial correlation

This paper introduces a new family of portmanteau tests for serial correlation. Using the wavelet transform, we decompose the variance of the underlying process into the variance of its low frequency and of its high frequency components and we design a variance ratio test of no serial correlation in the presence of dependence. Such decomposition can be carried out iteratively, each wavelet filter leading to a rich family of tests whose joint limiting null distribution is a multivariate normal. We illustrate the size and power properties of the proposed tests through Monte Carlo simulations.     

10kV开关设备检修要点分析及应用

在配电系统中,开关设备是非常关键的部分。它若出现故障,可能引发大面积停电事故,会增加运行成本,降低设备的使用功能,而且有损电力公司的社会形象。本文基于现代电力系统运行要求,重点分析了10kV开关设备检修要点,旨在积累更多运行维护的技术经验,在保证设备功能的前提下,降低运行成本,提高电力系统运行的安全性和可靠性。     

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

In this paper, we explicitly introduce regional factors into a global dynamic factor model. We combine new open economy factor models (emphasizing global shocks) with the recent findings of regional importance in the business cycle synchronization literature. The analysis is applied to a large panel of domestic data for four small open economies. We find that global and regional shocks explain roughly 30 and 20 percent, respectively, of the business cycle variation in all countries. While global shocks have most impact on trade variables, regional shocks explain a relatively large share of the variation in cost variables.     

Value and capacity of tax shields: An analysis of the slicing approach

Correctly valuing tax shields has been a challenge in corporate valuation. A recent study by Liu (2009) introduces the slicing approach to separating the tax shield into the earned and unearned parts. Liu also shows that the MM results are wrong, and claims that the slicing approach has finally resolved the issue of pricing tax shields, thereby bringing closure to the topic. However, through careful analysis, we refute Liu’s main claims and restore the MM results. There are still open questions and the topic is not completely resolved as claimed in Liu (2009).     

Heuristic learning and the discovery of specialization and exchange

I develop and calibrate an agent-based model of boundedly rational, adaptive agents in a two-good production and exchange economy to replicate human-subject outcomes in the same eight-person experimental economy. To test agents’ ability to capture human behavior, I extend the model and use its output to make predictions about a second experimental environment in which the group of eight agents is slowly constructed by merging smaller groups. This environment improves human-subject performance in the specialization and exchange task, and commensurate improvement emerges for some parameterizations of the agent-based model. This iterative process yields incremental improvement of decision-level theories about economic discovery.