东亚区域合作新态势及中国的战略调整

1997年东南亚金融危机使东亚各国认识到域内合作的重要性,东亚区域合作蓬勃发展。十年之后的美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,客观上推动东亚区域合作呈现出了一些新态势。与此同时,鉴于中国及东亚各国当前面临的发展问题,东亚区域合作应在遵循东盟主导的基础上开拓互联互通务实合作,增强区域凝聚力和内生发展动力,提升合作的机制化水平,实现区域内经济的可持续发展。     

上海自贸区建设对商业银行的影响及应对策略

上海自贸区的建设具有重要战略意义,是实现中国奇迹＂第二季＂的更高水平的主动开放措施。自贸区推行的监管模式改变、贸易转型升级、金融体制创新三大＂政策红利＂对我国经济发展将产生＂三大效应＂：改革示范效应、要素集聚效应和区域联动效应。对商业银行而言,上海自贸区为银行提供了新的市场机遇和业务空间,同时有利于商业银行强化业务创新。因此,商业银行必须高度重视自贸区释放出来的政策信号,抢抓金融体制创新的机遇期,通过加强政策持续跟进和研究、跟踪客户的需求、加强区内外联动、强化业务创新等措施,积极应对自贸区建设带来的影响。     

FTA 机制下中韩货物贸易逆差问题探析

1992年8月中韩两国正式建立外交关系,此后两国贸易往来日益密切,进出口贸易额不断攀升。但在中韩双边货物贸易中,中国却一直处在贸易逆差地位。中韩FTA在缓解中韩巨额货物贸易逆差上占据着突出的地位,并且通过政府和企业采取有针对性的措施能够使FTA在缓解贸易逆差上发挥更大作用。     

中韩自由贸易区预期产业效应的实证分析——以中国钢铁业为例

中韩自由贸易区（FTA）在给中国优势产业带来发展机遇的同时,也会给劣势产业带来冲击。以中国钢铁产业为例,借鉴KIEP（2005）的敏感产品选择方法,确定出中韩FTA成立后中国钢铁产业的敏感品目,从微观角度定量分析中韩FTA的成立对中国钢铁产业的预期影响,结果表明：如果给予过渡安排,对整个钢铁行业的）中击可能会小得多,如果不给予过渡安排会对国内高附加值产品,对成长中的板材生产商的发展造成较大威胁。     

美韩自由贸易协定的形成、运行机制及启示:竞争性自由化视角

本文主要从美国竞争性自由化贸易战略发展演化与实施的视角探讨美韩自由贸易协定的形成与其运行机制,并在此基础上提出构建中韩自由贸易区双赢合作机制的启示。     

自由贸易区贸易效应研究方法综述

区域经贸合作已成为各国协调贸易政策的主导力量，尤其在2000年以后，区域经济自由化的发展对区域贸易效应产生了很大的影响。因此，本文就FTA贸易效应的研究方法及其研究结果进行了总结，以便为进一步的研究提供参考。     

资本内生化条件下建立中澳自由贸易区对世界经济的影响

本文介绍了中澳双边贸易发展情况,并以资本积累理论为基础,采取全球贸易分析预测模型(GTAP)动态化方法,在考虑中澳两国中长期内贸易、投资和收入内在联结机制的基础上,模拟了资本内生化条件下中国与澳大利亚建立自由贸易区对世界经济的动态影响。结果显示,中澳建立自贸区从长期看将更有利于双方贸易的发展、经济的增长和福利水平的提高,但是对不同行业和地区的影响是有差别的,并据此提出了一些政策建议。     

Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?

Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight.The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used.Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.     

一般均衡分析在自由贸易区研究中的应用

正在建设中的“中国-东盟自由贸易区”是完全由发展中国家组成的经济集团,成员国产业结构相似,生产技术水平相当,国际分工不显著.这样的自由贸易区对区内贸易量的推动作用有其特殊性.文章尝试用一般均衡分析方法,依据比较优势理论和区域经济一体化理论,论述中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立将给其成员带来“双优势贸易效应”,从而为我国参与地区经济一体化,拓展地区市场,实现“多赢”的地区合作提供理论依据.     

“一带一路”视角下中国 - 海合会 FTA 经济效应研究——基于 GTAP 的模拟分析

本文基于最新的GTAP9数据库,将石化产业作为敏感产业并设定3种不同的模拟情景分析了中国-海合会FTA对不同国家的经济影响,结果显示：中国-海合会FTA对成员国有较强的正面效应,但对双方共同的主要贸易伙伴和“一带一路”其他沿线国家产生不同程度的反向冲击。中国和海合会应加快谈判进程以早日获得贸易自由化收益,并规避受损国家可能的暗中掣肘,同时发挥中国-海合会FTA的示范效应和“多米诺骨牌”效应,拓展与“一带一路”沿线FTA的广度和深度,深入推进“一带一路”倡议。