Gaming the FTSE 100 index

In the UK (unlike the US and many other countries), companies enter and exit the main stock market index (FTSE 100) according to a clear set of rules based on market capitalisation. This creates an opportunity to game the system to secure or retain FTSE membership by manipulating capitalisation. There is considerable evidence in extant studies that index membership is beneficial, both for shareholders and managers. Hence, companies may adopt financial strategies designed to acquire or retain membership. We investigate two types of gaming. We define strategic gaming as a situation in which companies, which may initially be a number of places away from the boundary, make abnormal share issues cumulatively over several quarters. We find strong supportive evidence for this. For tactical gaming, which would involve companies in the very closest proximity to the boundary, we do not. Our analysis shows that gaming is limited to companies outside the index trying to get in. Companies that are close to exit do not game to retain their index place. The high natural volatility of market capitalisation makes success of gaming uncertain. Our central estimate is that about 5% of entries to the index appear to be the result of gaming.     

In Defence of Capitalisation Weights: Evidence from the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Indices

A simple method for decomposing the variance covariance matrix of portfolio returns at the level of individual stocks is applied to the FTSE 100 Index. During extreme negative shocks, the largest index constituents exhibit lower than average covariance, thereby reducing the volatility of the capitalisation‐weighted index. The risk‐adjusted returns of the capitalisation‐weighted FTSE 100 Index exceed those of an equally‐weighted version of the same index and the outperformance is robust to the method of risk adjustment applied. The equally‐weighted index also exhibits greater systematic (market) risk than the capitalisation‐weighted version.     

Efficiency in the Pricing of the FTSE 100 Futures Contract

This paper studies the pricing efficiency in the FTSE 100 futures contract by linking the predictable movements in futures returns to the time-varying risk and risk premia associated with prespecified factors. The results indicate that the predictability of the FTSE 100 futures returns is consistent with a conditional multifactor model with time-varying moments. The dynamics of the factor risk premia, combined with the variation in the betas, capture most of the predictable variance of returns, leaving little variation to be explained in terms of market inefficiency. Hence the predictive power of the instruments does not justify a rejection of market efficiency.     

Does designing environmental sustainability disclosure quality measures make a difference?

Assessing the quality of information disclosed by companies is a complex task. Accounting studies usually rely on analysing the content of corporate reports using measures to obtain a proxy for the information reported by companies. However, there is no consensus about the best design for these measures. The objective of the current paper is to investigate if there are significant differences in the results generated from seven alternative measures for assessing the quality of FTSE100 environmental sustainability reporting. Seven measures/indices have been used to assess disclosure quality. The three unidimensional measures include two “quantity measures” and one “scope measure” that measure the volume and width/coverage of information, respectively. Three compound measures are adopted from the literature, and the final measure is a multidimensional quality model, based on the results of a questionnaire ascertaining the perceptions of 86 preparers and 177 users of annual report (AR) and/stand‐alone corporate responsibility report (CRR). Although the results of the empirical analysis indicate that the measures are significantly correlated, the choice of a specific method can result in the very different ranking of companies. The evidence presented indicates that the choice of measure is of key importance.     

Return and Volatility Spillovers Between Large and Small Stocks in the UK

Abstract:  This paper investigates return and volatility spillover effects between the FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and FTSE Small Cap equity indices using the multivariate GARCH framework. We find that return and volatility transmission mechanisms between large and small stocks in the UK are asymmetric. In particular, there are significant spillover effects in both returns and volatility from the portfolios of larger stocks to the portfolios of smaller stocks. For volatility, there is also evidence of limited feedback from the portfolios of smaller stocks to the portfolios of larger stocks, although sub-period analysis suggests that this is to some extent period-specific. Simulation evidence shows that non-synchronous trading potentially explains some, but not all, of the spillover effects in returns, and that it explains none of the spillover effects in volatility. These results are consistent with a market in which information is first incorporated into the prices of large stocks before being impounded into the prices of small stocks.     

Demographics, dividend clienteles and the dividend premium

The catering theory of dividends proposed that corporate dividend policy is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers, and that managers cater to investors by paying dividends when the dividend premium is high. While earlier research found that the dividend premium is not driven by traditional clienteles derived from market imperfections such as taxes, transaction costs, or institutional investment constraints, we find empirical evidence that demographic clienteles are an important source of the time-varying demand for dividend payers. In particular, we find that, as consistent with the behavioural life-cycle theory and the marginal opinion theory of stock price, the dividend premium is positively driven by demographic clientele variation represented by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the factors of investor sentiment, signalling, agency costs, tax clienteles, time trend, business cycle fluctuations and varying sample periods.     

Simulation-based estimation of peer effects

The influence of peer behavior on an individual's choices has received renewed interest in recent years. However, accurate measures of this influence are difficult to obtain. Standard reduced-form methods lead to upwardly biased estimates due to simultaneity, common shocks, and nonrandom peer group selection. This paper describes a structural econometric model of peer effects in binary choice, as well as a simulated maximum likelihood estimator for its parameters. The model is nonparametrically identified under plausible restrictions, and can place informative bounds on parameter values under much weaker restrictions. Monte Carlo results indicate that this estimator performs better than a reduced form approach in a wide variety of settings. A brief application to youth smoking demonstrates the method and suggests that previous studies dramatically overstate peer influence.     

Understanding the determinants of the magnitude of entity-level risk and account-level risk key audit matters: The case of the United Kingdom

This study was conducted to analyse the influence of auditor and client characteristics on the magnitude and type of key audit matters (KAM) disclosed in the audit reports of the FTSE 100 companies in the UK during the period 2013–2016. A recently introduced standard requires auditors to reveal the main risks faced by the client and to describe how these are addressed in the audit. Our results show that Deloitte, EY and KPMG tend to report fewer entity-level-risk KAM (ELRKAM) than PwC, while KPMG and BDO report fewer account-level-risk KAM (ALRKAM) than PwC. In general, auditors of companies that pay higher audit services fees present more ELRKAM and fewer ALRKAM. Our findings also show that client characteristics are relevant to the number and type of KAM included in the audit report. Our results show that auditor and client characteristics are determinants of the number of KAM disclosed and, moreover, determine the type of KAM disclosed in the audit reports.     

The impact of the UK's Modern Slavery Act (2015) on the disclosure of FTSE 100 companies

This paper explores the impact of the UK's Modern Slavery Act (2015) on the disclosure of the FTSE100 companies. It conducts a content analysis of modern slavery disclosures in the modern slavery statements, annual reports, and sustainability reports from 2013 to 2019. By utilising the framework by the Business & Human Rights Resource Centre, Practical Guidance by the Home Office and the Global Reporting Initiative, we assess the extent and quality of modern slavery disclosures. Our analysis reveals a high level of compliance to the Act's minimum disclosure requirements. We also note an increase in the extent and quality of disclosures following the introduction of the Act, although quality remains low throughout the period as symbolic disclosure is predominantly in evidence. Drawing on normativity theory we identify intrinsic and contextual conditions for norm development. We find that while the presence of intrinsic conditions has positively contributed to the extent and quality of some disclosure themes, the lack of controllability and communication with suppliers has undermined related disclosure provision and constitutes a major hurdle for improving accountability in supply chains.