对财政专户问题的研究:以国库为视角

本文从财政专户的产生及其演变过程出发,当前财政专户存在着数量大、种类多、沉淀资金量可观等几大特点,提出当前财政专户存在着开设必要性不足、同一资金性质多头开户、影响货币政策执行效果及财政资金风险加大四大问题,进而在原因剖析的基础上针对性地从制度制定层面、监管执行层面、国库服务能力提升方面及地方国库现金管理试点方面提出了相关对策及建议,以供参考.     

The α-stable processes and their relationship with the exponent of self-similarity: Exchange rates of USA Dollar,Canadian Dollar,Euro and Yen

This research work analyzes the yields of the exchange rate parities of the American dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, and Yen; estimates the basic statistics and the α-stables; carries out the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Lilliefors goodness of fit tests; estimates the self-similar exponents and carries out the t and F tests, ruling out that the series of parities are multifractal. It also estimates the confidence intervals of the exchange rate parities and concludes that the estimated α-stable distributions are more efficient than the Gaussian distribution to quantify the risks of the market, and that the series are self-similar. Through the ? index, we can infer the risk of the events, indicating that the parities are anti-persistent and thus have short-term memory, mean reversion, and a negative correlation with the high risk in the short and medium term. The estimation and validation of the α-stable distributions and the self-similar exponent are important in the evaluation and creation of innovative investment instruments through financial engineering, risk administration, and the evaluation of derived products.     

Financial fragility,sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs

We show that with intertwined weak banks and weak sovereigns, bank recapitalizations become much less effective. We construct a DSGE model with leverage constrained banks lending to firms and holding domestic government bonds. Bond prices reflect endogenously generated sovereign risk. This introduces a negative amplification cycle: after a credit crisis output losses increase more because higher interest rates trigger lower bond prices and subsequent losses at banks. This further tightens bank leverage constraints, and causes interest rates to rise further. Also bank recapitalizations are then much less effective. Recaps involve swaps of newly issued sovereign bonds for bank equity, the new debt increases sovereign debt discounts, leading to capital losses for the banks on their holdings of sovereign debt that (partially) offset the impact of the recapitalization. The favorable macroeconomic effects of bank recaps on the recovery after a financial crisis are correspondingly lower.     

Financial liberalization and bank risk-taking: International evidence

This paper analyzes the channels through which financial liberalization affects bank risk-taking in an international sample of 4333 banks in 83 countries. Our results indicate that financial liberalization increases bank risk-taking in both developed and developing countries but through different channels. Financial liberalization promotes stronger bank competition that increases risk-taking incentives in developed countries, whereas in developing countries it increases bank risk by expanding opportunities to take risk. Capital requirements help reduce the negative impact of financial liberalization on financial stability in both developed and developing countries. However, official supervision and financial transparency are only effective in developing countries.     

The legal theory of finance and the financial instability hypothesis: Convergences and possible integration

This article presents the legal theory of finance (LTF) and compares it with the financial instability hypothesis (FIH), identifying points of convergence and divergence. The study aims to contribute to the literature by connecting these theories and provides the following main conclusions. First, the LTF incorporates aspects of the FIH, as the theories share several key elements, particularly the presence of fundamental uncertainty, the constraint of liquidity, and the necessity for governments to act as lenders of last resort. Second, the liquidity concept used in the LTF can be better comprehended with the use of Keynesian and post Keynesian literature on the topic. Third, the LTF aims to advance and update certain aspects of Minsky’s theory, particularly with regard to the globalization of markets, power relations, and the interdependencies of the political economy of finance. The study concludes that the theories are more complementary than divergent and future studies should create an analytical framework that integrates the theories’ most insightful aspects.     

Deposit insurance around the world: A comprehensive analysis and database

This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. We extend our earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of government guarantees on banks’ assets and liabilities, including during the recent global financial crisis. We also create a Safety Net Index capturing the generosity of the deposit insurance scheme and government guarantees on banks’ balance sheets. The data show that deposit insurance has become more widespread and more extensive in coverage since the global financial crisis, which also triggered a temporary increase in the government protection of non-deposit liabilities and bank assets. In most cases, these guarantees have since been formally removed but coverage of deposit insurance remains above pre-crisis levels, raising concerns about implicit coverage and moral hazard going forward.     

Financial openness and Chinese regional growth imbalance: New insight from spatial spillovers

This paper uses spatial panel methods and Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2017 to study the spatial spillovers of financial openness on economic growth. The results show, first, a positive direct effect and an overall negative spatial spillover of financial openness on provincial growth. Second, there are two spatial spillover channels: a positive growth externality and a harmful resource competition among provinces. Third, we estimate the state dependence and dynamics of spatial spillover, and find that the negative spatial spillover is smaller in provinces with high levels of financial openness and in the long term; thus, the negative spatial spillover declined over time. These results are robust to the choice of SDM and GNS spatial econometrics methods and under different spatial weight matrices.     

Is exchange rate risk priced in microfinance?

High microcredit interest rates have often been a source of criticism against the microfinance movement. Research has focused attention on the cost structure of interest rates and more recently on the macroeconomic and macro-institutional factors. While cost structure is probably the most important determinant of interest rates, other factors can also matter. This paper uses an innovative measure of foreign exchange risk to explore its impact on microcredit interest rates. We show that microfinance institutions that operate in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes tend to charge lower interest rates than those operating in countries with floating exchange rate regimes.     

Bank competition,concentration and financial stability in the Turkish banking industry

This paper analyzes the impact of competition and concentration on bank stability in the Turkish banking industry over the period 2002–2012. The Boone indicator and the efficiency-adjusted Lerner index are used as proxies for competition, while the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio and Z-scores are used as proxies for bank stability. The main results indicate that competition is negatively related to the NPL ratio but positively related to the Z-score. The results further indicate that greater concentration has a positive impact on the NPL and a negative impact on the Z-score. We also use a quadratic term of the competition measures to capture a possible non-linear relationship between competition and stability. The results show that the coefficient of the quadratic term is negative for the NPL model and positive for the Z-score model. Overall, our findings provide support for the competition-fragility view.