中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性研究

文章基于中国上市银行1998-2013年的数据,采用固定效应模型,对16家中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性进行了研究。研究表明,中国上市银行的信贷行为表现为阶段顺周期性和阶段逆周期性;银行规模对其周期性也有较大影响,规模较小银行或同一银行在规模较小阶段其信贷的逆周期性更显著。由于当前我国政府对宏观经济及银行行为的干预程度较大,银行监管当局所制定监管政策的针对性及有效性将受到很大削弱,因此文章建议政府的宏观经济调控政策与银行的监管政策必须相互协调,这是未来防范经济危机与金融危机,促进中国经济健康持续发展,保持中国金融系统稳健经营的必然选择。     

群态融资机理与路径演绎——基于博弈分析的中小企业融资决策与理性突围

群态融资亦称供应链融资,是商业银行基于供应链管理的需要而进行的业务创新.本文针对供应链上的核心企业与核心环节,探讨金融供应链得以持续稳定的行为决策机制.基于非对称信息条件下信用模式的博弈分析和信息增益修正均衡的讨论,得出了企业面向不同决策的收益模式,据此分析了市场失灵、中小企业融资难和金融供应链的创新性与市场前景.应当加强企业、金融机构和政府的配合互动,保持供应链信息渠道传递畅通.     

Does ethics improve stock market resilience in times of instability?

This paper compares the resilience of ethical (Islamic and socially responsible) indexes among five developed (US, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia) and three emerging markets (Brazil, India, South Africa) during the period following the 2008 subprime crisis. It relies on a multivariate CAPM-EGARCH model that accounts for sudden changes in volatility through the application of an iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm on daily data over the sample period 2008–2014 to model time-varying volatility and ensure reliable estimates. The study confirms the lower systemic risk associated with Islamic indexes during the bearish period and reports that SRI, despite being more subject to systemic risk, offered higher alphas in highly integrated markets, while Islamic indexes performed better in less integrated ones. The evidence also reveals a very limited increase in the models’ predictability power from the integration of sudden changes in volatility into the EGARCH models during the full sample period. This limit is more marked during the bearish sub-period. Our findings have important implications for international investment and portfolio diversification perspectives in times of financial downturn.     

Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic

This work develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over a short horizon of six quarters and a long horizon of 12 quarters on a panel of 14 countries, both advanced and developing. First, we build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Second, early warning indicators for the assessment and prediction of systemic risk are selected in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator by a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful indicators. Finally, we observe the performance of the constructed EWS over both horizons on the Czech data and find that the model over the long horizon outperforms the EWS over the short horizon. For both horizons, out-of-sample probability estimates do not deviate substantially from their in-sample estimates, indicating a good out-of-sample performance for the Czech Republic.     

在当前经济形势下扩大内需与旅游业发展

2008年,以美国次贷问题引起的金融风暴席卷全球,国际经济环境中不确定不稳定因素明显增多,全球经济面临危机,各类人群消费信心逐日下探,需求方面出现严重不足,导致供给出现剩余,旅游业也未幸免。为了促进我国经济稳定快速发展,扩大内需成为当务之急,旅游业发展有助于扩大内需,同时,旅游业自身的发展,也要依靠扩大内需。     

保本型股票挂钩结构性外汇理财产品定价研究

内容本文首先针对单资产股票挂钩保本型结构性产品的期权特性,在一定的假设前提下,根据风险中性定价原理,借鉴Black-Scholes期权定价方法,对受汇率波动影响的外汇理财产品进行定价研究,并得出定价公式,然后运用中国民生银行非凡理财第四期的两年期产品为案例进行定价分析,结果表明该产品收益率设计是合理的。     

Inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring the interaction between ICT diffusion,and financial development

Despite the momentous rise in ICT diffusion, and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), their plausible joint effect on inclusive growth have not been explored, leaving a lacuna in the literature. This study, therefore, examines the direct and indirect effects of ICT diffusion on inclusive growth in 42 SSA countries over the period 1980–2019. We provide evidence robust to several specifications from the dynamic system GMM to show that: (i) ICT skills, access and usage induce inclusive growth in SSA, and (ii) the effects of ICT skills, access and usage are enhanced in the presence of financial development. These findings remain the same when we focussed on financial institution access. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the region's green growth agenda and striving efforts at improving socioeconomic development.     

我国金融发展促进FDI的出口增长效应实证研究

运用我国1991至2010年商品出口额、金融发展和FDI相关的时间序列数据,考察我国金融发展对FDI的出口增长效应的促进作用。实证结果表明：我国金融市场规模的扩大未能促进FDI的出口增长效应,而金融市场效率的提高能促进企业对FDI技术溢出的吸收能力,进而促进出口的增长。建议我国加快提高金融市场的效率,努力发挥政策性金融支持出口的作用。     

美国金融监管改革的新框架与新趋势

针对金融危机中暴露的监管缺陷,美国正在进行"大萧条"以来最为全面的金融监管改革.本文在宏观和微观审慎监管相结合的框架下介绍了美国金融监管改革的主要内容,分析了围绕改革的主要争论,并对国际金融监管改革趋势进行总结比较,认为美国这次金融监管改革将从监管标准、方法、模式和理念等方面重构美国金融监管体系,有利于形成更加稳定有序的金融市场新秩序,防范金融危机重演.     

Financial integration and the price of world covariance risk: Large- vs. small-cap stocks

We investigate whether recent country-level evidence of global pricing is particular to large-cap stocks. Specifically, we examine cross-country return correlations and conduct asset pricing tests on three size-based stock portfolios for nine developed countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We find that large-cap stocks realize significant comovements across countries, whereas small-cap stocks realize smaller average correlations (relative to both large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks across countries). More important, asset pricing tests suggest that while large-cap stocks are priced globally, global pricing is rejected for most small-cap stocks. Finally, the evidence indicates that financial integration deepened in recent years primarily for large-cap stocks. Overall, the results suggest that the global pricing pertains chiefly to large-cap stocks.