The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum

We study the behaviours of the Betfair betting market and the sterling/dollar exchange rate (futures price) during 24 June 2016, the night of the EU referendum. We investigate how the two markets responded to the announcement of the voting results by employing a Bayesian updating methodology to update prior opinion about the likelihood of the final outcome of the vote. We then relate the voting model to the real-time evolution of the market-determined prices as the results were announced. We find that, although both markets appear to be inefficient in absorbing the new information contained in the vote outcomes, the betting market seems less inefficient than the FX market. The different rates of convergence to the fundamental value between the two markets lead to highly profitable arbitrage opportunities.     

从资产负债率看上市公司理财状况

资产负债率指标被所有者、经营者、政府、债权人等多方所嘱目。上市公司资产负债率情况如何,与企业盈亏之间有无必然联系,有无人为操纵行为。上市公司驾驭负债的水平如何,会不会严重影响上市公司、银行乃至国家的发展前途。本文试图对以上问题作出分析,以期对读者进行财务分析和经济分析有所帮助。     

The risk in using financial reports in the study of airline business models

A review of published articles has shown that many researchers use financial reports as the main source of information in regard to airline business models. A study of accounting policies and other external information, however, has highlighted the differences in assumptions as to useful lives and the residual values of aircraft, which are the principal assets of airlines. While the considerable, unexplained differences in the accounting policies of enterprises with similar business models indicate there may be risk in using this data, the risk can be eliminated by making appropriate adjustments in the financial statements.     

A Generalized Nash Equilibrium network model for post-disaster humanitarian relief

We develop a Generalized Nash Equilibrium network model for post-disaster humanitarian relief by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). NGOs derive utility from providing relief supplies to victims of the disaster at demand points in a supply chain context while competing with each other for financial funds provided by donations. The shared constraints consist of lower and upper bounds for demand for relief items at the demand points to reduce materiel convergence or congestion. This game theory problem is reformulated as an optimization problem and numerical examples and a theoretical case study on Hurricane Katrina given.     

Airport ownership and financial performance: Evidence from Italy

In the past few decades many countries have increased the presence of various forms of private sector involvement in airport ownership and management. This paper focuses on the financial performance of Italian airport companies. We present empirical evidence separately for two groups where public or private management majority prevails. The main findings indicate that companies with a private majority outperform the others in terms of financial indicators that are related to operating income.     

Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.     

产业间平台合作下的双边定价机制研究——基于对固有收益影响的分析

本文以近期日益增多的产业间平台企业合作为背景,针对合作后平台用户固有收益水平提高这一特征,构建了双寡头竞争模型,以此分析合作对平台定价的影响。研究发现,随着合作平台上用户固有收益水平的提高,该平台将提高产生较弱网络外部性的一边用户的定价,而对另一边用户的定价则必须视平台双边用户交叉网络外部性大小差异而定。不仅如此,合作还增加了该平台上双边用户定价的非对称程度。对与之竞争的非合作平台而言,双边用户的定价则恰恰相反。研究还表明,合作可能提高合作平台的利润水平,增加消费者总剩余和社会总福利。这启示规制机构在对双边平台合作进行规制时要特别谨慎,切忌过度干预。     

A new wavelet-based ultra-high-frequency analysis of triangular currency arbitrage

We develop a new framework to characterize the dynamics of triangular (three-point) arbitrage in electronic foreign exchange markets. To examine the properties of arbitrage, we propose a wavelet-based regression approach that is robust to estimation errors, measurement bias and persistence. Relying on this wavelet-based (denoising) inference, we consider various liquidity and market risk indicators to predict arbitrage in a unique ultra-high-frequency exchange rate data set. We find strong empirical evidence that limit order book, realized volatility and cross-correlations help forecast triangular arbitrage profits. The estimates are statistically significant and relevant for investors such that on average 80−100 arbitrage opportunities exist with a short duration (100−500 ms) on a daily basis. Our analysis also reveals that triangular arbitrage opportunities are counter-cyclical at ultra-high-frequency levels: arbitrage returns tend to increase (decrease) in periods when volatility risk and correlations are relatively low (high). We show that liquidity-driven microstructure measures, however, appear to be more powerful in exploiting arbitrage profits when compared to market-driven factors.     

It makes me feel vulnerable! The impact of public self-disclosure on online complaint behavior

Genuine reviews are essential for financial performance and for customer trust. In the case of a negative experience, withholding negative reviews may lead to biased online information. This paper aims to investigate two factors that may prompt customers to withhold their complaints (i.e., identity disclosure and locus of control). The study adopts a sequential exploratory mixed-method approach. An exploratory interview phase compares public vs anonymous online environments, and explores the reasons why dissatisfied customers might decide not to complain. An experiment then shows that vulnerability is a key mechanism preventing negative reviews. This effect is exaggerated when customers perceive that they do not have control over the events happening in their lives (i.e., external locus of control). Our work uncovers an important determinant of online complaint behavior, vulnerability. It also offers practical suggestions, such as improving confidentiality, to increase a customer's willingness to complain following a negative experience.     

盘活存量资产,用活现有资金--试论如何加强以资金管理为中心的财务管理

在市场经济条件下,任何企业都要在市场中参与激烈的竞争,其动力就是追逐经济效益,实现利润最大化。资金管理是企业经营管理的重点和关键,只有充分发挥资金管理对企业内部检查和外部监督的职能,才能让企业取得更大的经济效益。本文针对如何加强企业资金管理进行讨论,其目的在于充分认识资金管理对经济工作的重要意义。