“省直管县”改革会损害地级市的利益吗?

我国多个地区正在探索"省直管县"体制改革,目前的最大顾虑是改革是否会损害地级市的利益?本文利用1999—2008年我国地级市数据,通过系统GMM估计对此进行了实证研究。结果发现:"强县扩权"提高了城市财政收入,抑制了城市财政支出增长;财政"省直管县"的作用则恰好相反。"强县扩权"促进了城市经济增长,但不利于城市第三产业的发展;财政"省直管县"虽然降低了城市经济增长速度,却提高了第三产业比重。两项改革措施都抑制了城市规模的扩大,但有利于改善城市的环境质量。因此,我们不能笼统地断定"省直管县"改革一定会有损地级市的利益、阻碍城市化的进程,应深入地研究各项改革措施的利弊得失,做到综合运用、扬长避短。     

中国城市政府公共支出效率分析——基于四阶段DEA方法的实证研究

本文以2008年中国内地126个地级以上城市为样本数据,利用四阶段DEA方法,对中国城市公共支出效率进行了实证分析。结果显示:如果不对外部环境因素加以控制,则经典的DEA方法将会高估城市公共支出效率;在控制外部环境因素影响后,样本城市公共支出效率得分为0.353,表明在保持支出不变下,通过改善组织管理、优化支出规模及结构,公共服务供给水平可提高约64%,城市公共支出效率还有很大的提升空间;经济发达、较大的辖区面积是城市公共支出效率提升的有利条件,而人口增加对公共品供给产生的拥挤效应不利于城市公共支出效率提升。     

Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter- and intra-temporal—and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary–fiscal policy combinations.     

Inflation and the fiscal limit

We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a “fiscal limit”. The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal spending or monetary policy must occur to stabilize debt. We give households a joint probability distribution over the various policy adjustments that may occur, as well as over the timing of when the fiscal limit is hit. One policy option that stabilizes debt is a passive monetary policy, which generates a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply dire inflationary scenarios. Avoiding these scenarios, however, requires the fiscal authority to renege on some share of future promised transfers.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-war U.S.

A New Keynesian model allowing for an active monetary and passive fiscal policy (AMPF) regime and a passive monetary and active fiscal policy (PMAF) regime is estimated to fit various U.S. samples from 1955 to 2007. The results show that data in the pre-Volcker periods strongly prefer an AMPF regime, even with a prior centered in the PMAF region. The estimation, however, is not very informative about whether the Federal Reserve's reaction to inflation is greater than one in the pre-Volcker period, because much lower values can still preserve determinacy under passive fiscal policy. In addition, whether a PMAF regime can generate consumption growth following a government spending increase depends on the degree of price stickiness. An income tax cut can yield an unusual negative labor response if monetary policy aggressively stabilizes output growth.     

财政分权对地方公共支出结构的影响及对策研究

中国财政分权的实施为我国的现代化建设做出了巨大贡献,但同时许多问题也渐渐暴露。本文着眼于现阶段地方公共支出中所存在的问题和弊端,分析财政分权对其影响过程中的突出问题,提出重视民生建设合理的调整财政支出比例、全面的官员考核制度、中央与地方政府间的合理分权等相应对策,以使地方公共支出结构更为合理、有效。     

收入不平等、政策偏向与最优财政再分配政策

本文构建的理论模型探讨了收入不平等、政策偏向与最优财政再分配之间的关系。模型显示:政策偏向是收入不平等与财政再分配恶性循环的决定因素。当政策偏向于穷人时,最优财政再分配系统的选择是提高税率,扩大对穷人的转移支付;当政策偏向于富人时,最优财政再分配系统的选择是降低税率,减少对穷人的转移支付。依据中国数据的实证研究发现:(1)中国收入不平等不断恶化,针对恶化的不平等而采取的财政再分配政策效果差,没能扭转不平等恶化趋势,政策偏向严重。(2)税收再分配政策偏向富人,使富人税负相对轻于穷人,居民收入不平等加剧;偏向于穷人的转移支付多为消费券(物),导致越扶越贫。为此,需要从调整所得税和转移支付政策等方面采取相关对策。     

省以下财政体制改革的深化与政策着力点

财政改革向着省以下财政体制和基层财政领域逐步延伸,是我国财政发展的自然逻辑。在这一进程中,需要我们进一步厘清优化地方财政体制所亟待解决的关键问题和政策着力点。在剖析我国近年来地方财政体制改革措施的基础上,本文认为,应从各地间差异较大的财政省管县实施办法中提炼出“优势特色”,以县级财政为重点整合地方财政级次,构建与县级基层政府责任相匹配的基本财力长效保障机制,同时不削弱市级和乡镇财政的特有功能,建立辖区内和跨辖区的地方财政转移支付体系,提高省以下财政体制的整体运行效率。     

促进珠三角地区产业省内转移的政策建议

珠三角地区的产业转移势在必行,财政作为宏观调控的重要手段,在珠三角的产业转移中发挥着重要的作用。因此,应该结合当地的实际,制定合理的财政政策、产业政策,以促进珠三角地区的产业转移顺利进行。     

政策时滞与战略超越——评日本经济危机对策

非干预主义者一般抓住政策的时滞问题以否认斟酌处置的财政政策的有效性。日本政府通过把经济危机对策与产业结构调整战略的有机结合,弱化了斟酌处置财政政策的时滞问题对政策效果造成的负面影响,推动了产业结构的调整,为提升日本在下一轮经济增长中的国家竞争力做了准备。