Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

航材保障中第三方物流企业的选择研究

应用层次分析方法的思想,从航材保障对第三方物流的要求制定了科学的评价指标体系。结合指标体系利用模糊评价方法,构建了对第三方物流企业的选择模型,对航材保障中的第三方物流企业做出基本的评价,提供了科学的选择方案。     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

基于协整分析的东北区域产业结构优化与金融支持关系研究

基于1978—2003年的统计数据,采用协整关系检验法和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法对东北地区金融发展与产业结构优化之间的关系进行了实证检验。分析结果表明东北区域产业结构优化与金融发展之间存在长期动态均衡关系及单向因果关系,即金融发展对东北区域产业结构优化具有支持作用,从而为政府经济决策提供了政策依据。     

The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to U.S. Food Demand

A new demand system is introduced, the Nested PIGLOG model, nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new. This new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of U.S. food demand that include food-at-home (FAH), food-away-from-home (FAFH), and alcoholic beverages. Although nested tests and out-of-sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree, statistically insignificant improvements to in-sample-fit and even poorer out-of-sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations. Based on a subset of preferred models, FAFH is found to be price and income elastic compared to FAH which is price and income inelastic.     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Operational Research and the environment

The discipline of Operational Research (OR) is primarily concerned with improving the effectiveness and efficiency of decision processes. These processes take place everywhere in society: industry, banking, agriculture, government, politics. Frequent use of mathematical optimization models is typical of OR. Since the early '80s these models are increasingly packaged in a user-friendly way, as Decision Support Systems. In the following we will illustrate how OR can be used to describe and solve a number of environmental problems.     

基于合作关系的供应链信息共享模式研究

首先研究了供应链上下游合作伙伴间信息共享博弈情况，并分析了影响信息共享的障碍因素。然后，从合作伙伴合作关系的视角探讨了供成链中合作伙伴的类型及合作目的，最后以此为基础构建出供应链合作伙伴的信息共事模式及技术支撑体系。     

适应新军事变革,大力发展通用弹药的集合包装

论文从新军事变革对弹药供应保障需求出发，系统阐述了集合包装对弹药供应保障的积极作用，详细介绍了先进实用的各种集装方法．最后提出了要大力发展具有我军特色的弹药集合包装的具体建议。     

析环境审计对ISO14000的借鉴

ISO14000环境系列标准和环境审计的关系如何，尤其是环境审计中如何借鉴ISO14000的问题，尽管受到广泛关注但始终未得到认真的研究和解决。本文以近年来对该问题研究的结果为背景，对环境审核与环境绩效审计之间的关系进行辨析，在此基础上提出环境审计应该从评价标准和最佳实务支持两方面对ISO14000进行借鉴。