Nonlinear analysis for forecasting currencies: are they useful to the portfolio manager?

The importance of a time-varying specification for both the return and the risk of financial assets is well known. The purpose of this study is to investigate if some of the most recently developed econometric models, combined with technical indicators often used by practitioners, can significantly predict future returns. While most studies have focused on either univariate series or in-sample analyses of a given econometric specification, this study considers a multivariate framework where a US based investor daily reallocates a portfolio of three currencies (Deutschmark, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen). Series of three years out-of-sample forecasts are analysed in terms of risk and return and it is shown that some of the tested speciications can indeed signiicantly predict future daily returns and correlations over this three-year period.     

Planning Reform and Housing Costs: Why The Coalition Failed and What it Means

Housing costs in the UK have exploded in recent decades. Contrary to what is often claimed, this has nothing to do with population density, demographics or a lack of public housing. A review of the empirical literature shows that the key determinant of housing costs is the severity of planning restrictions. Faced with a well‐organised NIMBY opposition, the coalition failed in its attempt to make the planning system more development‐friendly. This is not surprising, because the current system provides incentives which make NIMBYism a rational option. The coalition ought to address these incentives rather than trying to sidestep them.     

德国碳排放权交易管理架构与职能*

德国是欧盟碳交易体系中最为重要的成员国，德国对欧盟碳交易体系的实践，对我国碳交易体系的建设和管理具有借鉴意义。本文综述德国对碳交易体系的管理与执行组织架构，以及欧盟碳交易体系在德国前两个阶段的执行情况，为我国碳交易体系的建立提供参考。     

金融科技与银行价值链的重塑

金融科技在显著提升银行服务水平和经营效率的同时,也对银行业的竞争环境产生了深刻影响,商业银行在服务场景和渠道、客户信息以及资金等方面的传统竞争优势受到挑战.为快速获取必要的金融科技能力,银行加速推进数字化转型,并在其价值链的多个环节与科技企业开展合作.银行价值链由封闭的自我循环模式转向开放的合作模式,且价值链中的高附加值活动存在向少数企业集中的趋势.银行业的风险特征也由此发生重要变化:传统的战略风险、信用风险、流动性风险、操作风险、法律风险与系统性风险依然存在且变得更加复杂;科技风险、网络风险与数据安全等问题日渐凸显.作为应对,我国应结合银行业的实际情况,对现有银行监管框架和模式进行再评估,督促指导银行在推进数字化转型的过程中密切关注相关风险,进一步加强监管能力建设,以更好地守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线.     

构建国库会计分析框架模式研究

国库作为人民银行的重要职能部门,在经理国库、协调财政政策与货币政策的配合方面有着重要作用,本篇通过对国库会计数据整理及研究,运用数学统计和比较方法,结合财政与货币政策执行的重点信息,以建立国库会计分析框架体系为主导思想,力求通过国库会计分析准确全面地描述国库资金运行特点及变化,从国库税收和支出规模角度反映社会经济运行水平,预测及反馈财政政策的实施效果及对社会经济的影响。     

通用权限管理系统的设计与实现

随着计算机技术、网络技术的日新月异,软件的开发周期要求越来越短,针对不同角色权限分配也愈来愈重要,本文将论述目前网站和平台在进行项目开发必不可少的通用权限管理模块的具体实现,将其整合到其它项目中,将大大提高开发效率、节约开发成本,在项目开发中能显著体现其优越性、高效性、可扩展性.     

Innovation and public procurement: Terminology,concepts, and applications

The growing awareness of public procurement as an innovation policy tool has recently sparked the interest of both policy makers and researchers. While an increasing number of studies is being published every year, an overview of the field is missing. Researchers, practitioners, and policy makers are often using ambiguous wording and have not yet reached consensus on the terminology and concepts involved. This state of affairs leads to research fragmentation and lack of knowledge convergence. For the purpose of contributing to knowledge synthesis and consolidation, this article provides a structured review of the literature on innovation in public procurement. From categorizing publications based on innovation drivers, concepts, and research approaches, the emerging structure of the field is described and synthesized into a framework of innovation in public procurement. The proposed framework differentiates between literature streams on (1) innovations in the public procurement process, (2) innovation of public services by means of procurement, and (3) the use of public procurement as a tool for demand-side innovation policy-making. For each of these streams of literature, different focus areas as well as research gaps and opportunities for future research are identified. Based on analysis of existing research, the proposed framework provides an overview of state-of-the-art knowledge, a unified terminology, and a holistic understanding of innovation in public procurement. The framework is both a point of departure for future research and a source of knowledge for practitioners.     

Understanding machine learning-based forecasting methods: A decomposition framework and research opportunities

Machine learning (ML) methods are gaining popularity in the forecasting field, as they have shown strong empirical performance in the recent M4 and M5 competitions, as well as in several Kaggle competitions. However, understanding why and how these methods work well for forecasting is still at a very early stage, partly due to their complexity. In this paper, I present a framework for regression-based ML that provides researchers with a common language and abstraction to aid in their study. To demonstrate the utility of the framework, I show how it can be used to map and compare ML methods used in the M5 Uncertainty competition. I then describe how the framework can be used together with ablation testing to systematically study their performance. Lastly, I use the framework to provide an overview of the solution space in regression-based ML forecasting, identifying areas for further research.     

‘Real without being concrete’: the ontology of public concern and its significance for the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF)

Abstract

Public concern is a pivotal notion in the risk perception, communication and management literature. It is, for example, a central concept with regard to the social amplification of risk, and as a justification for policy attention. Despite its ubiquity, the notion of public concern remains a ‘black box’ presenting a poorly understood state of affairs as a reified matter-of-fact. Paying attention to the deployment and metrics of public concern, and the work it is required to do, will enhance the power of approaches to understanding risk, and policymaking. Thus, the broad purpose of this paper is to unpack the notion of public concern by adopting an ontological yet critical perspective, drawing on a range of literature that considers ontology. We reflect on how publics and public concern have been conceptualised with regard to the dichotomies of individual/social and private/public, given that they imply different levels and dimensions of concern. We draw on empirical work that illuminates the assessment and measurement of public concern and how the public have responded to risk events. Considering public concern through an ontological lens affords a means of drawing renewed critical attention to objects that might otherwise appear finished or ready-made.