Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

高技术企业业绩评价指标体系的五维度框架设计

业绩评价已成为政府、市场和企业普遍关注的现实问题，指标体系是业绩评价的基础，指标体系构建的好坏直接影响到业绩评价的效果。高技术企业业绩的评价应结合高技术企业的特点，构建财务、产品与技术创新、智力资本开发、价值链流程、可持续发展五个维度的评价指标体系。     

低负荷维氏硬度法的负荷选择

本文按照维氏硬度测定的技术条件,将基本公式H_v=1854P/D~2加以变换,从而得到一些较为简单的数学关系式.利用这些关系式,可以对不同金属薄带材料,很容易计算出较合理的负荷大小,既能保证不被"打穿",也使视场内有一个适合观测的压痕图象.     

CCM在公路工程项目进度管理中的实证分析

本文论述了CCM技术以及项目进度延迟的原因。并采用基于TOC的CCM技术,对公路工程 项目进度管理进行了实证分析。通过分析结果与传统方法的比较,论证CCM技术在公路工程项目进度管 理中的实用价值。     

CEV模型的单位根检验研究

CEV模型（Constant Elasticity of Variance Model）作为常用的利率模型，在实证分析中得到了广泛运用，但是其单位根检验一直被忽略或者被默认可以使用迪基一富勒检验。本文首次运用Box—Cox变换的技巧，针对CEV模型的单位根检验问题，找到了合适的统计量并且证明其渐进分布存在，然后通过蒙特卡罗方法求出了该统计量的分布表。得到了在大样本的情形下可以沿用迪基一富勒检验，但在小样本的情形下与迪基一富勒检验有所偏差的结论。     

[火用]经济学思想在供应链管理中的应用

在[火用]经济学分析的基础上,综合考虑环境因素对供应链系统的影响,引入了环境负效应因子的概念,并运用系统科学的广义子系统理论,对供应链系统中的各股[火用]流进行分析,建立了供应链广义子系统[火用]经济学模型.     

Why I am a Psychology Major: An Empirical Analysis of Student Motivations

The underlying “architecture of the decision to pursue a degree in psychology was quantified using the Method of Sorting technique to identifying the critical issues necessary to make this choice. Multidimentsional scaling procedures were employed to construct a three-dimensional map representing the relationships between reasons for selecting psychology as a major. Freshman and senior psychology majors (N = 165) from a regional university and a large research-based institution rated the relative importance of items in their decision-making process. Hierarchical clustering procedures revealed seven different groups of students. Although significant differences associated with class standing were not found, institutional affiliation did influence cluster composition. Reflecting local emphases, students at the regional institution had a greater interest in Counseling Psychology, whereas those at the research-based school focused on Clinical Psychology. This semantic map and the associated item clusters arising from psychology student data provides an empirical basis for, amongst other things, course selection, faculty-initiated program design or revision, strategic niche marketing, and student retention.     

Nash-equilibria in a heterogeneous oligopoly with fuzzy information

We consider a model of an oligopolistic market with heterogeneous firms and products where neither the cost nor the demand functions are common knowledge. Instead, each firm only has some vague ideas about the price strategies adopted by its competitors which is modelled by a fuzzy set. In analogy to the notion of an "equilibrium of actions and beliefs" we define and characterize a generalized Nash-equilibrium and show its existence under general conditions. Furthermore, the impact of the fuzzy information on the equilibrium outcome is analyzed by means of a comparative static analysis within a particular model framework.Received: 28 May 2002, Accepted: 25 December 2002, JEL Classification: D43, D80, L13We wish to thank Bernhard F. Arnold, the editor Murat Sertel , and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, we are responsible for all remaining errors.     

中小企业供应链合作伙伴选择研究

根据中小企业的特点,提出中小企业在选择供应链合作伙伴时,首先需要选择目标产业,然后在目标产业中选择具体企业作为供应链合作伙伴。分别采用了模糊评价法和层次分析法评价目标产业和选择合作伙伴。     

CPA审计质量评价体系研究

随着以“安然”、“世通”为代表的国内外一系列的财务造假舞弊案的曝光,CPA的审计质量也成为社会各界关注的焦点,人们对CPA的审计质量、甚至CPA行业的信誉和存在的必要都提出了质疑。本文对社会关注的焦点——CPA审计质量进行研究,运用规范研究的方法,对影响我国CPA审计质量的诸因素进行分析,从被审计单位、事务所、CPA、审计收费、审计过程等方面展开分析,并构建了针对CPA审计质量进行评价和衡量的体系,以量化的方式来反映审计质量,并就这一提出了自己的观点和看法。