多重目标决策在企业管理中的应用

本文通过对多重目标综合决策的方法改进,对几家企业的经营管理进行评估.结果表明,这种方法能使评判结果更客观地、合理地、正确地反映事实的本来面目.     

基于DFNN的金融股指预测及金融非线性系统辨识研究

针对证券市场内部结构的复杂性、外部因素的多变性,本文采用动态模糊神经网络（DFNN）进行金融股指预测。DFNN能够实现在线学习,并且参数估计与结构辨识同时进行;同时采用误差下降率（ERR）修剪技术,保证网络拓扑结构不会持续增长,避免了过拟合及过训练现象,确保了DFNN的泛化能力。本文以上证指数为例．通过与同样以高斯函数作为传递函数的RBF算法预测结果的比较和分析．表明DFNN预测上证指数的偏差较小,预测的方向准确性较高。通过DFNN模型提取的模糊规则对金融系统运行模式进行分析．为研究金融非线性系统辨识提供了启发性思路。     

Dynamic supply chain modeling using a new fuzzy hybrid negotiation mechanism

The key part of dynamic supply chain management is negotiating with suppliers and with buyers. Coordination is essential for successful supply chain management. In order to model coordination among suppliers and buyers in a dynamic supply chain, this paper takes a step further and proposes a new fuzzy- logic-based hybrid negotiation mechanism. In most real-world negotiation situations, agents have a common interest to cooperate, but have conflicting interests over exactly how to cooperate. These situations involve restrictions and preferences that may be vaguely and partly defined. Therefore, this study takes the advantage of fuzzy logic and develops a hybrid negotiation-based mechanism, that combines both cooperative and competitive negotiations. Achieving effective coordination in a multi-agent system is non-trivial as no agent possesses the global view of the problem space. Moreover, the different strategies adopted by agents may produce conflicts. While agents coordinate with each other in the operations, they will negotiate about their strategies to reduce conflicts. The proposed fuzzy hybrid negotiation mechanism allows negotiation agents more flexibility and robustness in an automated negotiation system. The proposed mechanism not only helps sellers and buyers to explore various new choices and opportunities that the e-markets offer but also allows them to identify and analyze their resource constraints in a given schedule, and helps them to explore and exploit many alternatives for a better solution. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through an illustrative example.     

模糊层次分析法在物流园区选址中的应用

物流园区选址是关系物流网络整体效益的重要环节。考虑到传统的层次分析法在选址应用中的局限性,引入模糊层次分析法。通过分析影响物流园区选址的主要因素,建立了选择方案的评价指标体系,运用模糊层次分析法,得到各影响因素的重要性权重,为具体方案的评价选优提供依据。模糊层次分析法的应用,使物流园区的选址过程高效、合理,具有一定的实用性。     

能源化工企业科技项目后评估研究

科技项目后评估对于能源化工企业科技创新能力及科技管理水平的提升具有十分重要的作用,目前尚缺乏在理论上建立后评估指标及设计后评估方法。在实地调查国内大型能源化工科技管理部门的基础上,设计并发放了调查问卷,借助spss14.0和amos4.0统计分析软件对所收集的数据进行处理,经过筛选与检验构建了能源化工企业后评估指标体系。选用模糊综合评判作为能源化工企业科技项目后评估的方法,并设计了具体的评价步骤,研究结果对企业科技项目管理实践具有一定的理论指导意义。     

基于模糊理论的产品设计DNA分析法研究

从生物学的DNA概念中得到启示,构建了“设计DNA分析法”的研究框架。基于设计形态学和产品语义学的相关理论和方法以及对现有设计DNA理论成果的研究,引出了设计DNA分析法的概念和分析法的六元分子。运用模糊识别法对分子中的元素进行识别,并基于模糊数学理论,采用模糊综合评判法,对所识别的结果进行验证。     

A Fuzzy Logic based Trend Impact Analysis method

All Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) algorithms in literature conduct the analysis based on direct estimates provided by experts for the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as an input to the algorithm. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using Fuzzy Logic. We postulate that in some cases it is better not to estimate the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event directly; but rather estimate it indirectly via its attributes, using Fuzzy Logic. The core idea of the paper is to customize the generic process of reasoning with Fuzzy Logic by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes, especially when they reach certain threshold values.     

深圳旅游目的地营销系统（DMS）绩效评价及对策研究

作为信息时代的产物,旅游目的地营销系统（DM S）已经成为目的地营销的主要手段,其营销绩效直接影响着目的地的整体营销效果,因此,对其进行科学、准确的评价具有重要的现实意义。目前国内外相关研究极少,亟待开创性的探索。尝试建立了适合我国DM S发展现状的绩效评价指标体系,并运用综合评价和模糊数学的相关理论构建了多层次模糊综合评价模型,在此基础上,对深圳旅游目的地营销系统营销绩效进行了定量评价。研究结果表明,影响深圳DM S营销绩效的最直接因素是目的地旅游形象的美誉度,而最敏感因素是目的地旅游收入增长率和接待人次增长率。最后,以评价结果为依据,对深圳DM S的运营给出了系列针对性建议。     

区域基本公共服务均等化水平的评价

以基本公共服务理论为基础.构建了基本公共服务均等化水平的指标体系,然后基于统计年鉴数据,采用熵权-TOPSIS法对全国31省(市)基本公共服务均等化水平进行了评估和比较,最后以统计分析结果为基础将全国划分为三个区域等级,并提出了相关的政策建议.     

基于FUZZY-AHP的高科技品牌延伸决策评价研究

通过对国内高科技品牌延伸实践和国内外品牌延伸评价理论的深入分析,指出高科技品牌延伸决策评价研究的不足。针对品牌延伸评价的复杂性特点,将模糊层次评价的方法应用到高科技品牌延伸决策评价研究中,采用层次分析法确定了评价指标体系中各指标的权重,并以海尔品牌延伸到药业为研究对象,采用模糊评价法对评价模型进行了实证分析。 ?