Dynamic welfare costs of the 1997 Asian crisis

This paper measures and investigates the welfare costs, other effects and recovery process of the 1997 Asian crisis, and evaluates the impact of the policy program supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The main findings are as follows. First, the ratio of ‘whole cost’ to the level of consumption in a hypothetical economy is high: 50% for Indonesia, 39% for Hong Kong, 36% for Korea, 30% for Thailand and 18% for Malaysia. Second, the dynamic process of ‘cost at period t’ quickly converges to 40% immediately after the crisis, though the costs for Indonesia and Hong Kong gradually increase toward 100%. Third, the IMF-supported programs in Thailand, Indonesia and Korea were implemented straight after the peak cost. Finally, the cost of the IMF-supported program was relatively inexpensive compared with the welfare cost of the crisis. The authors would like to thank Kenneth S. Chan, Makoto Saito, Yum K. Kwan, Yong Wang, Eiji Ogawa, Yoshiro Tsutsui, Yuzo Honda, Shinsuke Ikeda, Soyoung Kim, Joshua Aizenman and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and useful suggestions. Earlier versions of this paper were presented in 2003 at Osaka University and Hitotsubashi University, in 2004 at the City University of Hong Kong, Tokyo University and the Western Regional Science Association Conference (Hawaii), Western Economic Association Conference (Vancouver) and East Asian Economic Association Conference (Hong Kong). Funding from a Grant-in-Aid 16530204 from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science, Technology of Japan, the Nomura Foundation for Social Science 2005 and Kanpo Foundation 2002 supported the first-named author’s research.     

浅析小额信贷扶贫GB模式运行机理及其实践功能

文章介绍了小额信贷扶贫GB模式的运行机理,认为GB模式可以弥补扶贫到户小额贷款运行中存在的缺陷,并探讨了GB模式的局限性和在实施中应注意的问题。     

南宁市机动车安全技术检测站的智能远程监控查验系统

根据公安部102号令、国家标准《机动车运行安全技术条件》(GB 7258—2004)第三号修改单及公安部《机动车查验工作规程》(GA 801—2008)要求,南宁市车管所于2011年5月1日对市区内所有的机动车安全技术检测站启用远程查验系统。该系统从根本上改变了对机动车的传统查验模式,进一步规范了警队执法尺度,解放了警力,提高了工作效率,实现了对机动车公平和有效的监管。     

刍议当代中国理论经济学的重建

建立理论经济学必须从现实经济的实践中吸收营养，坚持定性优先、定量为辅的原则，应避免过早完成形式化，模型化的探索；必须具有扎实、深厚的理论及基本体系；必须能够正确揭示经济运行规律、判断经济关系的历史地位，为经济的制度安排提供强有力的思想指导。     

THE DYNAMIC RELATION BETWEEN RETURNS,TRADING VOLUME,AND VOLATILITY: LESSONS FROM SPILLOVERS BETWEEN ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between index returns, return volatility, and trading volume for eight Asian markets and the US. We find cross‐border spillovers in returns to be non‐existent, spillovers in absolute returns between Asia and the US to be strong in both directions, and spillovers in volatility to run from Asia to the US. Trading volume, especially on the Asian markets, depends on shocks in domestic and foreign returns as well as on volatility, especially those shocks originating in the US. However, only weak evidence is found for trading volume influencing other variables. In the light of the theoretical models, these results suggest sequential information arrivals, with investors being overconfident and applying positive feedback strategy. Furthermore, new information causes price volatility to rise due to differences in its interpretation among traders, but the subsequent market reaction takes the form of adjustment in price level, not volatility. Lastly, the intensity of cross‐border spillovers seems to have increased following the 1997 crisis, which we interpret as evidence of increased noisiness in prices and diversity in opinions about news originating abroad. Our findings might also help to understand the nature of financial crises, to predict their further developments and consequences.     

影响漏电起痕试验结果的因素分析

针对绝缘材料漏电起痕试验中存在的影响正确试验结果的问题,例如试样选取、试样预处理、溶液配置、实验设备清洗及安装等方面,本文根据GB/T 4207-2003和IEC60112-2003标准的要求,通过对标准的理解和经验的总结,提出了影响漏电起痕实验结果的各种因素及相应的处理方法,在一定程度上能够减少试验误差,提高试验准确性,有助于相关检测部门改进试验方法。     

GB2828在实际生产中的应用

2003年我国新颁布了GB 2828-2003检验标准,为企业发展带来了一定的经济效益,其突出了实用性和可靠性的要求。本文通过比较分析了GB 2828的优越性与适应范围,比较详细阐述了GB 2828在实际生产中的应用与注意事项,希望能够为我们进一步完善企业内部质量监控体系打下了良好的基础。     

国企亏损面超过百分之四十国务院发展研究中心有关人士细说原委

国企亏损面超过百分之四十国务院发展研究中心有关人士细说原委国务院发展研究中心企业部部长丁宁宁日前称，１９９４年以来，国有企业的亏损面增加了，亏损企业数量占企业总数的比例超过了百分之四十。１９９４年国企亏损面增加，除了一些长期因素外，近期内的原因主要有...     

影响煤炭发热量测定结果的因素及对策

依据GB/T 213-2008《煤的发热量测定方法》,结合发热量测定过程中的实际操作,概括了影响煤炭发热量测定结果的若干因素,同时提出解决这些因素的对策。     

Recapitalization of Thailand's Banks After the 1997 Crisis: Interpretation and Critique from a Neo-institutional Perspective

The recapitalization of Thailand's banks following the 1997 crisis is interpreted and positively criticized from the perspective of neo-institutional theory. Although a recapitalization scheme was introduced as part of monetary policy in 1998, the statistics and critical reaction on the part of private interests suggest that public resources and administrative action would not suffice to fully and expeditiously fulfill this task. To increase the supply of private capital to the banking sector the authorities can most effectively adopt a neo-institutional philosophy, under which policy credibility in situations of financial distress is enhanced by the clarification of property rights and minimization of opportunities for special-interest action. Neo-institutional theory also suggests that it is possible to expedite overall monetary recovery if the government concentrates on its comparative advantage in supplying the public good of financial stability, and leave commercial banks free to realize private comparative advantage in areas such as restructuring, re-engineering, mergers and competition. To link public and private action in the areas noted above, initiatives can be introduced to cooperatively exploit relative efficiency in obtaining and using information to support decision-making.