论货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的有效性

本文把理论分析与实证分析相结合,运用协整检验、VEC模型和方差分解方法分析了1996年以来我国货币供应量、物价和产出的季度时间序列,论证了货币供应量与物价、产出间具有较强的相关性。从货币供应量的构成分析,基础货币具有较强的可控性;货币乘数可控性较差,但对货币乘数可以利用ARMA模型进行较为准确的预测。由此,本文得出的结论是货币供应量具有较强的可控性,从而有理由认为,货币供应量作为我国货币政策的中介目标在现阶段仍然是有效的。     

Personalized goal-based investing via multi-stage stochastic goal programming

In this paper, we propose a goal-based investment model that is suitable for personalized wealth management. The model only requires a few intuitive inputs such as size of wealth, investment amount, and consumption goals from individual investors. In particular, a priority level can be assigned to each consumption goal and the model provides a holistic solution based on a sequential approach starting with the highest priority. This allows strict prioritization by maximizing the probability of achieving higher priority goals that are not affected by goals with lower priorities. Furthermore, the proposed model is formulated as a linear program that efficiently finds the optimal financial plan. With its simplicity, flexibility, and computational efficiency, the proposed goal-based investment model provides a new framework for automated investment management services.     

Reconceptualizing value creation: Exploring the role of goal congruence in the Co-creation process

As companies gradually shift from the exchange view to the resource integration view, the creation of value also shifts from the customer sphere to the joint sphere. As a result, the customer and service provider are responsible for co-creating value through resource integration. However, it raises the question of whether customers are capable of contributing to the co-creation of value. Our study proposes a framework of how goal congruence plays a pivotal role in the resource integration process between all actors in the joint sphere. When the level of goal congruence between customer and service provider actors is high, it stimulates the exchange of valuable resources from all actors, which leads to the actual experience of co-creation resulting in value-in-use and improves service outcomes, i.e., customer satisfaction and loyalty. Data were collected through a field survey from salon-and-spa customers (n = 530) and PLS-SEM was employed to test the hypotheses and further analysis. The results show that goal congruence impacts customer satisfaction and loyalty through value-in-use. Therefore, suggesting service providers to properly socialize their goals will be a good strategy to increase customer capability to co-create value and ultimately enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty.     

企业、银行和政府三方还贷博弈研究

预算软约束已成为国有企业改革的阻碍因素,并影响经济转型期的政企、银企关系,而政府对于债务的软预算约束是企业信贷违约的原因之一,根据企业还贷过程中相关利益者的相互博弈,建立一个企业、银行、政府之间三方博弈模型来分析它们之间的行为及其目标差异对企业信贷违约的影响。模型分析表明：政府出于政治和经济利益的考虑,通过补贴银行和企业来实施对企业还贷的软预算约束,而银行在衡量了政府补贴和清算得失之后有可能对企业再贷款。解决预算软约束和企业信贷违约的关键在于＂政府、银行、企业＂之间的关系处理,企业完全按市场化运作,建立科学的法人治理结构,让政府从企业中逐步退出,硬化企业的预算约束环境,从而降低企业的信贷违约的概率。     

Effect of perceived conflict among multiple performance goals and goal difficulty on task performance

Contemporary performance measurement systems, such as the balanced scorecard, often advocate the use of an array of financial and non‐financial measures. Despite many claimed advantages for these systems, recent research shows that the inclusion of multiple performance measures sometimes has undesirable effects. The present study examines one of the potential problems of implementing these systems; namely, the impact of perceived goal conflict on task performance. Using survey data from employees working in multiple call centres in a telecommunication company, we find that perceived goal difficulty increases perceived goal conflict. Additionally, perceived goal difficulty also has a negative, indirect effect of task performance, through the mediating role of perceived goal conflict. Our results have important implications for both the research literature and the designers of performance measurement systems.     

关于大学会计职业道德教育问题的探讨——基于教育基本功能的分析

本文从教育的基本功能入手阐述职业道德教育是高等会计教育的重要组成部分,分析在会计诚信缺失的环境下会计职业道德教育受到的关注,在此基础上提出大学开展会计职业道德教育的目标、模式和方法。     

Understanding IJV performance in a learning and conflict mediated context

Determinants of international joint venture (IJV) performance are examined within the context of cross-border learning. Using a structural equation model, we test the multifaceted interactions among strategic goal congruency, national culture differences, learning and conflict. Cross-border learning is recognized as a kernel variable which is influenced by matching strategic motives, national culture differences, and conflicting relations, and which affects the performance of IJVs. In particular, we hypothesize that interpartner goal congruency and national culture differences have an indirect effect on IJV performance through cross-border learning and conflict; previous studies established their direct relationship. The test results show that congruent strategic motives and cultural similarity had a positive effect on cross-border learning, which was reinforced by learning capacity, and which in turn led to better performance. Conflicting relations between partners and heterogeneous cultural backgrounds were shown to discourage cross-border learning.     

Maximising sustainability of Dutch dairy farming systems for different stakeholders: A modelling approach

A multi-attribute sustainability function is included into a dairy farm LP-model by using Weighted Goal Programming. The created Weighted Linear Goal Programming (WLGP)-model is used to maximise sustainability of different Dutch dairy farming systems and to analyse the impact of: (1) maximisation of individual sustainability aspects (economic, social and ecological sustainability) and (2) maximisation of overall sustainability using stakeholder preferences. Maximising the individual aspects of both dairy farming systems, i.e. conventional and organic, shows the trade-offs between different aspects of sustainability. For conventional as well as organic dairy farming maximum scores are highest for external social sustainability. The conventional dairy farm achieves a slightly higher score for overall sustainability than the organic dairy farm for all stakeholders (i.e. consumers and producers). This shows that it is possible for conventional dairy farms, similar to the conventional farm used in the analysis especially regarding the stocking density and under Dutch policy conditions, to achieve equal sustainability scores in comparison with organic dairy farms. It is concluded that the WLGP model is a suitable tool to analyse the sustainability of different dairy farming systems.     

创造力与员工创新：上下级关系与目标导向的调节作用

创造力如何高效转化为员工创新是管理实践普遍面临的问题。依据社会认知理论,通过对4家国有企业管理者及其下属进行问卷调查,探讨了上下级关系和目标导向对创造力与员工创新的调节作用。结果发现：学习目标导向对创造力与员工创新存在显著的正向调节效应;企业上下级关系显著负向调节创造力与员工创新关系;目标导向与上下级关系交互调节创造力与员工创新,其中学习目标导向减弱了上下级关系对创造力与员工创新的负向调节作用,证明目标导向增强了上下级的负向调节效应。该结果揭示了创造力与员工创新的复杂权变关系,可为组织管理者科学有效管理创造力与员工创新提供理论启示与实践指导。     

A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand

Volatility, exponential smoothing, regression and Naïve 2 models are considered singly and in combination in terms of forecasting demand for international tourism. These models generate accurate predictions of tourism flows, but their prime utility is when combined with other models. Usually, models are combined by means of purely statistical criteria. We show that goal programming (GP) offers an alternative, flexible approach to model combination. GP offers planners a practical solution to tourism forecasting problems, since the method is more adaptable than conventional minimisation of prediction error, by permitting practitioners to prioritise a series of management related goals. Forecasters can focus on longer- and short-term goals, minimising forecast under- and over-estimation and/or concentrate on prediction errors in tourism flows at various times of the year.