我国股市与货币需求的相互影响分析及政策涵义

运用协整、弱外生性和因果关系检验对我国股票市场与货币需求的关系进行的实证研究发现,股市不影响M2的总量但影响其结构;M1对股市不产生直接影响,而M2对股市的直接影响处于有与无的临界状态;M1、M2均通过GDP对股市产生间接影响,但没有形成利率传导机制,我国股市是关于协整向量的弱外生变量.基于以上结论提出了相应的政策建议.     

从市场功能看我国货币市场结构的合理性

从市场要素角度看,我国货币市场结构的合理性已大大提高,但市场发展的最终目的是要充分发挥其特有的功能,因此有必要进一步从功能角度考察我国货币市场结构的合理性.货币市场是企业筹集短期资金的市场,是商业银行进行流动性管理的市场,是中央银行实施金融宏观调控的市场,本文从这三个方面系统评判了我国货币市场结构的合理性.     

Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market

This paper analyses the time series behaviour of the initial public offering (IPO) market using an equilibrium model of demand and supply that incorporates the number of new issues, average underpricing, and general market conditions. Model predictions include the existence of serial correlation in both the number of new issues and the average level of underpricing, as well as interactions between these variables and the impact of general market conditions. The model is tested using 40 years of monthly IPO data. The empirical results are generally consistent with predictions.     

Money,random matching and endogenous growth: A quantitative analysis

In this study, we develop a search-and-matching monetary growth model to analyze the effects of inflation on economic growth and social welfare by introducing endogenous economic growth via capital externality into a two-sector search-and-matching model. We find that the channel through which inflation affects economic growth in the search-and-matching model is different from the traditional cash-in-advance model. To facilitate the calibration, we obtain an empirical estimate of the effects of inflation on economic growth using panel regressions. In the simulation analysis, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare effect of inflation in the search-and-matching endogenous growth model and compare it to a search-and-matching exogenous growth model. We find that the welfare effect of inflation is nonlinear in the endogenous growth model whereas it is linear in the exogenous growth model. Furthermore, we find that the welfare cost of inflation under endogenous growth is up to four times as large as the welfare cost of inflation under exogenous growth.     

Quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio

We study optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model at the zero bound interest rate where households use cash alongside house equity borrowing to conduct transactions. The amount of borrowing is limited by a collateral constraint. When either the loan to value ratio declines or house prices fall, we observe a decrease in the money multiplier. We argue that the central bank should respond to the fall in the money multiplier and therefore to the reduction in house prices or the loan to collateral value ratio. We also find that optimal monetary policy generates a large and persistent fall in the money multiplier in response to the drop in the loan to collateral value ratio.     

Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation

This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performances of a broad monetary aggregate (M3), excess liquidity and excess inflation in predicting euro area inflation. The out-of sample forecasting performances are compared to a widely used alternative, the spread of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand, even when observations from the economic and financial crisis are included. Both excess measures and the spread are useful for predicting inflation.     

温泉度假村旅游服务质量评价实证研究——以河源御临门温泉度假村为例

以河源御临门温泉度假村为例,以温泉旅游服务质量评价问卷为基础,对影响温泉旅游服务质量的20个因素进行了分析,探讨游客对温泉度假村整体旅游服务质量的总体评价。建议度假村从"原生态"温泉文化、温泉旅游解说系统的建设、特色客家温泉饮食文化、员工培训等四个方面进行完善与提高,提升服务满意度。     

Monetary policy,endogenous transactions,and financial market segmentation

An endogenous financial market segmentation model is constructed to explore the role of costly credit as a medium of exchange in the monetary policy elasticity of financial market activity. Against inflation risk, credit is an alternative insurance device to a cash transfer from the financial market. In equilibrium, credit reduces the financial market activity rate. Monetary policy has redistributive effects across economic individuals. Inflation may not tax financial market non-participants. However, it may tax financial market participants by increasing the financial market activity rate. Welfare may increase and the optimal money growth rate can be positive.     

The concept of near money in loyalty programmes

Loyalty reward schemes often have their own currency, for example, frequent flyer miles, which is a form of near money or quasi money. In a variation of earlier work by Snelders et al. (1992), when examining both New Zealand (Study 1) and Hong Kong (Study 2) residents, respondents provided typicality ratings, similarity ratings, and answers and reaction times to the question “Is X a type of money?” for examples of money, near money and objects of value. The results from both studies showed that near money is conceptualised in a way that is like but distinct from legal tender. Two further studies investigated implications of this conceptualisation. Study 3 found that preferences for spending near money were influenced by the ostensible purpose of the currency, and Study 4 showed that near money seemed to be placed outside of regular legal tender mental accounts.     

Venture capital funds and the public equity market

This paper considers the relationship between the public equity market and the returns to venture investing using a dataset which is derived from the records of two large limited partners who have been investing in venture capital for almost 30 years. Evidence is found to suggest that market conditions over the investment cycle, and exit conditions at the time of exit in particular, are an important determinant. This paper also investigates whether any other aspects of the venture investment process respond to events in the broader market. While general trends are evident in the venture investment cycle, only the intensity of the investment process is found to respond to events in the public equity market.