The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

Who benefits from an oil boom? Evidence from a unique Alaskan data set

Oil booms have been shown to increase local employment and wages. But these effects reflect the aggregated experience of residents, commuters, and recent migrants alike. This paper takes advantage of a unique data set that identifies a rich set of labor market outcomes by place of residence, rather than by place of work. Exploiting this feature of the data, we examine the effect of a major oil boom on employment and wage outcomes in the North Slope Borough of Alaska. This analysis is juxtaposed with a more conventional one that uses place-of-work data collected from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we find that the oil boom of the late 2000s significantly increased non-residential employment. While the boom caused residential employment to shift from the public to the private sector, total residential employment was unaffected. There is weak evidence that residential wages increased in response to the boom. These results are important as drilling decisions are often negotiated locally by interest groups that might be less concerned with general equilibrium effects.     

‘Home comes first’: housing and homemaking in Finnish civic educational films during 1945–1969

This article focuses on how the ideals of housing and homemaking were presented in post‐war civic educational films in Finland. The films chosen for the article pertain to housing on a wide scope. The analysis shows that the ideals of good homes appeared to be remarkably consistent in the Finnish educational short films. The most important objective was to guide citizens towards careful household management and saving. Through rationalizing home economics, consumers were able to buy their own home. The ideal housewife had a positive attitude towards technology and rational household management. While the short films instructed people towards temperate and sensible consumption, they also created space for ordinary people to envision new opportunities for consumption.     

后金融危机时期中国货币政策选择——基于美国QE2经济后果的分析

"二次量化宽松政策"(简称QE2)是美联储在国内经济提振乏力、失业率居高不下以及世界经济复苏不平衡的背景下启动的。QE2或许能够使美国走出通缩的泥潭,也有可能催生资产泡沫,酝酿新的金融危机,但却无疑给世界经济,尤其是新兴市场国家的经济继续复苏蒙上了一层阴影,全球热钱将更加泛滥,世界经济秩序将遭到破坏,各国外汇储备将进一步缩水等。对此,我国中央银行货币政策必须加强与财政政策的配合,适时调整外汇储备资产结构,扩大本币结算合作,积极应对QE2的挑战。     

Understanding the resource curse (or blessing) across national and regional scales: Theory,empirical challenges and an application

The relationship between resource extraction activity and economic growth has been widely studied in the literature, and the resource curse hypotheses emerged as a theory to explain the effects of resource windfalls on national economies. However, within countries, resource booms and busts can have distinctive effects across local economies, as extractive regions face particular economic consequences unlikely to be observed in nonresource regions. Empirically, most studies analysing the resource curse have relied on cross‐country models to estimate effects and inform policy; however, the use of regional – within‐country – analysis has gained attention from scholars lately, promoted by two advantages: it avoids unobserved country heterogeneities confounding economic outcomes caused by resources and exploits the subnational quasi‐natural experimental conditions generated by endowments. This paper contributes to the resource curse literature by discussing its theoretical causes across scale (regional vs. national effects) and highlighting the empirical challenges involved in the analysis of mining economic impacts across regions. We complement the discussions by econometrically modelling economic growth across nonmetropolitan substate regions of Australia during a period of resource windfalls, finding that in most cases, resources have been a blessing for local economies, although negative effects have also been experienced in parts of the country.     

城市化影响金融业竞争力了吗？ ——个理论模型及来自江苏省的证据

摘在已有文献的基础上,本文构建了一个城市化影响金融业竞争力的理论模型,推导结果表明,城市化对金融业竞争力同时存在积聚效应和负向效应。随后本文利用江苏省面板数据进行实证分析,研究结果表明,城市化对金融业竞争力的影响存在不确定性：城市化本身有助于提升金融业竞争力,工资成本起到了增强金融业竞争力的作用,但住房成本削弱了金融业竞争力。金融业能够起到优化配置经济资源的作用,在发挥金融业支持城市化建设这一作用的同时,我们需要关注城市化提升金融业竞争力的路径和对策,力争达成城市化和金融业发展并行不悖的良好境界。     

建立扩大内需长效机制的财税政策研究

在后金融危机时代,扩大内需成为国家的重大战略,本文对我国的消费率进行了横向和纵向比较,主要从提高名义收入水平、减轻税收负担、调控房价等方面探讨了建立扩大内需长效机制的财税政策。并提出在保证居民消费能力的同时,还需提高中低收入居民社会保障水平,让居民既有能力消费也敢于消费。     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

旁租波动与政府干预

房租的逐渐上涨及其变动原因成为近期关注的焦点之一。本文分析了城市房租波动的四个典型化特征,并讨论了影响城市房租波动的若干因素,其中包括房价变动及以收入和利率表征的基本面因素,也包括投机需求和政府限购政策及房产税等。最后,我们分析了政府干预房租的可能性和形式。     

创新住房保障模式 解决“夹心层”住房问题

为解决现有住房保障模式下存在的“夹心层”住房问题,本文从住房保障对象识别、保障方式选择、住房补贴标准确定、补贴金额计算等方面构建了一种新型的住房保障模式,该模式以货币补贴替代目前的实物补贴,实现了“收入越高补贴越少”的反向递减补贴效果,实现了住房保障的垂直公平,解决了现有模式下的“夹心层”问题,并进行了实证分析。