MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF A US MULTIREGIONAL HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SYSTEM

This paper applies the maximum-likelihood equation to a model that produces US regional household expenditure estimates using national-level data on average expenditures by type of household and regional data on the number of households by type. Empirical results follow the analytical properties of the model and demonstrate an impressive capacity to recover regional statistics. These findings are useful in applied regional studies since they demonstrate a general framework to assess the input data and the overall estimation model.     

全新范式方法在传统语言学研究中的应用

在对乔姆斯基的转换生成语法进行全面概述的基础上,指认出其对传统语言学研究范式所进行的三大转换,即从描述到解释,从表层到深层以及从解构到建构,而这种转换的实质则在于从经验到先验。     

中国国民经济若干指标季节波动的方向数据统计分析

本文应用方向数据统计方法分析1998～2005年货运量、居民消费价格总指数、社会消费品零售总额、出口总额和进口总额以及1999～2005年工业增加值等指标的月度数据。通过均匀性检验和Von-Mises分布检验确定分布类型，分析不同分布类型下经济指标的波动特征，从理论上探讨季节波动的成因。指出有良性规律的季节波动是实现既稳定又较快经济增长的保证。     

财会“主体”类型及其关系

基于会计主体假设中对会计主体的质疑、财务主体研究中对财务主体的争议,理财主体假设中理财主体的悄然出现,分析了财会主体的三个类型及其三者之间的交叉关系和主客体关系。     

Nonlinear dynamical structural equation models

Structural equation models (SEMs) have been widely used in behavioural, educational, medical and socio-psychological research for exploring and confirming relations among observed and latent variables. In the existing SEMs, the unknown coefficients in the measurement and structural equations are assumed to be constant with respect to time. This assumption does not always hold, as the relation among the observed and latent variables varies with time for some situations. In this paper, we propose nonlinear dynamical structural equation models to cope with these situations, and explore the nonlinear dynamic of the relation between the variables involved. A local maximum likelihood-based estimation procedure is proposed. We investigate a bootstrap resampling-based test for the hypothesis that the coefficient is constant with respect to time, as well as confidence bands for the unknown coefficients. Intensive simulation studies are conducted to show the empirical performance of the proposed estimation procedure, hypothesis test statistic and confidence band. Finally, a real example in relation to the stock market of Hong Kong is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodologies.     

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) with Structural Breaks: Evidence from Foreign Exchanges of Nigeria and South Africa

ABSTRACT

This study tests for MDH in two prominent foreign exchange (FX) markets in Africa, Nigeria and South Africa using three benchmark currencies (euro, dollar and pound sterling). Data utilized cover time series closing rate data set of five-day weekly frequency spanning December 14, 2001 to September 26, 2014. The study considers both the linear and nonlinear measures for MDH with better size and power properties. We also capture structural break endogenously from the data stream using Perron (2006) unit root test with structural break. Three striking findings are discernible from our analyses. First, on average, the South African FX market appears to be more efficient than the Nigerian FX market. Thus, the latter may be more susceptible to speculations than the former. Second, ignoring significant structural breaks may render statistical inferences invalid. Third, the choice of methodology does matter when testing for MDH of foreign exchanges in Africa.     

Commodity index investment and food prices: does the “Masters Hypothesis” explain recent price spikes?

The “Masters Hypothesis” is the claim that unprecedented buying pressure in recent years from commodity index investors created massive bubbles in food and energy prices. The purpose of this article is to review the evidence from recent studies that investigate the empirical relationship between index investment and price movements in agricultural futures markets. One line of research uses time‐series regression tests, such as Granger causality tests, to investigate the relationship between price movements and index positions. This research provides little evidence in support of the Masters Hypothesis in agricultural futures markets. A second line of research uses cross‐sectional regression tests and studies in this area provide very limited evidence in favor of the Masters Hypothesis for agricultural futures markets. A third line of research investigates whether there is a significant relationship between commodity index trading and the difference, or spread, between futures prices of different contract maturities on the same date. These studies report a range of results depending on the type of test. However, the bulk of the evidence indicates either no relationship or a negative relationship, which is once again inconsistent with the Masters Hypothesis. Overall, this growing body of literature fails to find compelling evidence that buying pressure from commodity index investment in recent years caused a massive bubble in agricultural futures prices. The Masters Hypothesis is simply not a valid characterization of reality.     

“准心理学自利主义”与社会主义市场经济

结合当代西方规范伦理学理论、古典经济学的市场经济理论和马克思主义理论,对现阶段的人性假设做一个基本判断:人们在采取行动的时候更容易为自己的利益而不是为他人利益所打动,笔者把它称作"准心理学自利主义"。这种人性假设是对人的心理特征的一种事实假定,而非主张利己主义的伦理规范。这种人性假设与亚当.斯密的"无形之手"具有相似性,与马克思关于社会主义个人与社会关系论述也具有一致性,但它不是极端的利己主义,而是有限制地发展个人利益,是既体现效率又倡导公正的人性假设。它是我们制定社会主义市场经济的实然基础,我国的社会主义市场经济是符合这种人性的"无形之手"和"有形之手"有机结合的科学社会主义。     

绩效考核的失真因素分析

绩效考核的目的在于择优察劣,保持组织的高效,但是一旦绩效考核的结果失真,不仅会影响到员工的积极性和满意度,也会使组织的利益受损。本文主要针对影响考核结果的因素进行了分析,并对如何防范这些因素提出了几点建议。