Quality dualism

We suggest a theory of quality dualism, defined in terms of the gap between the highest quality good produced in the informal sector and the lowest quality produced in the formal sector. We develop a model of vertically differentiated products, in which firms producing in the formal and informal sectors face different factor prices, and have a relative advantage in the manufacture of different qualities. We then use the model to examine the cyclical behavior of the respective sizes of the two sectors. Finally, we point out that factor price changes, which reduce or increase the size of the informal sector, may have the same or opposite effect on the degree of dualism in the economy.     

Post Bretton Woods deviations from purchasing power parity in G7 exchange rates—an empirical exploration

Exchange rates have deviated substantially and idiosyncratically from purchasing power parity (PPP) since the breakdown of Bretton Woods. In this paper, a model incorporating both traditional PPP and financial market variables is constructed and tested on the US dollar's six G7 exchange rates during the floating rate era. Empirical tests show that the model's common set of variables—with consistent signs—can explain the divergent behavior of G7 exchange rates during 1973.2–90.2. Idiosyncracies are reflected in different subsets of the model's variables entering significantly into each exchange rate's regression; the existence of stable relationships is demonstrated by the equations' co-integration.     

Financial statement data in assessing the future potential of a technology firm: The case of Nokia

The paper introduces a financial statement method to assess the future potential of a firm. First, the last strategic steady phase is identified. Second, growth rate for total expenditure is estimated (growth process). Third, the revenue generating potential of total expenditure is evaluated by a distributed lag function (revenue-generating process). This function is used to recalculate expenses and assets using alternative depreciation theories. Third, financial behavior is modeled by analyzing financial assets, taxation, interest expenses and revenues, and dividends (financial process). Fourth, these processes are used to assess the future potential. The method is illustrated by the case of Nokia for the period 1990-2000.     

Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?

In emerging markets, external debt is denominated almost entirely in large, developed country currencies such as the U.S. dollar. This liability dollarization offers a channel through which exchange rate variation can lead to business cycle instability. When firms' assets are denominated in domestic currency and liabilities are denominated in foreign currency, an exchange rate depreciation worsens firms' balance sheets, which leads to higher capital costs and contractions in capital spending. To illustrate this, I construct a quantitative, sticky price, small open economy model in which a monetary policy induced devaluation leads to a persistent contraction in output. In this model, fixed exchange rates offer greater stability than an interest rule that targets inflation.     

Validating the international tourist role scale

This study was designed to validate the international tourist role scale and the three dimensions it revealed. The purpose of this attitudinal scale was to measure the tourist role typology. United States adult outbound tourists flying with 11 major airlines returned useful questionnaires. This study validated the role scale as a reliable one that properly identified three conceptual dimensions of international tourist typology and successfully provided measures of tourists’ novelty-seeking preferences on the three dimensions. The study demonstrated, however, that the scale would measure the novelty-seeking preferences of international tourists more effectively if it were supplemented by other measures.     

骨代谢疾病治疗药的合理研发

本文比较了目前国内外临床上治疗以骨质疏松(OP)为代表的骨代谢疾病不同靶点药物的特点.大量临床实践表明,以破骨细胞为靶点的骨吸收抑制剂不能完全达到改善患者骨质量的、减少骨折的效果.基于骨再建机理,只有将骨吸收抑制剂与骨形成促进剂交替配合使用,即ADFR方式的治疗才是有望真正到达改善患者骨质量、同时降低药物毒副作用的目的.     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.     

粉煤灰合成4(A)沸石最佳工艺条件的研究

研究了利用粉煤灰合成4A沸石的工艺过程，通过正交试验考察了钠铝摩尔比、硅铝摩尔比、水钠摩尔比、晶化温度和晶化时间不同条件的变化对所合成样品钙交换能力的影响，选定了最佳工艺条件，合成的样品具有良好的钙离子交换能力和结晶度。     

Financial crisis,GDP variation and earnings management in Europe

The purpose of this study is to examine the consequences of the financial crisis on the European companies’ in conjunction with earnings management practice. It focuses on financially distressed companies that audited by a big 4 auditor during recession years. The study makes use of discretionary accruals as a proxy for earnings management and studies the influence of big 4 auditor, in order to shed more light on possible causes for shifting earnings. The findings of the study provide evidence that financially distressed companies that audited by a big 4 auditor exhibit lower discretionary accruals. The results reveal that Greek and Spanish companies reduce earnings management manipulation during recession. In contrast, Portuguese, Irish and Italian companies show mixed results. They tend to reduce earnings management practices, but there are reasons that influence managers’ behavior to increase earnings management. The findings of this study can be useful for both investors and standard setting authorities.     

Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.