出口企业更清洁吗？——基于微观企业数据的再考察

基于工业企业数据以及环境统计数据,构建1998-2007年面板数据实证分析出口对企业二氧化硫排放强度的影响。回归结果显示：相较于非出口企业,出口企业二氧化硫排放强度较低;企业出口强度越高时二氧化硫排放强度越低。异质性分析发现：企业所属行业以及企业所在地区差异均会对二氧化硫排放强度产生影响。具体表现为,污染密集型制造业行业中,出口企业比非出口企业更为清洁;相较于其他地区而言,东部地区企业出口对二氧化硫排放强度的降低幅度更为显著。在排除两控区环境规制因素对回归结果的影响,并且通过IV(2SLS)以及PSM-DID等方法处理内生性问题后,本文的回归结果依然稳健。机制分析表明：出口企业一方面通过提高新产品产值——R D,另一方面通过提高全要素生产率,降低了企业的二氧化硫排放强度。此外,通过对企业出口状态的改变(广延边际)和企业出口强度的改变(集约边际)的比较发现,出口企业二氧化硫排放强度低的主要驱动因素在于广延边际而非集约边际。     

On inferring individual behaviour from market behaviour in a predetermined quantities model

This article develops the theoretical basis of individual behaviour recovered from market behaviour in a predetermined quantities model. As applied economists argue, an inverse demand system may be empirically sound within the framework of classical demand theory. However, it should not lead to the conclusion that the market responses for changes in quantity should be used to see welfare effects instead of the individual responses by price changes as far as the market is concerned. It shows theoretically and empirically how individual responses can be recovered from market responses in a predetermined quantities model. It suggests that the fundamental results of this article should be used on interpreting empirical results from the predetermined quantities models.     

产业视角下的中国工业能源碳排放Divisia指数分解及实证分析

工业能源碳排放在中国总碳排放中占据极其重要的位置,也是中国低碳减排工作关注的重点.文章从产业视角出发,利用Divisia指数分解法构建中国工业能源碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析1998～2007年间,能源排放强度、能源结构、能源效率、产业结构以及产出等五因素对中国工业能源碳排放的影响.分析不同因素对中国工业能源碳排放的不同影响以及不同因素在工业系统内部各产业间的变化特性,从而为中国工业能源碳减排路径提供政策建议.     

中国省际环境污染的动态综合评价及影响因素

基于单一污染物难以表达环境污染状况的不足,本文提出了能够代表整体环境状况的污染排放指数,并首次运用一种基于整体差异的动态客观综合评价方法对中国28个省1995～2006年的环境污染状况进行了测度,分析了中国和分区域污染排放指数的变动趋势,并基于经济结构和能源因素视角,采用面板数据模型检验了中国和分区域污染排放指数的影响因素。分析表明,要实现十一五规划中主要污染物在2010年比2006年减少10%的约束性目标,从三大区域来看,应该重点监控东部地区;从省级区域看,应该重点加大对河北、江苏、辽宁、山东、四川、河南、山西、广东、浙江、湖北、湖南等省份污染排放的治理力度,提高能源利用效率、制定符合市场机制的能源价格体系、加大贸易开放度和降低煤炭消费在能源消费中的比例可以减少污染排放。     

The Ethics of Emissions Trading

This article defends three ethical arguments against emissions trading. The first argument alleges that emissions trading is morally objectionable, because it ‘commodifies’ the atmosphere. The second argument involves various objections to attaching prices to units of emissions – loosely speaking, the objection is to pricing that which is priceless or should not be priced. The third argument turns on the idea that if a large cut in emissions is to be made by society overall, everyone should ‘do their bit’ by making a particular kind of sacrifice rather than paying others to do it instead. Some general conclusions concern the limitations of confining the analysis to idealised emissions trading, the difficulty in separating ‘economistic’ thinking about policy delivery from policy choice and the need to focus questions of justice on consumers rather than on producers.     

Does Increased Extraction of Natural Gas Reduce Carbon Emissions?

Without an international climate agreement, extraction of more natural gas could reduce emissions of CO₂ as more clean natural gas may drive out dirty coal and oil. Using a computable equilibrium model for the Western European electricity and natural gas markets, we examine whether increased extraction of natural gas in Norway reduces global emissions of CO₂. We find that both in the short run and in the long run total emissions are reduced if the additional quantity of natural gas is used in gas power production in Norway. If instead the additional quantity is exported directly, total emissions increase both in the short run and in the long run. However, if modest CO₂-taxes are imposed, increased extraction of natural gas will reduce CO₂ emissions also when the additional natural gas is exported directed.earlier version of this paper was presented at the 25th Annual IAEE International Conference in Aberdeen June 2002.     

中国省区碳排放强度的分布特征及其变化分析

文章定量测算和分析我国1997-2008年能源消费二氧化碳排放强度的区域和行业分布,结果显示,工业和交通运输业的碳强度远高于其他行业,东部发达地区的碳强度远低于其他地区;并且,各省区的碳强度状况与其所处的工业化进程差异及采取的产业结构调整战略直接相关。同时,基于LMDI分解方法进行的各省区能耗碳强度变化的影响因素分析表明,能源强度的改善是驱动1997-2008年大部分省区碳强度降低的主导因素,而产业结构的变化则趋于拉升大部分省区的碳强度。上述两种力量在各省区有着明显不同的作用程度。     

区域经济增长与碳排放脱钩关系的实证研究——以甘肃省为例

通过运用IPCC推荐的二氧化碳计算方法,推算出1994-2009年期间甘肃省工业部门的二氧化碳排放量,并以此为基础,基于Tapio脱钩指标对此期间甘肃省经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间的关系进行了脱钩分析,得出甘肃省经济增长与二氧化碳之间总体上呈弱脱钩状态。进一步分析,得出造成这种趋势的主要原因在于产业结构和能源消费结构的路径依赖效应。最后,基于结论提出针对性政策建议。     

我国经济增长对CO2排放影响的区域差异分析——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

通过选取我国各地区2000-2009年人均GDP和C02排放量的面板数据,建立变截距模型分析了经济增长对CO2排放量的影响,建立变系数模型分析了经济增长对CO：排放量影响的地区差异性,运用聚类分析了各省能源利用结构差异,最终证明经济增长并非是CO2排放量增加的直接原因,我国可以实现CO2减排与经济增长的双赢。     

Energy efficiency promotion backfires under cap-and-trade

Major climate-cum-energy policies and respective impact projections rest on the widespread belief that increased energy efficiency can be equated with savings in energy use and emissions. This belief is flawed. Due to the rebound effect emissions savings from energy efficiency improvements will be generally less than what is technically feasible, or even be reversed. By means of an analytical general equilibrium model we demonstrate the latter to be true in a case that is both stark and relevant: if electricity generation is subject to a cap-and-trade scheme with partial coverage, increased efficiency of electric devices leads unambiguously to increased carbon emissions. The result implies that a proper distinction between the energy rebound and the carbon rebound is warranted, and that public policy must carefully consider the interactions between energy efficiency promotion and carbon pricing.