Section软件在非稳定流抽水试验中的应用

利用电子表格和Section软件,提出了非稳定流抽水试验资料分析的一种新方法。该方法首先利用电子表格对数据进行处理,然后在Section软件中进行投影,并把实测点和理论曲线进行拟合,求出相应的水文地质参数。达到了省时、省力、减少误差的目的。     

掘进机状态参数实时监测系统的开发

本文介绍了目前综掘工作面实现自动化和智能化的重要性,针对这一发展趋势,开发了悬臂式掘进机状态参数监测系统。介绍了该监测系统的原理和结构组成,分析了其具备的监测、采集、运算、显示等功能。该监测系统的开发为掘进机智能化的研究打下了基础。     

大位移井水力参数软件编制研究

传统的水力参数设计理论,一般不考虑岩屑运移的影响,这在直井、井深不大的定向井和水平井应用时不会产生较大误差,但在应用于大位移井时,由于斜井段和水平段很长,如果不考虑岩屑运移(岩屑床)的影响,将会产生较大误差,同时过高的岩屑床也会带来许多安全问题。必须结合大位移井特点,建立适合于大位移井的水力参数计算和设计体系。因此在理论研究的基础上,本文利用VB6.0程序编制了此套大位移井岩屑床及最小排量水力参数设计软件,经过现场证明,此套软件对现场的钻井施工具有很好的指导作用。     

路基压实度检测技术初探

路基压实度是路基路面施工质量检测的关键指标之一,路基压实度的高低直接制约着路基路面施工质量的好坏和今后的使用效果。本文在分析路基最大干密度和最佳含水量的基础上,对目前路基压实度常用检测方法进行了探讨。     

锚杆(锚索)支护设计技术参数与应用

根据锚杆作用的不同机理,结合数据库技术,介绍了锚杆支护参数校核系统的一般原理,着重分析了经验数据在数据库中的表示方法,并且结合应用实例,说明了锚杆支护参数校核系统的优点及实用性。     

地方高校与区域创新系统的协调度研究——对河北省和山西省的实证分析

地方高校作为区域内的主要知识创新源,对区域创新系统的发展,创新绩效的提高有重要的促进作用。地方高校系统作为区域内的一个子系统与区域创新系统相互关联、相互促进,共同构成了一个相互协同的复合系统。文章利用协同学理论的分析框架,从地方高校系统和区域创新系统两方面选取指标作为模型序参量,并引入地方高校系统和区域创新系统协同发展的协调度模型,对河北省和山西省两个区域的地方高校与区域创新系统的协调发展进行了比较分析,并得出了有益的结论。     

正交实验法在确定丁烷法顺酐生产装置反应器最佳操作条件中的运用

针对在正丁烷法顺酐生产工艺反应工段操作参数优化过程中,存在耗时长、能耗高、装置波动大、优化效果不明显等问题,提出将正交实验法运用于反应器最佳操作条件的确定,以吐哈油田石油天然气化工厂顺酐装置2004-2006年间反应器操作参数统计数据为基础,论证了正交实验法用于化工生产中是一种快捷、科学、经济、高效的优化生产组织的方法。     

Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach

Nowadays, brand choice models are standard tools in quantitative marketing. In most applications, parameters representing brand intercepts and covariate effects are assumed to be constant over time. However, marketing theories, as well as the experience of marketing practitioners, suggest the existence of trends or short-term variations in particular parameters. Hence, having constant parameters over time is a highly restrictive assumption, which is not necessarily justified in a marketing context and may lead to biased inferences and misleading managerial insights.In this paper, we develop flexible, heterogeneous multinomial logit models based on penalized splines to estimate time-varying parameters. The estimation procedure is fully data-driven, determining the flexible function estimates and the corresponding degree of smoothness in a unified approach. The model flexibly accounts for parameter dynamics without any prior knowledge needed by the analyst or decision maker. Thus, we position our approach as an exploratory tool that can uncover interesting and managerially relevant parameter paths from the data without imposing assumptions on their shape and smoothness.Our approach further allows for heterogeneity in all parameters by additively decomposing parameter variation into time variation (at the population level) and cross-sectional heterogeneity (at the individual household level). It comprises models without time-varying parameters or heterogeneity, as well as random walk parameter evolutions used in recent state space models, as special cases. The results of our extensive model comparison suggest that models considering parameter dynamics and household heterogeneity outperform less complex models regarding fit and predictive validity. Although models with random walk dynamics for brand intercepts and covariate effects perform well, the proposed semiparametric approach still provides a higher predictive validity for two of the three data sets analyzed.For joint estimation of all regression coefficients and hyperparameters, we employ the publicly available software BayesX, making the proposed approach directly applicable.     

中国生产性服务业与制造业的共生行为模式检验

在很长一段时期内,生产性服务业与制造业的共生发展将会是中国产业结构演化调整的最佳状态。为深入剖析目前中国生产性服务业与制造业的共生关系,以全要素生产率为主质参量构造面板数据,对中国生产性服务业与制造业的共生行为模式及地区差异进行判定和甄别。研究结果显示:中国生产性服务业与制造业处于非对称性互惠共生状态,生产性服务业对制造业的依存度要大于制造业对生产性服务业的依存度;各省市地区的共生行为模式差异较大,东、中、西部地区的共生状态渐次恶化,部分中西部省份甚至出现了反向共生现象;样本时段内生产性服务业与制造业的共生度和共生系数波动不定,2005年出现实质性转折。     

The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union

This paper adopts a time-varying GARCH framework to estimate short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty in 12 EMU countries, and then investigates their relationship with inflation. The effects of the Euro introduction in 1999 are examined by utilising a dummy variable. Tests for endogenously determined breaks are also employed. We find a considerable degree of heterogeneity across EMU countries in terms of average inflation, its degree of persistence, and both types of uncertainty, whilst the trend component of inflation is generally decreasing. Various breaks in the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty are found, frequently well before the Euro introduction.