On the dynamics of inequality

The dynamics of inequality are studied in a model of human capital accumulation with credit constraints. This model admits a multiplicity of steady state skill ratios that exhibit varying degrees of inequality across households. The main result studies equilibrium paths. It is shown that an equilibrium sequence of skill ratios must converge monotonically to the smallest steady state that exceeds the initial ratio for that sequence. Convergence is “gradual" in that the steady state is not achieved in finite time. On the other hand, if the initial skill ratio exceeds the largest steady state, convergence to a steady state is immediate.This paper is based on unpublished notes from 1990; see http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/debraj/DevEcon/Notes/incdist.pdf. Two considerations suggest that these results may be worth reporting in print. First, the existence of a sizeable recent literature indicates that these relatively early notes may have value outside a filing cabinet or a private webpage. Second, Mukul Majumdar’s own research on economic growth with a nonconvex technology is an even earlier precursor to some of this literature, so the current outlet – a special issue in his honor – seems appropriate. Conversations with Glenn Loury simplified the proof of the main result. I thank Dilip Mookherjee for many useful discussions, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft. Funding from the National Science Foundation under grant number 0241070 is acknowledged. This paper is dedicated with much affection and warm admiration to Mukul Majumdar – or to Mukulda, as I always think of him – on the occasion of his 60th birthday.     

成本收益视角下农村劳动力转移的研究

农村劳动力转移既是关系农民增收的“民生”,又是关系实现全面小康社会和现代化目标的“国计”。当前,在“民工潮”依然存在之时,我国部分地区、部分行业却出现了“民工荒”。本文从描述这一现状出发,在成本收益视角下分析了农村劳动力转移的制约因素,进而提出有针对性的政策建议。     

对新疆实现跨越式发展和长治久安主要目标的测算与分析

中央新疆工作会议提出了新形势下推进新疆跨越式发展和长治久安的目标任务,并明确提出到2015年新疆人均生产总值要达到全国平均水平,城乡居民收入和人均基本公共服务能力达到西部地区平均水平,确保2020年实现全面建设小康社会奋斗目标。结合新疆工作会议提出的目标,本文对2015年新疆人均GDP达到全国平均水平、城乡居民收入达到西部平均水平,以及2020年与全国同步实现全面建设小康社会目标三项指标进行测度分析,以期为政府决策和＂十二五＂规划目标的制定提供依据。     

我国农村公共品供给诱导机制研究

出于效率考虑,发展中国家一般很少直接参与农村公共品的供给。用斯塔克博格博弈描述政府与农民生产农村公共品的过程,纵然在双方均没有公共品生产优势的情况下,作为跟随者的政府完全有动机提高农民收入以刺激农民独立承担所需公共品的投资。在城市偏向的政策下,城乡收入差距控制在一个临界点之内,使得村民自我承担的公共品投资水平随宏观经济发展不断提高。     

我国会计制度与企业所得税法规差异协调策略

税收从产生之日起,就与会计联系在一起。随着人类社会经济的发展,税收与会计的联系更加紧密,它们相互作用、相互影响,在社会经济生活中发挥着越来越大的作用,并成为经济学的两个重要分支。会计制度与税收的处理不仅是税务部门与企业的重要工作,而且对整个社会的经济发展也有着重要的影响,如何处理会计制度与税法之间的关系,既是会计制度和税收制度设计的理论问题,又是征纳双方确定征纳税额和反映会计信息的实践问题。在新的税法出台和新的会计准则实施后我国会计制度与企业所得税法规差异的协调更有意义。     

个人所得税专项附加扣除对劳动收入的再分配效应测算

我国于2019年1月1日起实施个人所得税专项附加扣除制度。本次个人所得税改革推出专项附加扣除制度,是我国税制改革历史上的重要里程碑,将对我国居民收入分配、税制结构调整以及经济格局产生深远影响。本文采用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2015年的数据,通过微观模拟预估专项附加扣除制度改革前后家庭缴纳的个税差异,并在此基础上采用基尼系数、帕累托最优标准,测算和评价专项附加扣除制度对家庭劳动收入的再分配效应。研究发现,专项附加扣除制度尽管在一定程度上削弱了个税的收入再分配效应,但社会的整体福利得到提升,收入分布更接近帕累托最优。     

垂直财政不对称与收入不平等——基于转移支付依赖的门槛效应分析

收入分配不平等是现阶段我国社会的主要矛盾之一。本文实证考察了分税制改革以来政府间纵向财政分配体制对居民收入差距的影响。结果显示,垂直财政不对称提高总体上未起到缩小居民收入分配差距的作用。转移支付依赖度较低时,垂直财政不对称提高有助于降低居民收入不平等;而转移支付依赖度超过某个阈值时,垂直财政不对称提高反而加剧居民收入分配不均衡。在一般性转移支付的门槛效应中,垂直财政不对称提高会降低收入不平等;在专项转移支付的门槛效应中,垂直财政不对称对收入不平等的影响呈现“U型”关系。这意味着政府间财政分配关系改革应合理控制转移支付规模,进一步提高一般性转移支付的比重。     

Migration,population aging,and income inequality in China

In this study, we examine the effects of four demographic factors, namely, birth, death, natural aging, and net migration, on population aging and income inequality in China. We use the official Chinese data and the China Household Income Project Survey data for the 2007–2013 period and apply a decomposition model based on the Shapley method. Unlike previous studies, we include migration in our decomposition model and find that natural aging is the primary factor contributing to population aging in both urban and rural areas. Further, migration may accelerate population aging in rural areas. Moreover, migration contributes to reducing income inequality in urban areas, while widening income inequality in rural areas. The effect of migration is larger than those of birth, death, and natural aging on income inequality. The robustness checks confirm these conclusions.     

CENTRAL BANK POLICIES AND INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY: A SURVEY

This paper reviews recent research on the relationship between central bank policies and inequality. A new paradigm which integrates sticky‐prices, incomplete markets, and heterogeneity among households is emerging, which allows for the joint study of how inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates and how macroeconomic shocks and policies affect inequality. The new paradigm features multiple distributional channels of monetary policy. Most empirical studies, however, analyze each potential channel of redistribution in isolation. Our review suggests that empirical research on the effects of conventional monetary policy on income and wealth inequality yields mixed findings, although there seems to be a consensus that higher inflation, at least above some threshold, increases inequality. In contrast to common wisdom, conclusions concerning the impact of unconventional monetary policies on inequality are also not clear cut. To better understand policy effects on inequality, future research should focus on the estimation of General Equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents.     

Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions

We test the Rajan hypothesis using data for Russian regions from 2000 (after the ruble crisis) to 2012 (before the introduction of international sanctions). The Rajan hypothesis predicts that rising income inequality leads politicians to expand credit for the poor, which in turn, fuels a consumer credit boom. Russia provides a unique research opportunity becaise it is a post-communist transition country with 75 diverse regions. We find that a rise in income inequality is positively correlated with personal loan growth in Russia. We also find a statistically weaker, albeit economically larger, relationship between economic inequality and corporate credit. Taken together, our results provide support for the Rajan hypothesis in a country with extreme regional differences and a long history of populist policies.