我国存款保险制度“显性化”研究

存款保险制度具有稳定金融体系、保护存款人利益、降低金融风险等功能。通过对隐性存款保险制度与显性存款保险制度的比较,和对我国建立存款保险制度的障碍的分析显示,建立显性的存款保险制度是我国金融体制改革的必然要求。     

不良贷款约束下的中国上市商业银行效率和全要素生产率研究——基于SBM方向性距离函数的实证分析

本文运用SBM方向性距离函数和Luenberger生产率指标测度了2003～2009年中国11家上市商业银行不良贷款约束下的效率和全要素生产率增长,并对影响效率和全要素生产率的宏观因素进行了实证分析。研究结果发现:股份制商业银行的效率优于大型商业银行,非利息收入和不良贷款是银行无效率的主要来源;中国银行业的全要素生产率是增长的,股份制商业银行的全要素生产率高于大型商业银行,主要体现在规模效率变化和技术规模变化;外资银行的进入和M_2的供给增长对中国银行业的发展起到推动作用。     

A Brief History of General-to-specific Modelling*

We review key stages in the development of general-to-specific modelling (Gets). Selecting a simplified model from a more general specification was initially implemented manually, then through computer programs to its present automated machine learning role to discover a viable empirical model. Throughout, Gets applications faced many criticisms, especially from accusations of ‘data mining’—no longer pejorative—with other criticisms based on misunderstandings of the methodology, all now rebutted. A prior theoretical formulation can be retained unaltered while searching over more variables than the available sample size from non-stationary data to select congruent, encompassing relations with invariant parameters on valid conditioning variables.     

建筑市场信息不对称及治理对策研究

本文基于不对称信息理论,建立了委托代理关系下的建筑业信息模型,并具体分析了建筑业目前由于信息不对称造成的各种问题,最后对相关问题提出了几点治理对策和建议。     

六安铁路物流基地选址及平面布置方案研究

为将六安市规划打造成为全国陆路型物流节点城市,发挥六安市区位及交通优势,推动地区产业升级、优化城市发展格局。基于六安地区铁路总图规划,结合城市经济、产业布局、交通条件、用地条件等,确定新建铁路物流基地选址。根据选址车站枣树店站的地理位置、铁路条件和功能分区设计,提出平行铁路布置方案与垂直铁路布置方案2个方案。经综合比选,推荐采用作业效率高、工程代价小的平行铁路布置方案,加快实现六安市物流产业网络化、集约化和信息化,促进区域产业升级转型。     

Precarious postdocs: A comparative study on recruitment and selection of early-career researchers

This paper investigates how the recruitment and selection for project-based postdoc positions are organised in the current academic landscape characterised by increasing temporary research funding and how principal investigators construct the ‘ideal’ postdoc. Our findings are based on a qualitative comparative multiple-case study in Social and Natural Sciences departments of universities in four European countries. This study contributes to the literature on the neoliberal university and academic staff evaluation by using a systemic, power-sensitive approach that examines how postdocs enter the academic system and how manifestations of precarity are exacerbated. Our critical analysis reveals three manifestations of precarity that the current academic system creates for postdocs, related to control, contracts, and careers. We discuss the effects for individual postdocs and their careers and the quality of knowledge production in public funded higher education institutions.     

灵活就业人员医疗保险参与及受益归属——基于逆向选择和正向分配效应的双重检验

当前,灵活就业人员医疗保险发展不充分与不平衡的问题格外突出,这不仅会制约医保制度公平性与可持续能力的提高,同时会阻碍经济社会的全面、协调和可持续发展。本文运用中国劳动力动态调查数据(CLDS),研究灵活就业人员参加医保的决定因素以及受益归属,从而为新时期医保制度顶层设计提供决策依据。结果表明:一方面,无论是在参保决策还是险种决策阶段,灵活就业人员的健康风险显著正向影响参保状态,说明逆向选择效应显著存在;另一方面,低收入的参保人利用了更多优质的医疗服务,获得了更多的医保基金补偿,并显著改善了健康状况,因此医保发挥了积极的正向分配作用。但是过高的保障水平,在改善医疗可及性的同时会激发道德风险,从而加剧逆向选择问题并阻碍正向分配效应,对更加公平可持续医保制度的建立造成负面影响。     

The perils of working with big data,and a SMALL checklist you can use to recognize them

The use of big data to help explain fluctuations in the broader economy and key business performance indicators is now so commonplace that in some instances it has even begun to rival more traditional measures. Big data sources can very often provide advantages when compared with these more traditional data sources, but with these advantages also come potential pitfalls. We lay out a checklist called SMALL that we have developed in order to help interested parties as they navigate the big data minefield. Based on a set of five questions, the SMALL checklist should help users of big data draw justifiable conclusions and avoid making mistakes in matters of interpretation. To demonstrate, we provide several case studies that demonstrate the subtle nuances of several of these new big data sets and show how the problems they face often closely relate to age-old concerns that more traditional data sources are also forced to tackle.     

Indicator selection and stock return predictability

We propose a momentum-determined indicator-switching (MDIS) strategy, simple and effective, to improve the predictability of stock returns, which can effectively select predictors. Empirical results indicate that the stock return forecasts generated by the MDIS strategy are statistically and economically significant. And we find that super long-term momentum of predictability (SMoP) exists in predictive factors. That is, in a long period of time in the past, the best predictor among a series of factors has best prediction ability in the future. We also design restricted momentum-determined indicator-switching (RMDIS) strategy when considering economic constrain. It is robust for the prediction performance of this strategy using a series of extension and robustness test. Success of the RMDIS strategy is also seen in using technical indicators to forecast stock returns.     

国家科技奖励绩效评价指标体系生成机理探析

本质上，国家科技奖励绩效评价指标体系生成是国家科技奖励绩效基本概念从抽象到具体的操作化过程。遵循“基本概念—评价维度—测量指标”的逻辑理路，探析国家科技奖励绩效评价指标体系的生成机理。研究发现，在国家科技奖励绩效评价指标体系生成过程中，概念操作化是逻辑起点，评价维度解构是逻辑中介，测量指标筛选与赋权是逻辑终点。在生成机理剖析基础上构建的绩效评价指标体系更接近国家科技奖励绩效的本质内涵，更能体现国家科技奖励的核心绩效。