Optimal prevention and elimination of infectious diseases

This article studies the optimal intertemporal allocation of resources devoted to the prevention of deterministic infectious diseases that admit an endemic steady-state. Under general assumptions, the optimal control problem is shown to be formally similar to an optimal growth model with endogenous discounting. The optimal dynamics then depends on the interplay between the epidemiological characteristics of the disease, the labor productivity and the degree of intergenerational equity. Phase diagrams analysis reveals that multiple trajectories, which converge to endemic steady-states with or without prevention or to the elimination of the disease, are feasible. Elimination implies initially a larger prevention than in other trajectories, but after a finite date, prevention is equal to zero. This “sooner-the-better” strategy is shown to be optimal if the pure discount rate is sufficiently low.     

Government Funding Policy Towards Communicable Diseases

The paper investigates the choice of government to offer a grant to a potential entrant aimed at reducing its fixed cost of entry when a monopoly firm provides the needed pharmaceutical drug given the prevalence path of the disease in a dynamic economic framework. The results of present study suggest that government can use a grant to credibly threaten the entry of a new firm into the industry and to promote limit-output pricing by the incumbent firm. The paper therefore suggests that the government policy set includes subsidizing the potential entry of a new firm into an industry manufacturing pharmaceutical drugs for the treatment of a communicable disease. Clearly, foreign aid could also be used as a source of this credible threat. The study also extends the paper by Mechoulan (2007) through the introduction of the government’s choice into the model.

国家区域企业有为的自主创新是中国富强之必选——理性应对中美贸易战的三维思考

中美贸易战实质上是一场国运之争,中央、地方与企业共同推动建立国家区域企业三位一体有为的自主创新体系,是理性应对美国发起的贸易冲击与挑战的必然选择：国家层面有为的自主创新,是保证实现中国富强梦这一国家优先战略目标并确保国家安全的关键措施;区域层面有为的自主创新,是治疗穷堵老区域病并促进不同类型区域持续发展的关键环节;企业层面有为的自主创新,是企业获取长远利益和具有持久生命力的根本保障。治疗"芯痛"还需要中央、地方与企业有所不为,避免陷入重复建设与政企不分等误区。理性选择自主创新方向必然要求中央、地方与企业三个层面有所为有所不为,审慎抉择并协调行动。     

Re-treatment with varenicline is a cost-effective aid for smoking cessation

Objective: One quit attempt with varenicline has been found to be a cost-effective smoking cessation intervention. The purpose of this study was to analyze varenicline’s cost-effectiveness in patients who relapse during or after the first treatment. A comparison was made between re-treatment schema with varenicline and re-treatment schema with bupropion, NRT and unaided cessation, and treatment once with varenicline in a Finnish context.

Methods: The two-quit version of BENESCO Markov model was used to follow a cohort of smokers making up to two quit attempts over a lifetime. The abstinence rates of the interventions were derived from a Cochrane review. Gender- and age-specific data on the incidence and prevalence of five smoking-related diseases were included in the model. Quality-adjusted life-years, total expected costs, and the lifetime cumulative incidence of smoking-related morbidities and mortality were the primary outcomes evaluated.

Results: The study cohort comprised 116,533 smokers who were willing to make a quit attempt. In the lifetime simulation, re-treatment with varenicline yielded 6,150–20,250 extra quitters, depending on the comparator. Among these quitters it was possible to prevent 899–2,972 additional cases of smoking-related diseases, and 395–1,307 deaths attributable to smoking. Re-treatment with varenicline resulted in cost savings of up to 54.9 million Euros. Re-treatment with varenicline dominated all the other smoking cessation interventions used in the analysis. Sensitivity analysis supported the robustness of the base case results.

Limitations: The analysis did not consider adverse events, and included only five major smoking-related diseases, which is a conservative approach, and probably leads to under-estimation of cost-effectiveness of cessation interventions. Furthermore, assumptions of constant relative risks for smoking-related diseases for each smoking status and the proxy values used as efficacy estimates of second quit attempts for other interventions than varenicline are limitations.

Conclusions: A second quitting effort with varenicline is economically justifiable.     

新冠疫情的经济金融影响与应对建议--基于传染病视角的分析

传染病疫情一直威胁着人类的生命健康,对经济社会发展造成较大影响。未来传染病疫情仍然会继续存在,并可能呈多发的趋势。虽然传染病疫情本身难以有效预测,传染病疫情对经济的冲击具有短期、外生性的特点,但是仍然有必要从传染病疫情应对政策方面进行总结研究,形成框架性的政策思路,以有效应对传染病疫情并降低其对经济金融的负面影响。本文结合新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的经济金融影响和应对政策实践,探讨了传染病疫情应对的政策框架建议。     

香石竹丰产种植技术

文章通过对香石竹的栽培生产以及特征,对香石竹在栽培生产中涉及到的土壤、定植、扦插繁殖、组织培养等一系列问题进行了分析,尤其是对香石竹病虫害中枯萎病危害、叶斑病危害、灰霉病危害、病毒病危害、桃蚜危害进行了全面的分析阐述,已达到对香石竹更好的栽培。     

The impact of infectious diseases on hotel occupancy rate based on independent component analysis

The recent global outbreak of Influenza A (H1N1), or the more commonly known as swine flu, has negatively affected the tourism and hospitality industries in many countries. This article reports a study that applied independent component analysis, a novel statistical technique, to separate the dominant factors which determine the levels of hotel occupancy rates in Hong Kong. Empirical findings would provide useful insights on how the dynamic lodging demand reacts to epidemics based on the severity and duration of the events.     

Beyond fragmentary: A proposed measure for travel vaccination concerns

The travel medicine literature points to travelers' concerns as significant promoters of their under-vaccinations. Therefore, this study researches the hitherto understudied concept of vaccination concern and its theoretical scope in the international travel space. It attempts a conceptualization of the concept by delimiting its theoretical scope and proposes a measure for it. An exploratory sequential mixed-methods design was used to conduct four interlocking studies using data from a netnography, field interviews, and surveys among varied international travelers. A scale with six dimensions, comprising safety, efficacy, cost, time, access, and autonomy concerns were revealed. The scale significantly explained mainstream and segments-based tourists' uptake attitudes and behavior for their eligible vaccines. The findings suggest that anti-travel vax sentiments and public vax sentiments despite conceptually similar are considerably distinct. The broad nature of the scale and its prediction of travelers' vaccine uptake make it clinically relevant for tracking and resolving concerns for increased vaccine uptake.     

高强预应力混凝土管桩(PHC桩)打桩工程施工流程及常见质量通病防控措施

简要介绍了高强预应力混凝土管桩(PHC桩)打桩工程的施工流程,并就其常见质量通病提出防控措施。     

《马匹常见疾病防治》教学中案例教学法的实践

案例教学法是从传授已有知识为中心的传统教育转变为着重培养学生创新精神的现代教育方法,而《马匹常见疾病防治》本身也是一门新兴的课程,没有成熟的教学方法。本文介绍了将案例教学法应用于《马匹常见疾病防治》的教学实践。