寿命延长与延迟退休：国际比较与我国实证

基于国际比较的视角,探讨人口寿命延长与延迟退休之间的机制关系,分析国际上人口寿命延长与延迟退休的实践。通过对我国人口寿命延长趋势的研究,在一定的精算假设下,测算延迟退休对我国养老金支付压力的影响,并分析经济、制度等因素变动对测算结果的敏感性。结论表明,我国人口寿命延长趋势显著,延迟退休能够有效缓解老金支付压力,但在不同的性别之间有所差异。经济、制度等因素与延迟退休之间具有一定的替代效应,尽管延迟退休是未来我国应对人口寿命延长的必然选择,但目前建立二者的调整机制条件尚未成熟。     

我国农产品进口保护的经济学分析

目前我国农产品保护的主要措施是关税及关税配额。本文运用图形对这两种进口保护措施进行了经济学分析,指出在国内需求增长的情况下,配额比关税更具贸易保护作用,而且,与绝对配额相比,关税配额更能以较低的社会福利代价获取保护效应。尽管关税配额不失为一种较好的保护手段,但统计结果显示,关税配额并没有起到有效的保护作用。最后分析了在目前条件下我国对农产品进行有效保护的可行途径。     

Do WTO members have more liberal trade policy?

This paper uses 68 measures of trade policy and liberalization to ask if membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is associated with more liberal trade policy. Almost no measures of trade policy are significantly correlated with GATT/WTO membership. Trade liberalizations, when they occur, usually lag GATT entry by many years, and the GATT/WTO often admits countries that are closed and remain closed for years. The exception to the rule is that WTO members tend to have slightly more freedom as judged by the Heritage Foundation's index.     

External currency pricing and the East Asian crisis

This paper provides a quantitative investigation of the East Asian crisis of 1997-1999. We stress two essential features of the crisis. First, the crisis was a regional phenomenon; the depth and severity of the crisis were exacerbated by a large decline in regional demand. Second, the predominance of the US dollar in the pricing of export goods in Asia (which we document empirically) led to a powerful internal propagation effect of the crisis within the region, contributing greatly to the decline in regional trade flows. We construct a multi-country macroeconomic model which contains these two features and show that it can do a good job in accounting for the response of the main macroeconomic aggregates in Korea, Malaysia and Thailand during the crisis. A key advantage of our model is that it can explain the very slow response of exports to the large real exchange rate depreciations that took place during the crisis. Without the regional dimension and dollar pricing of exports, we find that the model fails to account for the depth and severity of the crisis.     

How does new business formation affect regional development? Introduction to the special issue

This paper gives an overview of the empirical research on the effects of new business formation on regional development and introduces the contributions to this special issue. The effects of new businesses on regional development emerge over a longer time-period of up to ten years. A main focus of the contributions to this special issue is on the distribution of these effects over time and on the magnitude of the overall effect. While the basic pattern found for the different countries and regions is quite similar, the magnitude of the overall effect can be different and may even be negative. There are strong indications, that the type of entrants plays an important role in this respect.

界定国际贸易与国内贸易之法律与实务审视

我国“入世”以来外贸发展势头迅猛,进出口规模逐年扩大,到2005年外贸总额已经突破万亿大关,成为仅次于美国和德国的世界第三大贸易国。同时,国内的贸易商及生产企业面临的内外贸市场环境也发生了很大变化,两个市场之间的界限逐渐模糊,很多国内企业在进行国内贸易时日益倾向于使用标准的国际贸易术语,如FOB、CFR和CIF等,这不仅给国际贸易术语的国内应用提出了特殊的要求,也引起在新的贸易形势下如何界定国际贸易与国内贸易的区别的问题。甚至在美国这样的贸易强国,也有学者惊呼,“真正的跨境贸易(Cross-border Trade)正在减少甚至消失”。面对国际贸易领域这一新现象,文章将通过案例分析,从实务与法律的双重视角来探讨该问题。     

次区域经济合作与边境民族地区可持续发展

中国参与的次区域经济合作对边境民族地区可持续发展产生了直接的影响。文章就次区域经济合作的情况,进行了边境民族地区次区域合作的障碍分析,以民族地区经济可持续发展为着眼点,提出加强次区域各国和地区的多边协商,制定共同的次区域可持续发展战略;调整产业结构,实施绿色产业经济计划,促进产业结构升级;改善贸易和投资环境,促进贸易和投资的便利化;积极谋求国际经济组织各方面的支持等四个方面的对策。     

国际贸易与国际直接投资的三种关系——芒德尔贸易与投资替代模型引发的思考

文章通过对著名经济学家罗伯特·芒德尔的贸易与投资替代模型的分析与评价,根据全球经济一体化背景下国际贸易与国际直接投资之间出现的新变化,揭示了两者之间的三种关系:替代关系、互补互促关系和相互融合关系。     

基于能源消耗的我国国际贸易实证研究

本文通过应用设计的投入产出模型考察了1997年我国国际贸易36个部门商品的能耗密集度,计算和比较了各类商品的进出口能源消耗量,从能源消耗角度考察了我国的进出口贸易。结果表明,1997年我国出口总的能耗量为37068.53万吨标准煤,进口能耗量为39036.25万吨标准煤,比出口多1967.72万吨标准煤。贸易商品中流入和流出的能耗分别占全国同期总能耗的28.25%和26.83%。从能源消耗角度看,1997年我国是一个净进口国,且进口单位产值的商品中包含的能耗量比出口单位产值商品中包含的能耗量多27%左右。这些研究结果对于我国的可持续发展和环境与贸易问题的改善有重要的参考意义。     

中日韩三国运输业服务贸易国际竞争力之比较研究

随着经济全球化的发展,世界各国之间的贸易联系日趋紧密。作为国际贸易桥梁和纽带的运输业服务贸易在服务贸易中也占据了越来越重要的地位。本文在对中日韩运输业服务贸易进行了简单的介绍后,运用近五年来三国运输业服务贸易额、服务贸易总额等基础数据,通过国际市场占有率、RCA指数、TC指数三个指标进行实证分析,从不同侧面比较了三国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力情况,得出了我国运输业与日韩存在巨大差距的结论。并据此分析了我国运输业存在的问题,提出了提高我国运输业服务贸易国际竞争力的相应策略。