互联网金融发展提升了区域创新效率吗——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

基于2011—2018年全国30个省份（西藏地区和港澳台地区因数据缺少剔除）的面板数据,利用随机前沿模型测度中国区域创新效率。在此基础上构建动态空间面板模型对互联网金融发展与我国区域创新效率提升的关系进行实证分析,结果表明互联网金融发展与区域创新效率均存在显著的空间集聚特征。进一步通过中介效应检验发现,互联网金融发展主要通过加速金融发展与人力资本积累等对区域创新效率产生正向影响,该影响也表现出显著的空间溢出效应。     

Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth

Demographic structure could affect economic growth through many channels. However, little is known about how demographic structure affects economic growth since no study has examined an extensive collection of channels through which demographic structure could affect economic growth in a single context. This paper overcomes this limitation by examining 45 potential mediating variables between demographic structure and economic growth. A causal search algorithm is used to identify channels through which demographic structure affects economic growth. Our results suggest that demographic structure affects economic growth differently between developed and developing countries. For developed countries, we find that an increase in the share of middle-aged workers has a positive effect on economic growth through institutions, investment and education channels. On the other hand, an increase in the share of the senior population has a negative effect on economic growth through institutions and investment channels. For developing countries, we find (but with weak evidence) that an increase in the share of young workers has a negative effect on economic growth through investment, financial market development and trade channels.     

互联网背景下共享型领导对团队创造力的促进作用研究:边界行为视角

互联网改变了人与人之间以及企业与企业之间的关系。创造力成为企业适应互联网时代的关键。基于边界理论视角,尝试从团队层面揭示互联网背景下共享型领导对团队创造力的促进作用。以北京和乌鲁木齐等地的30家企业128个团队共510位成员为样本,运用结构方程模型对样本数据进行分析,结果表明:共享型领导对团队创造力有显著正向影响;边界强化和边界缓冲行为在共享型领导和团队创造力之间起部分中介作用,尤其是边界跨越行为通过边界强化行为和边界缓冲行为对团队创造力起作用。研究结论为认识互联网时代团队创造力提供了新视角。     

Knowledge matching in the technology outsourcing context of online innovation intermediaries

This paper focuses on innovation matchmaking by online innovation intermediaries that operate as technology outsourcing services. These services connect employers wishing to commission individuals to complete technical activities to individuals with knowledge to undertake the project. We present three new metrics based on the statistical mechanics of complex networks to assess forms of knowledge matches between the knowledge required by employers’ projects and the knowledge offered by service providers. Based upon the results, we identify several challenges open innovation intermediaries, employers, and providers face: structuring knowledge to identify providers who can provide solutions beyond the immediate exigencies of the problem, choosing a provider among many potential matches, and choosing an online innovation intermediary when several suitable alternatives exist. The metrics provide insight into potential solutions to these challenges. We conclude with recommendations to improve the service offerings of online innovation intermediaries.     

“双11”促销活动中羊群效应的博弈分析

2013年天猫"双11"促销活动的销售额突破了350亿。这种现象的背后是羊群效应的呈现,对促销活动起到了推波助澜的作用。文章运用博弈理论对此现象进行分析。结果表明,不同博弈情形对羊群效应的作用不同,羊群效应的形成需要一定的条件。文中共列出了网民之间、商户之间、网民与商户之间三种市场主体的7种博弈情形,不同的博弈情形可运用在不同的场景中。其中博弈情形1为大家都参与,适用于优质产品的无差异化推广销售中;博弈情形2为大家都不参与,适用于假冒、伪劣、盗版、水货等产品的打击和阻隔;博弈情形3、4、6为部分人参与,适用于特定产品、特定人群的差异化销售中;博弈情形5属于参与和不参与均可,适用在商家的专卖连锁店、加盟商户或各分、子公司的联合经营中;博弈情形7属于混合策略,在竞争充分的完全市场竞争结构下出现概率较大。     

Flexibility at the Margin and Labor Market Volatility in OECD Countries*

We study the business‐cycle behavior of segmented labor markets with flexibility at the margin (e.g., just affecting fixed‐term contracts). We present a matching model with temporary and permanent jobs (i) where there is a gap in the firing costs associated with these types of jobs and (ii) where there are restrictions in the creation and duration of fixed‐term contracts. We show that a labor market with ``flexibility at the margin'' increases the unemployment volatility with respect to one that is fully regulated. This analysis yields new insights into the interpretation of the recent volatility changes witnessed in the OECD area.     

互联网发展、技术市场与高技术产业技术创新效率——基于SBM-熵权-Tobit模型的实证检验

以技术市场发展指标作为中介变量,构建互联网发展对技术创新效率的面板回归模型,实证检验互联网发展对高技术产业技术创新带来的直接和间接影响效果。结果表明：(1)2009—2019年,技术创新效率在[0.1932,0.4043]内,且上升趋势明显,成果转化阶段效率明显高于知识生产阶段;(2)从理论方面推导互联网发展对于技术创新效率的直接影响,以及通过技术市场厚度和流畅度两种中介路径的间接影响,提出假设1～假设3;(3)实证结果表明,三个理论假设在研究样本中均成立。互联网快速发展不仅对高技术产业的技术创新效率具有直接的正向驱动效应,而且通过市场厚度和市场流畅度两个中介变量产生的间接效应均显著为正值。在东中西三个经济区,表现出明显的异质性。“互联网+技术市场”战略是提升高技术产业创新资源优化布局发展的重要方向。     

互联网能力与知识能力交互效应对知识创造绩效的传导机制:一个被中介的调节效应模型

整合资源基础观、知识基础观和动态能力理论,探讨互联网背景下互联网能力、知识能力两种企业内部因素交互作用对知识创造绩效的影响过程,尤其关注了具有前瞻性与反应性特征的战略柔性在这一过程中的重要作用,从而构建了一个被中介的调节效应模型。基于我国399家企业调研数据发现,互联网能力、知识能力均对战略柔性有显著正向影响;互联网能力与知识能力的交互作用通过战略柔性的中介机制促进企业知识创造绩效提升,即存在被中介的调节效应。在理论上,丰富了资源基础观和知识基础观在组织竞争优势构建方面的前因研究,在实践上,为处于互联网背景下的企业有效提升知识创造绩效提供了实践参考。     

平台生态系统下我国中小制造企业与互联网融合发展路径研究

随着云计算、大数据、物联网等互联技术兴起,互联网平台逐渐成为我国中小制造企业生存与发展的土壤。基于平台生态系统理论与价值共创理论,遵循“主体互动融合—跨业价值重塑—环境协同共生”基本框架,探究我国中小制造企业与互联网融合的内涵及特征。运用嵌入型多案例研究方法,探究我国中小制造企业与互联网融合发展模式,提炼归纳出我国中小制造企业与互联网融合发展的3种路径。     

Investor Pessimism and the German Stock Market: Exploring Google Search Queries

We analyze the relationship of retail investor sentiment and the German stock market by introducing four distinct investor pessimism indices (IPIs) based on selected aggregate Google search queries. We assess the predictive power of weekly changes in sentiment captured by the IPIs for contemporaneous and future DAX returns, volatility and trading volume. The indices are found to have individually varying, but overall remarkably high explanatory power. An increase in retail investor pessimism is accompanied by decreasing contemporaneous market returns and an increase in volatility and trading volume. Future returns tend to increase while future volatility and trading volume decrease. The outcome is in line with the conjecture of correction effects. Overall, the results are well in line with modern investor sentiment theory.