对《物流术语》中托盘概念的商榷

托盘是物流中使用广泛的集装单元器具,在物流系统中发挥着重要作用。本文从我国物流生产中使用的托盘类别介绍入手,分析了在我国广泛使用的五种托盘的结构特点、使用场合和各自优缺点,主要分析和研究了《物流术语》中托盘概念描述的准确之处和欠缺之处,对于物流行业标准提出了质疑,本文必将对进一步准确界定什么是托盘起到积极的推进作用。     

A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.     

Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL

This study investigates escalation effects in the Australian Football League (AFL). We use a sample of players selected in the AFL player draft (National Draft) between 1986 and 2002, and test for escalation effects by examining whether a player's draft order affects his subsequent utilisation by the club to which he was drafted. Utilisation is represented with measures of games played and tenure. Limited evidence of an escalation effect is found. Any relation between a player's draft order and his games played and tenure at the club to which he was drafted is concentrated in the early years of his career, and this apparent relation can be explained by the information about a player's ability that is contained in the player's draft order and by incentives for clubs to provide greater playing experience to higher ability players. Escalation effects in the AFL competition are therefore much weaker than have been found in studies of the US National Basketball Association (NBA). It is suggested that differences in the structure of the competitions may explain why the escalation effect in the AFL would be weaker than in the NBA.     

Inference with dependent data using cluster covariance estimators

This paper presents an inference approach for dependent data in time series, spatial, and panel data applications. The method involves constructing t and Wald statistics using a cluster covariance matrix estimator (CCE). We use an approximation that takes the number of clusters/groups as fixed and the number of observations per group to be large. The resulting limiting distributions of the t and Wald statistics are standard t and F distributions where the number of groups plays the role of sample size. Using a small number of groups is analogous to ‘fixed-b’ asymptotics of [Kiefer and Vogelsang, 2002] and [Kiefer and Vogelsang, 2005] (KV) for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent inference. We provide simulation evidence that demonstrates that the procedure substantially outperforms conventional inference procedures.     

Particle filters for continuous likelihood evaluation and maximisation

In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the unknown parameters under rather general conditions. The approach advocated is fast and robust, and it avoids many of the pitfalls associated with current techniques based upon importance sampling. We assess the performance of the method by considering a linear state space model, comparing the results with the Kalman filter, which delivers the true likelihood. We also apply the method to a non-Gaussian state space model, the stochastic volatility model, finding that the approach is efficient and effective. Applications to continuous time finance models and latent panel data models are considered. Two different multivariate approaches are proposed. The neoclassical growth model is considered as an application.     

LOD技术在三维地形图实时可视化中的应用研究

随着计算机科学、计算机图形学和现代测绘科学的迅速发展,三维数字地形图的研究与实现越来越成为人们研究和关注的热点,要实现三维地形图的实时可视化,应用LOD技术的研究又是非常必要的,如何针对大数据量三维地形图建立不同细节层次的模型和优化其算法又成为要研究关键技术。本文重点对LOD技术的原理、分类和应用进行比较与探讨。     

基于资源开发的综合运输体系需求分析

在对可开发资源分类的基础上,对各类资源对综合运输体系的运输需求进行分析,各类资源开发特点决定了对综合运输系统的需求。大规模矿产资源开采普遍具有较长运距和较大运量的特点,应在通道规划中给予足够运力支持。生物资源的运输具有季节性、运输分散性以及单行流动性。旅游资源对综合交通体系的要求集中在出行的舒适性和可达性等方面。     

我国危险品物流管理对策研究

通过对我国危险品物流的现状分析,指出了加强危险品物流管理的必要性,并阐述了加强危险品物流管理的意义。在对国外危险品物流管理方法进行总结的基础上,分析了我国政府和危险品物流企业在危险品物流管理中的作用和相互关系,并提出了加强危险品物流管理的一些具体对策和措施。     

Fiscal deficits and current account deficits

Recent fiscal stimulus packages depend for their effectiveness on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, higher fiscal deficits can have problematic implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50% of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75% for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100% for a small open economy.     

Liberty and the Post‐utilitarian Society

Utilitarian foundations for limited government are shaky insofar as they assume rational and consistent individuals. Recently economists’ assumption of rational actors has come under sustained attack. Behavioural economics has suggested that people are plagued by irrational biases and inconsistencies. These developments have led to a post‐utilitarianism which is held to justify paternalistic interventions by the state via ‘sin taxes’, direct bans or new obligations. Individual responsibility is seriously undermined, as is faith in markets. Supporters of individual freedom need to move away from utilitarian reasoning, reassert core values of autonomy and responsibility, and define strict limits on the scope of government intervention.