贫困、经济增长与脱贫时间:基于中国城镇居民调查数据的分析

贫困指数是衡量社会总体贫困程度的指标,在众多的贫困指数中.本文选择具有良好性能的瓦特指数和由此派生出来的脱贫时间指数,分析了我国城镇上个世纪90年代以来的贫困变化趋势.研究发现,城镇贫困在1997年达到高峰,然后逐渐缓和;贫困人口的收入增长在初期能使脱贫时间迅速下降,但边际效果是递减的;贫困人口之间的收入分配不平等延长了脱贫时间:如果贫困人口的初始收入增加,会明显降低脱贫时间.     

Riding the Ever-Rolling Stream: Time and the Ontology of Violent Conflict

In this paper, we examine the ways in which the passage of time is dealt with in econometric studies of violent conflict and civil war with empirical attention to the dynamics of ethnic conflict. We argue that the mainstream approach to econometric studies of civil war is based on a time-invariant ontology and that this is not an appropriate or adequate way of capturing the causal patterns of violent conflict. Based analysis of replication datasets using structural break analysis and rolling windows, we show how careful attention to the passage of time reveals important macro-historical changes in the coefficients on ethnic diversity in explaining conflict incidence. We conclude that econometric studies of civil war need to pay more careful attention to the limitations on the generalizations that they draw through attention to the passage of time and better iteration with qualitative and historical studies.     

Choice of Portfolios and Fee under Principal -Agent Framework with Uncertain Exit - Time

In the real world, an investor is usually not sure about when he or she will exit investment. She can only make estimation prior. With the growth of the scale of open - end funds which can be subscribed and redeemed at any time. Investors began to pay more attention on problems such as whether the fee is reasonable, the payment can encourage the agent or not. Others would consider if the portfolio that the agent chooses is the best one. This paper considers the principal - agent problem with uncertain exit - time under two cases： the action of the agent is observable and unobservable. We derive close - form expressions of the optimal portfolio and the best fee. Finally an empirical analysis is given based on the data of some open - end funds in China.     

A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment

Two important empirical features of US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that it seems to rise faster during recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, we put forward a new time series model and evaluate its empirical performance. We find that the model describes the data rather well and that it outperforms related competitive models on various measures of fit.     

论税收的时效性

时效性是税收强制性在时间上的体现，是税法赋予的一种规定性，是国家财政收支及时稳定的重要保证，是依法治税的必然要求，是衡量税务机关征管水平的基本依据。不论是税收法治的严肃性，还是国家各项事业急需财政资金的现实，都迫切需求提高税收的时效性。及时有效地组织好财政收入。     

Mean squared error of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor in an orthogonal finite discrete spectrum linear regression model

The mean squared error (MSE) of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor in an orthogonal finite discrete spectrum linear regression model is derived and a comparison with the MSE of the best linear unbiased predictor in this model is made. It is shown that under weak conditions these two mean square errors are asymptotically the same.     

Distance in time between transition economies and the European Union

The time distance methodology used offers a new perspective to the problem, an additional statistical measure, and a presentation tool for policy analysis and debate readily understood by policy makers, media and general public. Disparity between the analysed transition economies and EU countries is considerably smaller for other indicators than for GDP per capita. Compared with Ireland, Portugal and Greece Slovenia was in 1995 in 13 cases behind (but time lag of Slovenia never exceeded 10 years) and in 13 cases ahead of them. Sicherl (1997a) discusses application of S-distance to time series regressions, models, forecasting and monitoring. First version received: October 1995/final version received: April 1998     

一种利用短时DFT分析实现全数字2DPSK接收机解调的新算法

本文提出了一种简单而实用的利用短时DFT（ST-DFT）分析实现全数字2DPSK接收机的解调算法。该算法对由多谱勒效应引起的时变频率漂移具有鲁棒性。由于该算法是通过检测在载频处的瞬时能量谱的跳变来实现2DPSK信号的解调，所以该算法不需要进行专门的载波相位恢复、符号定时，且具有较好的抗噪性能，实现起来简单。     

未确认融资费用的实际利率摊销法研究——资金时间价值轴上的全新思路

本文从财务管理时间价值角度阐述未确认融资费用如何合理分摊的问题,提出了与一般会计实务教材标准解法完全相反的思路,得到了相同的效果,并对两种解题思路作了详细的比较分析,并在此基础上提出有关会计计量的若干假说。     

Comparing the accuracy of several network-based COVID-19 prediction algorithms

Researchers from various scientific disciplines have attempted to forecast the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The proposed epidemic prediction methods range from basic curve fitting methods and traffic interaction models to machine-learning approaches. If we combine all these approaches, we obtain the Network Inference-based Prediction Algorithm (NIPA). In this paper, we analyse a diverse set of COVID-19 forecast algorithms, including several modifications of NIPA. Among the algorithms that we evaluated, the original NIPA performed best at forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei, China and in the Netherlands. In particular, we show that network-based forecasting is superior to any other forecasting algorithm.