中美能源库兹涅茨曲线研究——基于正交偏最小二乘法

中国与美国能源库兹涅茨曲线是存在的,中国将在人均GDP达到2万美元左右到达能源消费总量拐点,产业结构变化影响较弱,经济危机反而刺激了能源消费;美国在2007年前后已经到达拐点,第三产业产值与工业比值每提高1个百分点,会减少大约1百万吨标准煤,每次经济危机会减少当年3千万吨标准煤。通过对比可知,目前中国属于高能耗模式,不利于可持续发展,应对经济危机应发挥市场自身的调节作用,从而达到优胜劣汰实现结构转型。     

Pollution and informal economy

In this study, we investigate the relationship between the size of the informal economy and the level of environmental pollution/energy use. To this end, we first use different indicators of environmental pollution along with a measure of energy use intensity in a panel dataset consisting of 152 countries over the period 1999–2009 and empirically examine the relationship between pollution and the shadow economy. The estimation results show that there is an inverse-U relationship between the size of the informal economy and environmental pollution, that is, small and large sizes of the informal economy are associated with lower environmental pollution and medium levels of informality are associated with higher levels of environmental pollution. Next, we build a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model to suggest an economic mechanism for this observation. Our model identifies two channels through which informality might affect environmental pollution: The scale effect, whereby a larger (smaller) informal economy size is associated with a lower (higher) level of environmental pollution, and the deregulation effect, whereby a larger (smaller) informal economy is associated with higher (lower) pollution levels. As these two effects work in opposite directions, the changing relative strength of one with respect to the informal sector size creates the inverted-U relationship between pollution indicators and informality.     

Modelling the nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions from oil and economic growth

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from oil and GDP, using panel data from 1971 to 2007 of 98 countries. Previous studies have discussed the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, but little attention has been paid to the existence of a nonlinear relationship between these two variables. We argue that there exists a threshold effect between the two variables: different levels of economic growth bear different impacts on oil CO2 emissions. Our empirical results do not support the EKC hypothesis. Additionally, the results of short-term analyses of static and dynamic panel threshold estimations suggest the efficacy of a double-threshold (three-regime) model. In the low economic growth regime, economic growth negatively affects oil CO2 emissions growth; in the medium economic growth regime, however, economic growth positively impacts oil CO2 emissions growth; and in the high economic growth regime, the impact of economic growth is insignificant.     

可持续发展的代际资源管理

资源在代际之间的永续利用是可持续发展的核心问题。这一问题在当代人利益激励和后代人主体缺位的条件下是不可能自然实现的。所以,对世代赖以生存的自然资源进行公平合理的代际管理和分配,是实现可持续发展的必由之路。     

影响我国环境库兹涅茨曲线的外贸与环境政策分析

环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)体现了一国经济增长与环境污染的关系.本文以1990～2005年我国工业污染的数据为基础,描绘出我国EKC是"N"字型波浪式上升的,阐述了产生这一特点的贸易政策和环境政策的影响因素,肯定了政府的环保政策对于环境恶化的控制效果,但认为政府的直接干预只是协调经济增长与环境污染关系的外部手段,提高经济运行效率才是解决问题的根本途径.     

Transboundary Externalities in the Environmental Transition Hypothesis

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is a hypothesis which implies that it is possible to grow out of environmental degradation. Most theoretical models of the EKC relation have not accounted for transboundary and intergenerational externalities nor have empirical studies provided evidence that validates an inverted U shaped relation between environmental degradation and economic growth for pollution problems where the effects are far-displaced or are long-delayed.This paper integrates the theory of transboundary externalities into the most common theoretical framework applied to the EKC hypothesis. It shows that where a significant proportion of the environmental impacts of economic activity occurs outside the territories in which those activities take place, the de-linking of growth and environmental degradation is less likely to happen. This proposition is demonstrated by assuming that decisionmakers have a Nash-type non cooperative strategic behavior.     

从开放宏观的视角看环境污染问题:一个综述

在全球化背景下,伴随着国际间的要素流动,环境问题越来越多地被赋予了全球化的内容。本文将环境与增长、环境与贸易、环境与就业、环境与人口迁移等研究文献纳入到一个开放宏观分析框架中,通过文献研究发现,国际分工使"南—北"之间存在了多纬度的"环境不平等":首先,环境与经济增长问题先后经历了三个发展阶段,即罗马俱乐部提出的"增长极限说"、环境库兹涅茨曲线假说、贸易与环境库兹涅茨曲线假说相关性的争论。随着研究的推进,环境与增长问题越来越类似于一枚硬币的两面,难以同时兼得,但是,由于国际分工模式的差异,发展中国家却为发达国家提供了"污染储藏地"。其次,虽然环境规制使企业损失了部分"棕色"就业,但是环境保护同样能够创造"绿色"就业,然而,在国际分工背景下,环境保护是否有利于发展中国家的整体就业还存在着争议。最后,环境恶化已经导致一些国家出现了"环境难民"以及随之而来的人口迁移。到2050年,全世界由气候变化引起的人口迁移很可能达到5千万至7亿。然而,穷国和富国的环境压力和迁移能力却不尽相同,从某种程度上,这也是国际分工产生的间接影响,但是,关于这一问题的研究还十分有限。     

熨平"环境库兹涅茨曲线"的政策趋向研究

大多数发达国家在经济增长阶段，环境和经济增长显示出环境库兹涅茨曲线特征，研究了我国熨平环境库兹涅茨曲线的必要性及可能性，并提出熨平环境库兹涅茨曲线的政策趋向。     

经济增长与环境保护共赢发展研究——以湖南省为例

当前中国经济快速增长与环境资源供给步调不协调的问题日益突出,具体表现为经济高速增长的同时,也付出了很大的资源环境代价。文章通过研究湖南经济发展的环境现状,探讨了环境恶化对湖南经济造成的影响,并提出了改善环境污染现状的相关措施,指出不仅要提高环保技术水平,产业结构的调整和环境保护政策也要双管齐下,要走基于经济增长与环境保护共赢发展的战略模式,真正做到"环境—经济"的协调和可持续发展。     

贵州省居民收入差距分析

采用基尼系数、阿鲁瓦利亚指数、库兹涅茨指数和不良指数等衡量收入分配状况的指标,分别分析了近几年贵州省城乡之间、城镇内部、农村内部、行业之间和地区之间的居民收入差距。分析结果显示,贵州省行业之间和地区之间的收入分配高度平均,城镇居民内部和农村居民内部的收入分配大致合理,而城乡之间居民收入差距过大,并呈现扩大趋势。