How much can we trust China’s investment statistics?

Abstract

Building upon recent research into the underestimation of China’s official final consumption expenditure, this paper investigates the quality of China’s investment data. We strictly follow the official method to estimate the annual gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) expenditure from 2004 to 2012, and the resulting figures are significantly different from the official statistics. This implies that the ‘total investment in fixed assets’ data, which are the primary source for the estimation of GFCF, grossly exaggerate actual investments, and that the official GFCF figures are not, strictly speaking, independently estimated, as they are purported to be. We deduce that the official gross capital formation figure is more or less a residual item obtained by subtracting final consumption and net exports from the official GDP figure that is calculated based on the production-cum-income approach. As a result, the underestimation of China’s consumption expenditure automatically translates into overestimation of investment expenditure. We conclude that China’s official consumption and investment statistics cannot be trusted as the basis for policy discussions and academic research.     

创业失败经验对连续创业意愿的影响——创业失败学习与市场动荡性的作用

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On the existence of the ex post symmetric random entry model

This paper studies symmetry among countably infinitely many agents who randomly enter into a stochastic process, one for each period. Upon entry, they observe only the current period signal and try to draw inference about the underlying state governing the stochastic process. We show that there exist random entry models under which agents are ex post symmetric. That is, all agents have identical posterior belief about the underlying states, although they are not ex ante symmetric. The form of the posterior belief is uniquely pinned down by ex post symmetry and a stationarity condition. Our results provide a common prior foundation for the model studied in Liu and Skrzypacz (2014).     

综放工作面动态分次加架技术实践

针对一些不规则布置的综放工作面,介绍了当工作面长度变长时,采取不同的布置及加架方式的优缺点。这对于一些储量较少,地质条件复杂的矿井具有很好的借鉴意义。     

创业企业何以提高创新绩效——基于创业学习与商业模式创新协同联动视角的QCA方法

以150个创业企业为样本，基于创业学习和商业模式创新理论，运用模糊集定性比较分析方法（fsQCA），探究经验学习、认知学习、新颖型商业模式创新和效率型商业模式创新对创新绩效的影响路径及机制。研究发现，存在新颖型商业模式创新等4条创新绩效产出关键路径；相较于效率型商业模式创新，新颖型商业模式创新在关键路径中更容易提高创新绩效；利用QCA方法证实了影响创业企业创新绩效的组态内部各要素之间的替代性。结论丰富了创新绩效产出内部机制，可为创业企业提高创新绩效提供指导和借鉴。     

Auditors' Responses to Workload Imbalance and the Impact on Audit Quality*

Using detailed data for fieldwork hours and audit hours by rank from audit engagements in Korea, we examine whether audits conducted under workload imbalance, proxied by busy‐season audits, impair audit quality, and how auditors adjust staff assignments for busy‐season audits. We generally find that busy‐season audits are associated with lower audit quality, and that audit firms reduce the involvement of senior auditors during busy‐season audits. In addition, the greater the involvement of senior auditors and junior auditors, the lesser the deterioration in audit quality. Finally, although there is no increase in interim audits in response to workload imbalance during busy seasons, increasing interim audits can mitigate the negative impact of busy‐season audits on audit quality. Our results are relevant to auditors and regulators, who have expressed concerns about the adverse effects of workload imbalance on audit quality.     

Performance and learning in an ambiguous environment: A study of cryptocurrency traders

We investigate the performance and learning ability of traders in an environment governed by ambiguity, such as the cryptocurrency market. Using a profit decomposition methodology, we find significant cross-sectional and temporal heterogeneity in performance. Traders do not learn to progressively increase the magnitude of returns; however, they are able to improve on their ability to realise profits as a mechanism of adaptation to survive through ambiguity. This adaptation increases as traders progress through their career. Moreover, we find evidence in support of the gambler’s fallacy. We argue that learning in ambiguous environments has limitations, allowing traders primarily to survive.     

The contractionary effects of tax shocks on productivity: An empirical and theoretical analysis

I analyze the effects of tax policy changes on US Total Factor Productivity. VAR estimates show that permanent and exogenous tax increases have strong, permanent, and negative effects on TFP which represent about 80% of change in output following the tax increase. I then build a DSGE model which has learning-by-doing and endogenous TFP evolution. The benchmark model is able to replicate the empirical impulse responses. However, when I calibrate the model as in the literature, the effect of taxes on TFP is substantially less elastic than in the data. I argue that this divergence may arise because tax changes labeled as exogenous can give spurious results or because of a mis-specified model.     

Creating competitive advantage: Linking perspectives of organization learning,innovation behavior and intellectual capital

Drawing on learning theories and the intellectual capital (IC) theory, organizational learning research has discussed the benefits of searching for market opportunities and maintaining a competitive advantage in dynamic environments. To explain organizational performance and survival, the previous literature has focused mainly on what organizations do, but it has failed to address how and what they should do. This study argues that if hotel management is open-minded about exploratory and exploitative learning, it can open the door to capturing opportunity and competitive advantage through increased innovation behavior and human capital accumulation. Further, IC theory has also confirmed that social capital and relational capital will strengthen the relationship between innovation behavior and human capital. This study analyzes data from 595 hotel managers and finds strong support for the proposed hypotheses.