旅游规划三元论--中国现代旅游规划的定向·定性·定位·定型

以创立中国现代旅游规划学科领域为议题,提出旅游规划三元论,从实践导向、观念形成、专业组成、人才教育等方面,论证旅游规划领域的定向、定性、定位、定型,以及旅游规划学科领域的转变与对策.     

Beliefs,payoffs, information: On the robustness of the BDP property in models with endogenous beliefs

Neeman (2004) and Heifetz and Neeman (2006) have shown that, in auctions with incomplete information about payoffs, full surplus extraction is only possible if agents’ beliefs about other agents are fully informative about their own payoff parameters. They argue that the set of incomplete-information models with common priors that satisfy this so-called BDP property (“beliefs determine preferences”) is negligible. In contrast, we show that, in models with finite-dimensional abstract type spaces, the set of belief functions with this property is topologically generic in the set of all belief functions. Our result implies genericity of (non-common or common) priors with the BDP property.     

Using GIS to visualise and evaluate student travel behaviour

Using GIS to evaluate travel behaviour is an important technique to increase our understanding of the relationship between accessibility and transport demand. In this paper, the activity space concept was used to identify the nature of participation in activities (or lack of it) amongst a group of students using a 2 day travel-activity diary. Three different indicators such as the number of unique locations visited, average daily distance travelled, and average daily activity duration were used to measure the size of activity spaces. These indicators reflect levels of accessibility, personal mobility, and the extent of participation, respectively. Multiple regression analyses were used to assess the impacts of students socio-economic status and the spatial characteristics of home location. Although no differences were found in the levels of accessibility and the extent of participation measures, home location with respect to a demand responsive transport (DRT) service was found to be the most important determinant of their mobility patterns. Despite being able to travel longer distances, students who live outside of the DRT service area were found to be temporally excluded from some opportunities. Student activity spaces were also visualised within a GIS environment and a spatial analysis was conducted to underpin the evaluation of the performance of the DRT. This approach was also used to identify the activity spaces of individuals that are geographically excluded from the service. Evaluation of these results indicated that although the service currently covers areas of high demand, 90% of the activity spaces remained un-served by the DRT service. Using this data six new routes were designed to meet the coverage goal of public transport based on a measure of network impedance based on inverse activity density. Following assessment of public transport service coverage, the study was extended using a spatial multi criteria evaluation (SMCE) technique to assess the effect of service provision on patronage.     

Gender,leisure and sport: a case-study of young people of South Asian descent

Questions of embodiment are to be crucial in shaping the dynamics of social inclusion and exclusion. To explore the way that these dynamics shape the use of leisure spaces, this paper examines the mediation of Carnage UK events, organised mass student excursions around spaces of nightlife that have proved controversial in many British towns and cities. It is suggested in this paper that the discursive framing of Carnage UK events reflects specific social anxieties about disorderly bodies, invoking distinctions based on classed, sexed and gendered notions of respectability and desirability. Highlighting themes relating to carnivalesque and excessive bodies, it is concluded that conflicts over the use of leisure spaces need to be understood in relation to representations of specific social groups as figures of both desire and disgust. In making this argument, the paper alights on the student as a key figure in contemporary debates concerning nightlife, leisure and consumption.     

河南省“三生空间”分类与时空格局分析

[目的]"三生空间"是十八大提出的政策性指导,对河南省进行三生空间研究可为该省优化国土空间开发和"三线划定"提供参考依据。[方法]文章在探索"三生空间"理论内涵的基础上,遵循土地的多功能性原则,依据国家土地利用现状分类标准,构建了三生空间分类体系及其评价标准,运用地理信息系统中的空间分析功能揭示了1990—2015年河南省三生空间的格局及其演变特征,并对其进行了可视化表达。[结果](1)生产空间主要分布在河南省的中北部地区,南阳市也有零星分布; 2015年每个省辖市的生产生态空间明显比1990年范围有所缩小,郑州市最为明显。其扩张区域主要分布在河南省中部地区,减少区域主要分布在各省辖市的城镇地区,其中信阳南部山地有较大区域生产空间呈减少状态。(2)生活空间主要分布在平原地区,两期生活空间基本保持一致,但是生活生产空间2015年较1990年有较明显的增加。扩大区域主要是生活生产空间,分布在各省辖市的城镇地区,郑州市扩张面积最大。(3)生态空间主要分布在西部山地和南部山地区域,两期生态空间格局基本一致,呈现出"西高、南高、东低"的格局特征。扩大区域主要集中在崂山东西两坡、伏牛山、大别山等区域;减少区域主要在嵩山、黄河沿岸区域、桐柏山、信阳南部丘陵区域、崂山大部区域。[结论]经济的快速发展、城镇化进程的加快和人口的大量增加是河南省三生空间发生变化的主要驱动力,其中郑州市是变化最大一个地区,这是由郑州市的政治和经济地位决定的。     

京津冀区域“三生空间”分类评价与格局演变

［目的］国土空间是社会经济发展的载体,是人们生存和发展的依托。识别和定量刻画“三生”功能空间结构及其演变规律是进行国土空间结构优化的基础。［方法］研究引入土地三生功能评分矩阵,通过GIS空间分析和可视化技术,基于土地利用覆被数据,对1900—2015年京津冀区域三生空间格局演变进行了研究。［结果］京津冀区域三生空间分布格局具有较强的规律性。生产空间主要分布在东南平原区,生活空间主要分布在北京、天津、石家庄、唐山、廊坊等都市圈,生态空间主要分布燕山—太行山山区。1990—2015年京津冀区域生产空间保持稳定,生活空间呈扩张态势,生态空间略有减小,北京、天津、石家庄、唐山、廊坊等都市圈三生空间变化最为活跃,具体表现为生产生活空间快速扩张、生态空间大幅度缩减。［结论］利用土地三生功能评分矩阵法,可以快速有效识别区域三生空间,不仅能体现土地的多功能性,更能反映不同地类功能的差异性。京津冀区域应严格控制人口、城市用地规模,划定耕地数量底线,河北应充分发挥京津冀生态环境支撑区作用,构建结构合理的绿色生态屏障,加快推进京津风沙源治理、太行山绿化、退耕还林、水土保持等生态工程建设,全面实施地下水超采综合治理,发展节水型农林业,加强湿地和农田保护。增加生态用地数量,重点建设成片森林和恢复连篇湿地,扩大生态空间,为京津等大城市发展提供生态空间保障。     

基于格网尺度的密云水库区域“三生”空间功能测度与时空变化分析

[目的]为有目标地进行土地利用调整、科学合理促进区域生态景观建设和生态环境保护提供参考。[方法]文章以北京市密云水库区域为研究对象,基于遥感影像解译的1993年和2016年土地利用现状图,分析了研究区土地利用类型的面积变化和相互转换特征;在剖析土地多功能性的基础上,构建了不同土地利用类型的生产、生活、生态用地的功能指数,从而对土地利用类型进行了"三生"空间的划分,并基于格网尺度揭示了研究区域"三生"空间时空变化规律。[结果](1) 1993—2016年密云水库区域土地利用类型主要为林地和水域,其面积变化以耕地、林地、草地和园地为主。其中,耕地和草地的面积减少,主要转换为园地;林地面积增加,主要来源于草地和荒土地;园地面积增加,主要来源于林地、耕地和草地;林地和园地之间相互转化的面积较大。(2)研究期间,密云水库区域"三生"空间相对稳定,生态功能一直是研究区域的主导功能,1993—2016年生产空间和生活空间扩张,生态空间略有缩小;不同级别保护区范围内的土地利用变化规律与总体变化较为一致,二级保护区范围内的变化相对大。[结论]研究结果可以为精细化评估区域"三生"空间时空变化做参考,并能服务于区域土地利用结构调整和可持续利用及区域生态建设。     

The cheapest hedge

Investors often wish to insure themselves against the payoff of their portfolios falling below a certain value. One way of doing this is by purchasing an appropriate collection of traded securities. However, when the derivatives market is not complete, an investor who seeks portfolio insurance will also be interested in the cheapest hedge that is marketed. Such insurance will not exactly replicate the desired insured-payoff, but it is the cheapest that can be achieved using the market.Analytically, the problem of finding a cheapest insuring portfolio is a linear programming problem. The present paper provides an alternative portfolio dominance approach to solving the minimum-premium insurance portfolio problem. This affords remarkably rich and intuitive insights to determining and describing the minimum-premium insurance portfolios.