The Genetics of Breast and Ovarian Cancer III: A new model of family history with insurance applications

Insurers’ access to genetic test results is often restricted and the only genetic information that might be collected during underwriting in some countries is family history. Previous studies have included family history in a simple way but only for diseases which have no cause other than gene mutations, because then the event ‘affected parent’ contributes all possible information short of a genetic test result. We construct a model of breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) — common diseases with rare genetic variants — in which the development of a family history is represented explicitly as a transition between states, hence as part of the applicant's own life history. This allows the impact of a moratorium to be modelled. We then apply this family history model to life insurance in a semi-Markov framework and to critical illness (CI) insurance in a Markov framework to: (a) estimate premium ratings depending on genotype or family history; and (b) model the potential cost of adverse selection.     

Ruin probabilities and optimal capital allocation for heterogeneous life annuity portfolios

A large part of the actuarial literature is devoted to the derivation of ruin probabilities in various non-life insurance risk models. On the contrary, very few papers deal with ruin probabilities for life insurance portfolios. The difficulties arise from the dependence and non-stationarity of the annual payments made by the insurance company. This paper shows that the ruin probability in case of life annuity portfolios can be computed from algorithms derived by De Pril (1989) and Dhaene & Vandebroek (1995). Approximations for ruin probabilities are discussed. The present article complements the works of Frostig et al. (2003) who considered whole life, endowment, and temporary assurances, and of Denuit & Frostig (2008) who considered homogeneous life annuities portfolios. Here, heterogeneous portfolios (with respect to age and/or face amounts) are studied. Particular attention is paid to the capital allocation problem. The total amount of reserve is shared among the risk classes in order to minimize the ruin probability. It is then fair to charge a higher margin to the risk classes requiring more capital.     

Can Industrial Restructuring Significantly Reduce Energy Consumption? Evidence from China

This article uses China’s input–output (I-O) tables in 2002, 2007, and 2012 to estimate the real energy consumption of each sector after the I-O adjustment. The relationship between the sectors is further analyzed using the utility analysis method based on ecological network analysis. The empirical results show that although the traditional energy-intensive industries are the major energy-consuming sectors from a direct energy consumption perspective, large energy consumption by energy-intensive industries is transferred to downstream industries through intermediate products after the I-O adjustment. Specifically, the building industry and service sector are the sectors with the highest real energy consumption. With the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure, the proportion of energy-intensive sectors in China is declining. However, the development of the service sector and infrastructure construction still requires large intermediate inputs. Thus, industrial restructuring cannot significantly reduce China’s total energy consumption.     

V-Matrix: A wave theory of value creation for big data

This paper examines the “V-Matrix” and provides a wave theory life cycle model of organizations’ adoption of big data. The V-Matrix is based on the big data five “V’s”: Volume, Velocity, Variety, Veracity, and Value and captures and enumerates the different potential states that an organization can go through as part of its adoption and evolution towards big data. We extend the V-Matrix to a state space approach in order to provide a characterization of the adoption of big data technologies in an organization. We develop and use a wave theory of implementation to accommodate a firm’s movement through the V-Matrix. Accordingly, the V-Matrix provides a life cycle model of organizational use of the different aspects of big data. In addition, the model can help organizations’ plan for decision-making use of big data as they anticipate movement from one state to another, as they add big data capabilities. As part of this analysis, the paper examines some of the issues that occur in the different states, including synergies and other issues associated with co-occurrence of different V’s with each other. Finally, this paper integrates the V-Matrix with other data analytic life cycles and examines some of the implications of those models.     

Uncertainty on survival probabilities and solvency capital requirement: application to long-term care insurance

In this paper, we focus on uncertainty issues on disabled lives survival probabilities of LTC insurance policyholders and its consequences on solvency capital requirement. Among the risks affecting long-term care portfolios, special attention is addressed to the table risk, i.e. the risk of unanticipated aggregate mortality, arising from the uncertainty in modeling LTC claimants survival law. The table risk can be thought as the risk of systematic deviations referring not only to a parameter risk but, as well, to any other sources leading to a misinterpretation of the life table resulting for example from an evolution of medical techniques or a change in rules of acceptance. In fine, the idea is to introduce the risk of systematic deviations arising from the uncertainty on the disabled lives death probabilities directly. We analyze the consequences of an error of appreciation on the disabled lives survival probabilities in terms of level of reserves and describe a framework in an Own Risk and Solvency Assessment perspective to measure the gap between the risk profile from the standard formula to the risk analysis specific to the organism.     

Here come the men in black Technology and anxiety in the postmodern age

This review of the film Men in Black argues that what used to be alarming in the science fiction genre has now become its main source of humour. As a reactionary response to the dystopic X-Files, MiB is an elaborate parody which seeks to recuperate ideological ground lost by the X-Files' examination of gender and technology in contemporary culture. Anxiety about the roles of technology, gender and the state are replaced by humour about the notion of anxiety itself. Anxious we may be at the close of the millenium, but MiB tells us to just laugh it all away.     

运用列克西斯图分布编制生命表-双死亡数线性方法

利用按年龄和死亡时间收集的死亡数据 ,本研究提供了一种新的生命表计算方法。该方法的优点是利用了原有的死亡分布模式     

ERP沙盘实训课程的教学研究

EPR沙盘实训课程采用体验式教学方式，可以调动学生学习的积极性与主动性，有利于高职人才培养目标的实现，是一种值得推广的实践教学模式。本文在分析该课程教学特点的基础上，提出该课程进行大众化教学的方案，并对相关的几个问题进行了探讨。     

客户化供应链下顾客生命周期价值计量研究

在客户化供应链中,顾客资产对企业的生存和发展发挥着至关重要的作用,而目前缺乏对顾客生命周期价值计量的有效探讨。为此,基于客户化供应链的研究背景,在综合现有研究顾客生命周期价值不同成果的基础上获得了顾客生命周期价值计量模型,并针对该模型的不足提出了修正方案,从而获得最终的顾客生命周期价值计量模型,为提高供应链企业顾客资产管理水平,促进供应链企业顾客资产的增值提供计量依据。     

数字经济发展对行业利润率的影响——基于2018年投入产出表的分析

数字经济的发展有助于提高产业活力。不同行业中数字经济发展对行业利润率有何影响值得研究。为此,采用中国2018年153个部门的投入产出表数据,用分位数回归法检验数字经济发展对行业利润率的影响。结果表明：当行业利润率处在较低或较高水平时,狭义数字投入水平对行业利润率的影响不显著;当行利润率水平达到中高规模时,广义数字投入水平对行业利润率有显著的正向影响;而当行业利润率水平过高时,其对行业利润的影响并不显著。