中国燃料油期货的套期保值比率与绩效研究

文章首次对自2004年上市以来的SHFE燃料油期货的多期限合约的套期保值比率与绩效进行研究.给出了一个寻求多期限合约的最优套期保值比率的新方法.为克服数据量较小的困难,文章运用新技术--协整序列分解模型进行研究,采用更一般的数据选取方法,发现不同的燃料油期、现货价格序列(日、周和二周)均存在显著的协整关系,在此基础上得到任意期限的最优套期保值比率.结果发现:中国SHFE燃料油期货市场发展良好,其套期保值效果比SHFE铜期货差、比SHFE天然橡胶要好,有望成为世界燃料油定价中心之一.     

增值税转型对财政收入影响的实证研究——以吉林省为例

本文以吉林省为例,实证分析了增值税转型对财政收入的影响。结论表明:局部转型不会给中央财政收入带来较大冲击,短期内地方财政收入存在减少的因素、但影响并不大,对个别以单一产业结构为主的市县财政收入有一定的影响。Granger因果检验表明,增值税对财政收入变化产生的影响效应需要滞后4年才能显现出来;协整分析表明,增值税与财政收入之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,增值税转型政策在短期内会对财政收入产生一定的影响,但这种影响效应较小。     

Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?

Proper scoring rules are used to assess the out-of-sample accuracy of probabilistic forecasts, with different scoring rules rewarding distinct aspects of forecast performance. Herein, we re-investigate the practice of using proper scoring rules to produce probabilistic forecasts that are ‘optimal’ according to a given score and assess when their out-of-sample accuracy is superior to alternative forecasts, according to that score. Particular attention is paid to relative predictive performance under misspecification of the predictive model. Using numerical illustrations, we document several novel findings within this paradigm that highlight the important interplay between the true data generating process, the assumed predictive model and the scoring rule. Notably, we show that only when a predictive model is sufficiently compatible with the true process to allow a particular score criterion to reward what it is designed to reward, will this approach to forecasting reap benefits. Subject to this compatibility, however, the superiority of the optimal forecast will be greater, the greater is the degree of misspecification. We explore these issues under a range of different scenarios and using both artificially simulated and empirical data.     

Aggregate play and welfare in strategic interactions on networks

In recent work by Bramoullé and Kranton (2007), a model for the provision of public goods on a network was presented and relations between equilibria of such a game and properties of the network were established. This model was further extended to include games with imperfect substitutability in Bramoullé et al. (2014). The vast multiplicity of equilibria in such games along with the dramatic changes in equilibria with small changes in network structure, makes it challenging for a system planner to estimate the maximum social welfare of such a game or to devise interventions that enhance this welfare. Our main results address this challenge by providing for arbitrary networks, close approximations to the maximum social welfare and the maximum aggregate play in terms of only network characteristics such as the maximum degree and independence number. For the special case when the underlying network is a tree, we derive formulas which use only the number of nodes and their degrees. These results allow a system planner to assess aggregate outcomes and design interventions for the game, directly from the underlying graph structure, without enumerating all equilibria of the game, thereby significantly simplifying the planner’s problem. A part of our results can be viewed as a logical extension of Pandit and Kulkarni (2018) where the maximum weighted aggregate effort of the model in Bramoullé and Kranton (2007) was characterized as the weighted independence number of the graph.     

A simulation study of an ASEAN monetary union

This paper analyzes some pros and cons of a monetary union for the ASEAN¹ countries, excluding Myanmar. We estimate a stylized open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model for the ASEAN countries. Using the framework of linear quadratic differential games, we contrast the potential gains or losses for these countries due to economic shocks, in case they maintain their status-quo, they coordinate their monetary and/or fiscal policies, or form a monetary union. Assuming for all players open-loop information, we conclude that there are substantial gains from cooperation of monetary authorities. We also find that whether a monetary union improves upon monetary cooperation depends on the type of shocks and the extent of fiscal policy cooperation. Results are based both on a theoretical study of the structure of the estimated model and a simulation study.     

从图论角度对布点问题求解

在日常生产和生活中,往往有一类问题是关于有限的资源在一定条件下的合理利用问题,且要达到最大的利益或者价值。其中包含站点的位置选址问题,通常我们把这类问题归纳为整数规划中的最优问题,利用MATLAB软件我们可以轻松的得到问题的数值解。但对站点的位置选址问题,我们发现利用图论的理论,从图论角度进行分析和求解,可以更轻松。     

A practical approach to sensitivity analysis in linear programming under degeneracy for management decision making

Linear programming (LP) is a widely used tool in management decision making. Theoretically, sensitivity analysis of LP problems provides useful information for the decision maker. In practice, however, most LP software provides misleading sensitivity information if the optimal solution is degenerate. The paper shows how sensitivity analysis of LP problems can be done correctly when the optimal solution is degenerate. A production planning example is presented to illustrate the incorrect sensitivity analysis results automatically provided by most LP solvers. The general characteristics of the misleading results and the possible effects of this incorrect information on management decisions are also discussed.     

Simple agent-based dynamical system models for efficient financial markets: Theory and examples

We propose an agent-based framework, based on simple piecewise linear time-invariant continuous-time dynamical systems models, as a means for describing efficient financial markets. We show by examples that many of the common agent-specific trading strategies occurring in the academic literature, including chartists and fundamentalists of various kinds, can be described in the proposed framework. We present definitions for weak and strong market efficiency and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for them to hold. We present minimal examples of strongly and weakly efficient markets to show that these concepts are natural and easy to satisfy in agent-based models, and that the models can reproduce both statistical and behavioral stylized facts of real markets. We provide examples to demonstrate that the framework can be extended for agents with delays in information processing, as well as for agents with time-varying strategies and for nonlinear market impact functions. We also provide a counterexample to show that the proposed market efficiency concepts may require modification in generalizations for nonlinear trading strategies.     

科技基础设施建设投入与高科技产值的回归分析——以镇江市发展科技基础设施建设为视角

本文利用线性回归方法研究了R&D投入对高科技产业产值的影响,使用SPSS统计软件通过建立了回归方程,结合镇江市的实际进行了实证分析。研究表明R&D投入水平对高科技产业发展是正相关作用,且关系显著。在此基础上,提出了进一步加快发展科技基础设施建设的一系列建议。     

I.J. Bienaymé [1796–1878]: Criticality,Inequality, and Internationalization*

Two striking contributions of Bienaymé to mathematical statistics: (1) a completely correct statemet of the Criticality Theorem for simple branching processes in 1845; and (2) the derivation of the Bienaymé-Chebyshev Inequality, are revisited on the 200th anniversary of his birth. We use writings and archival materials available since the note of Heyde & Seneta (1972) to present a fuller biographical picture. Bienaymé's connections with Buniakovsky and Chebyshev are elucidated, and this role in furthering Chebyshev's international contacts outlined. A concluding section illuminates Bienaymé's understanding of the linear regression of one random variable on another in an actuarial context of random shocks.