铁路退票险费率计算模型构建研究

旅客在办理退票业务时铁路收取阶梯退票费,所退票额可能无法再次售出,对旅客和铁路双方都存在潜在风险。铁路退票险是一种较好的保险服务,能够分担旅客退票和铁路客运资源在合同约定履行期间内的违约风险,创新客运主营业务服务。借鉴交通运输行业的非寿险费率计算方法,构建铁路退票险费率计算模型。通过分析退票业务,识别退票险影响因素,计算退票险费率,进行退票险知识库闭环管理,研究结果表明依据广义线性模型方法计算的纯保费与传统法差别不大,但可以节省较多的时间,因而使用广义线性模型方法计算铁路退票险费率更为合理有效,有助于加快铁路退票险费率的出台。     

Akaike-type criteria and the reliability of inference: Model selection versus statistical model specification

Since the 1990s, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and its various modifications/extensions, including BIC, have found wide applicability in econometrics as objective procedures that can be used to select parsimonious statistical models. The aim of this paper is to argue that these model selection procedures invariably give rise to unreliable inferences, primarily because their choice within a prespecified family of models (a) assumes away the problem of model validation, and (b) ignores the relevant error probabilities. This paper argues for a return to the original statistical model specification problem, as envisaged by Fisher (1922), where the task is understood as one of selecting a statistical model in such a way as to render the particular data a truly typical realization of the stochastic process specified by the model in question. The key to addressing this problem is to replace trading goodness-of-fit against parsimony with statistical adequacy as the sole criterion for when a fitted model accounts for the regularities in the data.     

新型农村合作医疗制度的农民满意度研究——对“新农合”试点县(电白县)的一项问卷调查

新型农村合作医疗制度从2003年试点至今,已处于全面覆盖状态。广东省电白县为实施该制度的一个试点县,2008年达到100%的参合率,但近年来参合率有所下降。文章通过实地走访谈话、设计并派发调查问卷等方式,找寻新型农村合作医疗的参合率下降的原因,通过调查数据整理,建立线性回归模型进行分析。分析结果显示,与新型农村合作医疗的满意度明显相关的因素是参合者的年龄、对新型农村合作医疗的了解度及对新型农村合作医疗的认可度。建议通过加强宣传力度、提高报销比例、扩大报销范围等进一步完善新型农村合作医疗制度。     

中国保险业发展影响因素实证分析

本文研究了现阶段影响我国保险业发展的主要因素,并通过建立计量分析模型进行了实证分析,结果显示现阶段我国保险业的发展主要受居民收入水平、社会固定资产投资以及通货膨胀的影响,其中居民收入水平、社会固定资产投资与保险市场成正相关的关系,通货膨胀与其成负相关的关系。     

Decomposing excess commuting: a Monte Carlo simulation approach

Excess or wasteful commuting is measured as the proportion of actual commute that is over minimum (optimal) commute when assuming that people could freely swap their homes and jobs in a city. Studies usually rely on survey data to define actual commute, and measure the optimal commute at an aggregate zonal level by Linear Programming (LP). Travel time from a survey could include reporting errors and respondents might not be representative of the areas they reside; and the derived optimal commute at an aggregate areal level is also subject to the zonal effect. Both may bias the estimate of excess commuting. Based on the 2006–2010 Census for Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) data in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, this research uses a Monte Carlo approach to simulate individual resident workers and individual jobs within census tracts, estimate commute distance and time from journey-to-work trips, and define the optimal commute based on simulated individual locations. Findings indicate that both reporting errors and the use of aggregate zonal data contribute to miscalculation of excess commuting.     

Bayesian Nash equilibrium and variational inequalities

This paper provides a sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of a Bayesian Nash equilibrium by regarding it as a solution of a variational inequality. The payoff gradient of a game is defined as a vector whose component is a partial derivative of each player’s payoff function with respect to the player’s own action. If the Jacobian matrix of the payoff gradient is negative definite for each state, then a Bayesian Nash equilibrium is unique. This result unifies and generalizes the uniqueness of an equilibrium in a complete information game by Rosen (1965) and that in a team by Radner (1962). In a Bayesian game played on a network, the Jacobian matrix of the payoff gradient coincides with the weighted adjacency matrix of the underlying graph.     

Measuring the substitution effects between High Speed Rail and air transport in Spain

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the impact that the expansion of the HSR network has had on air transport in Spain by estimating the substitution effect between the two types of transportation. This paper considers the way that the HSR network has grown and how this growth could have affected air transport dynamically. The findings show that a dynamic vision of this substitution rate should be adopted, as opposed to assuming that the rate is constant, as has been the case in previous references. Although the rate varies significantly over the study period, only 13.9% of HSR passenger demand was found to have come from air travel during the 1999–2012 period, meaning that HSR and airlines would seem to offer more independent services than at first it might appear. This confirms the hypothesis as to the HSR’s great ability to generate its own demand. The substitution rate between the two transport modes seems to be closely linked to the way that any new stations are incorporated into the HSR network. Convergence between the seasonality of HSR and air transport has also been examined. The results show that it is difficult to talk of a real HSR transport network in Spain.     

宏观税率对国债依存度影响的实证分析

近年来,国内有些学者认为积极的财政政策应逐渐淡出,然而2008年国际金融危机的发生,使得我国在今后的一段时间内,将继续实施积极的财政政策。本文以改革开放以来为研究时间段,选取国债依存度Y为因变量,国债依存度的滞后一期Y1和宏观税率X1为自变量,通过协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,有效地揭示了它们之间的相关关系。研究结果表明宏观税率对国债依存度存在着负向作用。本文通过以上结论,以期为政府继续实施积极财政政策,为保持我国经济平稳较快发展提供理论支持。     

保险周期存在性的协整模型检验：基于中国市场的分析

本文对宏观经济波动可能引致保险周期的内在机理作了理论分析,然后利用协整模型并辅以误差修正模型验证了中国的现实情况,发现保险行业运行在长期来看与经济体系的发展较为一致,其周期特性得到间接证明,但经济的短期扰动对保险行业影响不大,同时,保险经营业绩与利率变动负相关,产险业的发展与宏观经济的联系不太紧密。