Exchangeability, Correlation, and Bayes' Effect

We examine the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics in making statements about the relationship between observable values. We show how standard models under both paradigms can be based on an assumption of exchangeability and we derive useful covariance and correlation results for values from an exchangeable sequence. We find that such values are never negatively correlated, and are generally positively correlated under the models used in Bayesian statistics. We discuss the significance of this result as well as a phenomenon which often follows from the differing methodologies and practical applications of these paradigms – a phenomenon we call Bayes' effect.     

四川省产业结构与就业结构的动态关系

产业结构与就业结构的关系协调与否是衡量一个地区国民经济健康发展的标志.本文在描述四川省改革开放以来产业结构与就业结构演变趋势的基础上,及进行相关度、就业弹性、结构偏离度分析,研究四川省产业结构与就业结构的动态变化关系,并提出相应的政策建议.     

审计意见与大股东控制力的相关性研究

文章选取2005年1235家A股非金融类上市公司作为样本,建立模型实证审计意见与大股东控制力的关系.发现非标准审计意见与大股东控制力正相关,与股权分置改革和上市公司的盈余管理程度负相关;ST公司、重亏公司、资产负债率较高的公司更容易获得非标准审计意见.本文政策建议为:限制金字塔多层和交叉多重持股;实行国有股缩股和累退投票制度;规定更合理的股东大会决议的最低股权数;审计师应更加关注上市公司的盈余管理程度,并出具恰当的审计意见.     

开征累进物业税的战略构想

地价过快上涨和投机需求旺盛是造成房价不合理上涨的两个重要原因。在城乡同时开征累进物业税可以解决上述问题。累进物业税的开征对象包括城市住宅、城市已出让土地及农村住宅。在城乡共同开征物业税的基础上,将物业税归为地方税种,在中央和地方之间重新分配土地出让金,弱化地方抬高地价的内在冲动。     

中国国内地方保护问题的调查与分析

本文通过对地方保护主义调查问卷的分析 ,回答了当前国内地方保护的状况、政府致力于减弱地方保护的政策和努力是否有效、现阶段地方保护的方法和手段所呈现的特征以及今后政策的着力点等问题。同时 ,在重点行业管理、劳动力流动、司法公正、财税制度等方面提出了削减地区间贸易和要素流动壁垒、抑制地方保护行为的政策建议。     

Transfer payments from the central government to the local governments and the local governments' efforts on taxation: taking China as an example

The influence of the transfer payments from the central government to the local governments on the local governments' efforts on taxation must be taken into consideration by every country for the design of the transfer payments. Based on the theoretical analysis on the influence of the transfer payments from the central government to the local governments on the local governments'payments, this paper indicates that the local governments'efforts on taxation depends on the demand elasticity of the district for public goods. It increases with the increase of the elasticityλ.Judge the degree of the local government's efforts on taxation by measureλ. After an empirical analysis on the transfer payments from the central government to the local governments from 2000 to 2004, thins paper gets the conclusion that the local governments'efforts on taxation abates with the increase of supporting payments or with the increase of the ratio of transfer payments to local willing public payments. Under specific circumstances, the higher the ratio of transfer payments to the local fiscal expenditure is, the smaller the local governments' efforts on taxation is under the central payments, whereas the higher the local income is, the higher the efforts is under the eentral payments. Based on this. this paper gives the meanmg of its corresponding policies.     

Do Inflation‐Linked Bonds Still Diversify?

The diversifying power of inflation-linked (IL) bonds relative to traditional asset classes has changed significantly. In this paper, we study the dynamics of conditional volatilities and correlations for three asset classes, IL bonds, nominal bonds and equities, in the USA and Europe. Using a DCC-MVGARCH for the period 1997–2007, we highlight the change that took place in 2003. Although IL bonds once had definite diversification power, they are now highly correlated with nominal bonds and have reached similar volatility levels. As a result, the two asset classes are practically substitutable. This seems to be due to more stable inflation expectations and to a more liquid IL bond market. Although diversification was a valuable reason for introducing IL bonds in a global portfolio before 2003, this is no longer the case. Dynamic portfolio optimisation using our estimates of conditional correlations and volatilities clearly demonstrates that the optimal weight of IL bonds in a portfolio decreased sharply in 2003 in favour of nominal bonds and equities.     

The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measures for Exponential Additive Processes

In this paper, we will consider exponential additive processes as a financial market model. Under a mild condition, we will determine the minimal entropy martingale measures (MEMMs) for the exponential additive processes. To this end, we will prepare several results on the exponential moment of additive processes and integrals based on them. As an application of our result, we will deduce optimal strategy for exponential utility maximization problem. We will also investigate our result through several examples, such as time-dependent versions of double Poisson model, Merton model and Kou model.     

Linear Correlation and EVT: Properties and Caveats

Due to the current credit crisis, critical questions are beingasked concerning some of the quantitative methods used in riskmanagement under the Basel II proposals. In this paper I havegiven a critical look at Extreme Value Theory and Copulas. Boththeir potential applications and the possible caveats are discussed,and this mainly with the subprime crisis as a background.     

担保债权凭证之评价——多因子模型和KMV模型之探讨

探讨担保债权凭证商品之评价,包含缩减式模型及结构式模型两种研究方法;前者以多因子相关性模型,而後者以KMV模型为方法探讨之主轴。多因子相关性模型中资产的违约分配函数分别假设为指数、韦伯及Burr分配;再分别结合Gauss Copula或t5 Copula函数,估计商品的信用价差。实证分析以台湾“玉山银行债券资产证券化特殊目的信托2005—1受益证券”为例。实证研究结果发现,指数分配之信用价差估计值偏大,Burr分配估计值最小;t5 Copula函数之信用价差估计值都较Gauss Copula函数之估计值大。此外,将数据作适当调整後应用KMV模型之信用价差估计值比多因子相关性模型之估计值大。